Thoughts-Pitt/Hous and more..

Couple of games:
Pitt at Houston: How much do you value Moehler? A twenty cent favorite at home playing against a Pittsburgh team who's hit 390 or better with this lineup.

Moehler Home starts 7.1 ERA however last 3 have been 2.65.
Maholm Road starts 6 plus ERA.

Like a possible play on over however Gorman is 4-12 so far on over unders.

Houston bullpen has been better.

Looking at 3 or 4 more..

I've been flipping from looking at Houston to looking at Pittsburgh, both definitely have some advantages going for them I gotta say. I'd feel comfortable backing either side at their current lines so I decided to just lay off this one and see how it plays out.

St. Louis @ Milawaukee:

In a pivotal matchup the boyz meet up in the Central. Gallardo has been lights out holding the Cardinal hitters to .150 or less. He has a 2.4 era at home and last 7 a 2.00 era.

Wainwright holds a .230 batting average against.

St. Louis bullpen is better vs Milwaukee hitters. Wainwrights ERA of 4.80 with a 5-1 record warrant a 40 cent favorite by Milwaukee.

Looking at Washington play as well

Gordon Gekko said:

Couple of games:
Pitt at Houston: How much do you value Moehler? A twenty cent favorite at home playing against a Pittsburgh team who's hit 390 or better with this lineup.

Moehler Home starts 7.1 ERA however last 3 have been 2.65.
Maholm Road starts 6 plus ERA.

Like a possible play on over however Gorman is 4-12 so far on over unders.

Houston bullpen has been better.

Looking at 3 or 4 more..

Click to expand...

I am spotting value on the Astros (bought them on the overnight). However, I do not feel that the value resides in Moehler or Maholm, as I found them to be more undervalued yesterday and carrying about the same value disparity tommorrow as they do today. Looks like the market and I have differing opions on the net worth of both teams bullpens and lineups.

Gordon Gekko said:

St. Louis @ Milawaukee:

In a pivotal matchup the boyz meet up in the Central. Gallardo has been lights out holding the Cardinal hitters to .150 or less. He has a 2.4 era at home and last 7 a 2.00 era.

Wainwright holds a .230 batting average against.

St. Louis bullpen is better vs Milwaukee hitters. Wainwrights ERA of 4.80 with a 5-1 record warrant a 40 cent favorite by Milwaukee.

Click to expand...

In my opinion, the Brewers don't warrant trading as a 40 cent favorite. I value the game as Brewers -126/Cardinals +126 (subject to change after lineup information). Wainwright worth has consistently been not fully quantified by oddsmakers, but they are slowly catching on. The market was quick to buy down the Cardinals since the open to allow them to trade at a more efficient price. Will probaly see some slight buydown heading into the lineup card.

Buffett,

I have the Yankees efficiently priced with Sabathia having success vs Twins and Twins somewhat inefficiency to hit LHP.

Washington is very interesting to me. Zimmerman over last three has pitched well and Hammel at home owns a 7 ERA although Zimmerman hosts a 5.4 ERA as well. Both bullpens seem terrible although Colorado I'm sure is over inflated due to Coors field.

Trying to value from top to bottom best buys on the board, as we like to call them.

GEKKO

Gordon Gekko said:

Buffett,

I have the Yankees efficiently priced with Sabathia having success vs Twins and Twins somewhat inefficiency to hit LHP.

Washington is very interesting to me. Zimmerman over last three has pitched well and Hammel at home owns a 7 ERA although Zimmerman hosts a 5.4 ERA as well. Both bullpens seem terrible although Colorado I'm sure is over inflated due to Coors field.

Trying to value from top to bottom best buys on the board, as we like to call them.

GEKKO

Click to expand...

For what ever reason, I don't think oddsmakers or market participants are fully valuing the Yankees during their latest run, which is an inverse reaction to how the market has reacted to past Yankees runs (they typically bid up an already overvalued Yankees price). Sabathia has been one pitcher in which I have not bet much on or against, but he too seems to be underpriced right now.

Baker has been dominant of late, but has yet to prove he can do it against a quality lineup. A lineup filled with left handed bats has given him problems in the past. So have ones with power.

I had the Nats last night as a small play. Didnt pan out. However, I don't see them coming with value today. I think the oddsmakers accurately valued the line at the open, and I am not sure why the market is electing to bid down the Nats against a hot team, at home, and against a pitcher that has put forth 5 QS in his last 6. The market seems to have a real liking for Zimmeran, but may be getting ahead of themselves, as he was backed by a pretty bullish valuation on the open.

As far as the best play, my biggest bet currently unhedged is the Marlins. But I bought in on the overnight with an average lay around -120, when Hanley's status was less encouraging.

The market seems to have corrected a lot of "off" lines that were left on the table last night.
Best of luck today.

Thanks Buffett..

Good luck with your plays as well. 120 nice price. Good reasoning on Colorado.

GEKKO