Analysis for Thursday

GordonGekko · Jul 9, 2009

Looking at the following: Absolutely will not bet Totals this year. 8-1 after 4 in LA and can't get 1 run. Not happy on that one. Ohh well..Moving forward.

Looking at Piniero who's had small success vs Milwaukee. 5 or 6 players expected in lineup have hit Parra well.

What's your thoughts on the CWS line losing momentum? Clayton Richard has been hit by Cleveland but is someone expecting big day out of Huff?

Hernandez at a high price vs Rangers? He's been great so far, does it continue? Hunter with no respect with this line? 3 starts only 1 QS so far.

Colorado and Cook who's pitched well also dropping. He's 5-1 last 7 and out of 15 starts 9 have been quality? How well is Chipper?

I'm analyzing some of the expected lineups.

GEKKO

parlayallday · Jul 9, 2009

I dont understand your analaysis its a bunch of jumble and questions.

GordonGekko · Jul 9, 2009

parlayallday said:
I dont understand your analaysis its a bunch of jumble and questions.

It's more of an input thread. It'll develop as I research. Sorry for confusion.

WannaBet888 · Jul 9, 2009

Que Paso?

parlayallday · Jul 9, 2009

no biggie, i just was a little confused

GordonGekko · Jul 9, 2009

Putting a small play on Tampa Bay. I've continued to fade Toronto and will do so today. Halladay is a #1 on any staff in the Major leagues. He faces a tough Tampa Bay team that has been playing well of late. Toronto seems to be going the other day. I suspect that Halladay will pitch well today but predict Price will too. Are we bullish on Price...maybe but his IP to Er at home are keeping us there. Price hasn't had command but his upside is there. He's SO 23 in 20 innings and allowed 16 hits.

The rays lineup is hitting 48-159 and a batting average of 302 against Halladay.

Tampa last 10 (6-4)
Toronto 10 (2-8)

GEKKO

buffettgambler · Jul 9, 2009

I entered a large position on the Rays last night at +124. I am leaving this position unhedged despite the obvious intraday buy down on a price oddsmakers had no business puting up yesterday, as I have increased my valuation on the Rays due to lineup card information.

I was not suprised at all when I skimmed a couple forums last night and saw posts on how "cheap" Holliday is at -130 and maybe the game is a "trap". Somewhat of a microcosm of what direction these forums have gone.

Sure Price can blow up and Holliday can pitch a game. But if one really thinks that the odds of this happening is not overly reflected in the price, has some catch up work to do. This is the second start in a row the market is telling oddmakers that they are overly bullish on Halliday, and if they put forth an inflated price tag on him, they will correct it with a 10% buy down.

Gordon Gekko said:
Putting a small play on Tampa Bay. I've continued to fade Toronto and will do so today. Halladay is a #1 on any staff in the Major leagues. He faces a tough Tampa Bay team that has been playing well of late. Toronto seems to be going the other day. I suspect that Halladay will pitch well today but predict Price will too. Are we bullish on Price...maybe but his IP to Er at home are keeping us there. Price hasn't had command but his upside is there. He's SO 23 in 20 innings and allowed 16 hits.

The rays lineup is hitting 48-159 and a batting average of 302 against Halladay.

Tampa last 10 (6-4)
Toronto 10 (2-8)

GEKKO

GordonGekko · Jul 9, 2009

St. Louis @ Milwaukee:

Piniero @ Miller owns a 2.70 ERA with 13.1 innings pitched along with 8 SO. As a starter he keeps you in the game and St. Louis seems to also. Last 3 starts for Joel, he's owned a 1.99 ERA along with 22 innings of work 18 hits and only 2 walks. He needs his defense to play behind him and the Cardinals have been providing it all year long.

Parra on the other hand owns a 3-10 team record and over an 8 era. He has pitched well at home with 4 out of 5 being QS. Will he be able to provide the Wandy start today vs the Cardinals.

Both bullpens have been strong and expect a 1-2 run game again, but the Cards pull it out today.

GEKKO

GordonGekko · Jul 9, 2009

Buffett,

Great price at 124. I've got to build my bankroll to get in the night before. What's ur sportsbook that you feel most comfortable with?

buffettgambler · Jul 9, 2009

Gordon Gekko said:
Buffett,

Great price at 124. I've got to build my bankroll to get in the night before. What's ur sportsbook that you feel most comfortable with?

As far as overnights and the safety of money, Pinny (for "non US"), 5dimes (very small limits on overnights), and Bet Jam. Just have to be creative of overcoming the obstacles each one of these books put forth (limits, funding for US, ect).

On a side notem usually when a team is undervalued in two straight games against another team, the disconnect between the market and the handicappers valuation usually lies in the bullpen and lineup rather than the starting pitching. I bet on the Yankees in the first two games of the series against the Twins. However, I am now spotting value on the other side, as the combination of oddsmakers are now starting to increase the valuation for the Yankees, an apprarent direct valuation transfer for Aceves in the bullpen role to the starting role, and their continual bearish sentiment on Liriano has all overcome the disconnect I had with the market with the two teams bullpens and lineups.

GordonGekko · Jul 9, 2009

buffettgambler said:
As far as overnights and the safety of money, Pinny (for "non US"), 5dimes (very small limits on overnights), and Bet Jam. Just have to be creative of overcoming the obstacles each one of these books put forth (limits, funding for US, ect).

On a side notem usually when a team is undervalued in two straight games against another team, the disconnect between the market and the handicappers valuation usually lies in the bullpen and lineup rather than the starting pitching. I bet on the Yankees in the first two games of the series against the Twins. However, I am now spotting value on the other side, as the combination of oddsmakers are now starting to increase the valuation for the Yankees, an apprarent direct valuation transfer for Aceves in the bullpen role to the starting role, and their continual bearish sentiment on Liriano has all overcome the disconnect I had with the market with the two teams bullpens and lineups.

I was thinking the same thing as he's done an outstanding job but I really see the M and M boyz having a decent day along with the whole lineup. If we expect a bullpen pitcher to keep pitching at the form that he's at, we'd expect way too much.

I'll have a good opportunity within the next two hours to view the games, do you see any that stand out to you? I'm interested in this Seattle game as well as there is a heavy price on Fernandez against a team that is surprising most. The market throws out -200 on opening price looking for betters on Texas?

buffettgambler · Jul 9, 2009

Gordon Gekko said:
Looking at the following: Absolutely will not bet Totals this year. 8-1 after 4 in LA and can't get 1 run. Not happy on that one. Ohh well..Moving forward.

Looking at Piniero who's had small success vs Milwaukee. 5 or 6 players expected in lineup have hit Parra well.

What's your thoughts on the CWS line losing momentum? Clayton Richard has been hit by Cleveland but is someone expecting big day out of Huff?

Hernandez at a high price vs Rangers? He's been great so far, does it continue? Hunter with no respect with this line? 3 starts only 1 QS so far.

Colorado and Cook who's pitched well also dropping. He's 5-1 last 7 and out of 15 starts 9 have been quality? How well is Chipper?

I'm analyzing some of the expected lineups.

GEKKO

I entered a large position on the Brewers on the overnight at the same price as it is currently standing. Will leave it unhedge pending lineup valuation changes. The line value lies all in the pitcher valuation. Pienero right now is a pitcher that is what is called being priced at peak valuation. He has overachieved long enough for oddsmakers to bite and price him at level simply not sustianable. Parra is being priced at out of favor as well. He has his embedded risks and struggled during his minor league stint that can lead to another rought outing. But he has upside, and would prefer to back him before the market realizes it.

Nothing material in the line movement in the White Sox game in my opinion. Typically such intraday fluctuations in prices are customary when involving two rookie pithers, as both the market and oddsmakers have a hard time pricing the game. I got in on the Indians (semi-small play) last night at 3 cents higher than the current non-vig line. Oddsmakers seem to be giving up on the Indians, something I am not ready to do.

I entered my position on the Rangers this morning at it's current price. Simply oddmakers are over shooting the disparity between the two starters, and this is coming from someone with a bearish valuation on Hunter.

As of now, the Rockies line seems fair in my opinion. I am valuing Hanson well below current form, so my guess is the Braves may come with value in the following games to come.

buffettgambler · Jul 9, 2009

Gordon Gekko said:
I was thinking the same thing as he's done an outstanding job but I really see the M and M boyz having a decent day along with the whole lineup. If we expect a bullpen pitcher to keep pitching at the form that he's at, we'd expect way too much.

I'll have a good opportunity within the next two hours to view the games, do you see any that stand out to you? I'm interested in this Seattle game as well as there is a heavy price on Fernandez against a team that is surprising most. The market throws out -200 on opening price looking for betters on Texas?

I am not sure why books through out the Mariners at a-175 no-vig line. It jumped out to me right away as off, and this is coming from a person who has been net short on the Rangers of late. The market right now seems to be in a agreement with books, but I am expecting the line to drop heading into the close, which should allow me to beat the closing line. The thing that confuses me is that I deemed Hunter overvalued in his last two starts, and he has given no reason for a structual change in his valuation, as he has pitched better than expected. This appears to be a pure overvaluation on Felix.

I am heavily postioned on Underdogs today, so the acompanying high variance can lead to a down day.

Aside from the games metioned, I positioned myself on the Padres last night. The position I enetered was 2x Kelly Criterion ratio I use suggested, as I am using half my position as a pure speculation trade
on the expected buydown on this really inflated line. I have yet to hedge, but the line is moving exactly how I wanted it.

I also have a few other underdogs today. The only fav I currently have (aside from the Twins) is the Red Sox -188.

TheHungerForMore · Jul 9, 2009

What do you guys think about Houston? I feel Nationals are getting way too much respect. Considering when Astros have the better/bigger advantage in the bullpen, especially with the day off. Russ Ortiz looking comfortable and putting up really good numbers at home. They hit 27 points higher against LHP. This will be the second time they will see Lannan this season, and have number of hitters lineup have good success against in a few at bats.

TheHungerForMore · Jul 9, 2009

buffettgambler said:
I am not sure why books through out the Mariners at a-175 no-vig line. It jumped out to me right away as off, and this is coming from a person who has been net short on the Rangers of late. The market right now seems to be in a agreement with books, but I am expecting the line to drop heading into the close, which should allow me to beat the closing line. The thing that confuses me is that I deemed Hunter overvalued in his last two starts, and he has given no reason for a structual change in his valuation, as he has pitched better than expected. This appears to be a pure overvaluation on Felix.

I am heavily postioned on Underdogs today, so the acompanying high variance can lead to a down day.

Aside from the games metioned, I positioned myself on the Padres last night. The position I enetered was 2x Kelly Criterion ratio I use suggested, as I am using half my position as a pure speculation trade
on the expected buydown on this really inflated line. I have yet to hedge, but the line is moving exactly how I wanted it.

I also have a few other underdogs today. The only fav I currently have (aside from the Twins) is the Red Sox -188.

100% agree on that. Texas bats have been hot, winning 7 of last 8. Seattle's bullpen is looking like a big mess right now. With that choke job yesterday, they can't be feeling good. Mariners bat aren't the most consistent, which can keep Rangers in the game even if Felix is throwing a gem. In my opinion you gotta jump on +170 or more.

buffettgambler · Jul 9, 2009

I am going to have to disagree with you on this one, and this is coming from someone that has been riding the Astros at home of late. Ortiz has been accomplishing a lot with smoke and mirrors. He has been known to start recent years off well, make people think "it is different this year", only to witness significant regression. I prefer to bet against him when he has the oddsmakers fooled than wait for his downturn (which potentially may have started last time out).

Yes, the Astros have the better bullpen and lineup, but Lannahan is one of the better innings eaters in baseball and depreciates the worth of the bullpen edge the Astros have. Facing the Astros already appears to be an edge for him. His savvy style and ability to adapt has allowed him to gain the advantage over the hitters rather than the other way around when facing the same team the second time out this year.

I got in on the Nats in the overnight at a better price than what is currently offered. The market seems to agree with me for the time being.
Best of luck.

TheHungerForMore said:
What do you guys think about Houston? I feel Nationals are getting way too much respect. Considering when Astros have the better/bigger advantage in the bullpen, especially with the day off. Russ Ortiz looking comfortable and putting up really good numbers at home. They hit 27 points higher against LHP. This will be the second time they will see Lannan this season, and have number of hitters lineup have good success against in a few at bats.

buffettgambler · Jul 9, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
100% agree on that. Texas bats have been hot, winning 7 of last 8. Seattle's bullpen is looking like a big mess right now. With that choke job yesterday, they can't be feeling good. Mariners bat aren't the most consistent, which can keep Rangers in the game even if Felix is throwing a gem. In my opinion you gotta jump on +170 or more.

I have priced the Mariners bullpen as a big mess from day one, which has lead this team to be my biggest net short year to date (since the market has elected to price their bullpen at a higher worth). So far my valuation on the bullpen has been off (altough I am up in games I have bet against this team), but I am expecting a lot more of recent performance out of this bullpen.

GordonGekko · Jul 9, 2009

buffettgambler said:
I am not sure why books through out the Mariners at a-175 no-vig line. It jumped out to me right away as off, and this is coming from a person who has been net short on the Rangers of late. The market right now seems to be in a agreement with books, but I am expecting the line to drop heading into the close, which should allow me to beat the closing line. The thing that confuses me is that I deemed Hunter overvalued in his last two starts, and he has given no reason for a structual change in his valuation, as he has pitched better than expected. This appears to be a pure overvaluation on Felix.

I am heavily postioned on Underdogs today, so the acompanying high variance can lead to a down day.

Aside from the games metioned, I positioned myself on the Padres last night. The position I enetered was 2x Kelly Criterion ratio I use suggested, as I am using half my position as a pure speculation trade
on the expected buydown on this really inflated line. I have yet to hedge, but the line is moving exactly how I wanted it.

I also have a few other underdogs today. The only fav I currently have (aside from the Twins) is the Red Sox -188.

I agree with the high variance comes profitable rewards, and I looked at the number of dogs that had an expected win chance and lets hope for a decent day. Over the long run the risk of 175 (not sure on number) dogs or more should have a negative expectancy but short term lets look for some value and I believe you've found it.

TheHungerForMore · Jul 9, 2009

buffettgambler said:
I am going to have to disagree with you on this one, and this is coming from someone that has been riding the Astros at home of late. Ortiz has been accomplishing a lot with smoke and mirrors. He has been known to start recent years off well, make people think "it is different this year", only to witness significant regression. I prefer to bet against him when he has the oddsmakers fooled than wait for his downturn (which potentially may have started last time out).

Yes, the Astros have the better bullpen and lineup, but Lannahan is one of the better innings eaters in baseball and depreciates the worth of the bullpen edge the Astros have. Facing the Astros already appears to be an edge for him. His savvy style and ability to adapt has allowed him to gain the advantage over the hitters rather than the other way around when facing the same team the second time out this year.

I got in on the Nats in the overnight at a better price than what is currently offered. The market seems to agree with me for the time being.
Best of luck.

Ha. Your post made me look like a square. I've got long ways to learn in MLB.

Smoke_O · Jul 9, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
Ha. Your post made me look like a square. I've got long ways to learn in MLB.

The Nats will find a way to lose...Im betting the 'Stros after I see how long the suspended game takes. If it goes long and Houston has to see a lot of pitchers before Lannan...its a no play then