It seem everyday there is one game that seem s too good to be true. Today, that game for me is my Chicago Cubs. The game is a pickem with Vasquez going up against Zambrano. While I like Vasquez he is nowhere near the talent of Zambrano who is coming off of a very strong performance against a much stronger hitting team(Milw). The Cubs finally have their whole team back and have the 4th best home record in baseball while Atlanta is 4 games under on the road. I believe the Cubs hold an edge in pitching,hitting,bench and bullpen but are still a pickem. Seems way too good to be true. Let's see if I am right.:think2:
The market is way too efficient and simply does not work in a manner to allow sucker plays to exist. I wish this forum would put these conspiracies to rest, as it is simply counterproductive.
That said, I think the Cubs are coming with value too. The market (like myself) valued Dempster the same as Zambrano in this particular game (Dempster was originally slated to start). I think the disconnect between my valuation and the markets is now with Zambrano (simply because Dempster was carrying the same undervaluation), but rather Vasquez, who I think is pitching at an unsustianable level. Jones not being in the lineup is also not reflected in the market price in my opinion.
Although the Cubs are back to full health, they are without Soto and Bradley in their starting lineup.
I would certainly reaccess your valuation process if you are valuing the Cubs bullpen over the Braves.
I am interested to see with the market takes this line (if anywhere) in the next 15 minutes.
I unloaded on the Marlins last night with an average -120 buy in. I just sold off my entire position buy buying the Giants at +130,
Without Ramirez, the current market price seems efficient. I would not be suprised to see the line drop another 5 cents as the market continues to buy down the Giants on the Hanley news and arb out outstanding positions.
At the current price, I see no reason to reccommend either team. There may not be another player that has a higher value over replacement than Hanley.
Best of luck.
Edit: The line just fell another 3 cents while typing this. May still have another 5 cents to go.
