ASJ's Baseball System Thread

ALSportsJunkie · Jul 10, 2009

Hi everyone-

Going to start this thread to keep track of what I hope will be a fun (and profitable) system. Thought of this the other day and have started plotting all the data I need on a spreadsheet. Basically the system works like this:

- Record total's and whether or not each team played over or under
- If any team has played 3 games in a row either going over or under, bet them to go opposite of the trend on the next game
- Team record, pitching matchups, or any other stat does not matter

I will be using a chase system starting with very small amount of money to begin with. For my purposes, the chase will begin with a 5$ bet and end if I lose 3 games in a row. Going back three days, I have 2 plays for today. They are St. Louis and Milwaukee over the total. Lets get the ball rolling and see how I end up! :103631605

St. Louis Over Bet 5.25 to win 5.00
Milwaukee Over Bet 6.10 to win 5.00

(I know St. Louis has already won - played it earlier from my iphone. I hate typing lengthy posts on it though, so I had to wait to explain my system. BOL everyone!)

BAMARED · Jul 11, 2009

nice going

ALSportsJunkie · Jul 11, 2009

2-0 so far. Nice way to start the system I would say. There are 3 plays on the board which fit the criteria for today.

Dodgers under 9.5 bet 5.25 to win 5.00
Nationals under 9.5 bet 5.75 to win 5.00
Oakland over - (Play is currently off the board, will bet and update as soon as it is available)

Total profit after 1 day - $10.00

ALSportsJunkie · Jul 11, 2009

Added oakland over 8.5 risk 5.60 to win 5.00. Bol everyone!

serif · Jul 11, 2009

Good thought but be sure that its back tested. A popular version of this is waiting up to 5 gms (maybe even 6 gms) then start chasing and chase up to 6 games in a series which can gut your bankroll. Even that system is good but not great and you need to get ready for some heavy bets when they come callin.

What can help maybe is to capp your chase with certain parameters to filter out poor matchups. Just some simple mechanical filters that eliminate bad games.

Just sayin from personal experience sticking to just one parameter chasing will go bust. But good luck so far man.....

Bring it home for Jerome!!!!!!

BAMARED · Jul 11, 2009

ALSportsJunkie · Jul 12, 2009

4-0 with my first chase starting on the nationals tomorrow. I might adjust the chase to allow for more games depending on further research. With such small amounts in play, it shouldn't be a problem to run a 7-8 game chase. We shall see though, bol to everyone tomorrow

ALSportsJunkie · Jul 12, 2009

Several plays on the board for me to day, including game 1 of my chase on the nationals.

Yankees under 9 bet 5.75 to win 5.00
CWS / MIN under 8.5 bet 6.00 to win 5.00
TOR / BAL over 9 bet. 5.65 to win 5.00
DET over 9 bet 5.75 to win 5.00

Game one chase on Nats - bet 11.50 to win 10.45

BOL today everyone

ALSportsJunkie · Jul 12, 2009

Finished the day 2-2-1. Won my first game chase with the Nationals, so I am happy with the result for the day. I did encounter my first problem though - the TOR/BAL and CWS/MIN games which lost had all four teams in the chase system. Since they were playing against one another, I just made each game as 1 unit...however now they will be on opposite sides so I need to decide if I am going to use four chase bets or decide on two teams to chase and let the other two go. Good timing for the allstar break though, I will tweek the system and be back with a plan that will hopefully take care of problems like that. BOL to everyone!

System plays 6-0 Profit : $30.00 +/- a few cents @)

Chase currently in session:
Toronto Game : 1
Baltimore Game : 1
Chicago WS Game : 1
Minnesota Game : 1