Wall Street Sunday

GordonGekko · Jul 12, 2009

I'm looking at taking these games:

LA Dodgers +127
Boston -300
Washington +103

Short reasoning:

KERSHAW has been good all year and the Dodgers still have a better lineup, bullpen. Gallardo has been good but 4 QS out of 9 at home.

BECKETT is back to being Beckett.

Zimmerman makes it two in a row.

Looking at a number of others...Do you see anything else?

34islucky · Jul 12, 2009

Broxton is likely taking the day off. He had a cortisone shot in his right big toe. Just saying. I'm on the Dodgers myself.

buffettgambler · Jul 12, 2009

In my opinion, only small to medium sized values on the overnights aside from the Yankees. It looks like the market is ignoring the injury news to Hunter and Guerrero, as the rest of the lineup is masking this material deprecation in lineup worth with unsustainable play.

What % chance do you think the Red Sox have of winning today?

GordonGekko · Jul 12, 2009

buffettgambler said:
In my opinion, only small to medium sized values on the overnights aside from the Yankees. It looks like the market is ignoring the injury news to Hunter and Guerrero, as the rest of the lineup is masking this material deprecation in lineup worth with unsustainable play.

What % chance do you think the Red Sox have of winning today?

80% chance...I took the RL..Couldn't pull the trigger with the juice..

How do you like this Bergesen kid? I saw him personally.

GordonGekko · Jul 12, 2009

No Ramirez in Chicago's lineup...St. Louis?

buffettgambler · Jul 12, 2009

Gordon Gekko said:
No Ramirez in Chicago's lineup...St. Louis?

That line seems spot on. One line that seems to be moving in the opposite direction with the change in my intrinsic value is the Astros. In my opinion, the market has now provided them with some attractive value.

Bergensen looks really good so far, but I don't feel his current form or anything near his current form will last much longer. He will probably be more overvalued than undervalued, but just not against the Jays.

Keep in mind, that at most books you are paying the same juice for the Sox RL and ML, and at matchbook, the vig is less on the ML.

Best of luck today.

GordonGekko · Jul 12, 2009

Any thoughts on the Twins? Is Buehrle at +120 a decent price. I'm interested that Baker has had 9 Starts at home and 4 quality. Line moving in Twins direction as well.

I put a small play on Bergensen. I'll keep fading the Blue Jays.

Last night I put a medium sized play on CC. I was spot on with your thinking. No way can that lineup keep performing without Vlad and Hunter, especially against top notch pitching.

buffettgambler · Jul 12, 2009

Gordon Gekko said:
Any thoughts on the Twins? Is Buehrle at +120 a decent price. I'm interested that Baker has had 9 Starts at home and 4 quality. Line moving in Twins direction as well.

I put a small play on Bergensen. I'll keep fading the Blue Jays.

Last night I put a medium sized play on CC. I was spot on with your thinking. No way can that lineup keep performing without Vlad and Hunter, especially against top notch pitching.

In my opinion, the oddsmakers were pricing the White Sox game more efficiently than the market. Bakers H/A splits throughout his career has shown little disparity.

The market seems to be taking lines away from my intrinsic values today (which is usually the opposite of what happens). Bidding down the Brewers price was not warranted in my opinion, nor was failing to move up the Rays after the lineup card info.

GordonGekko · Jul 12, 2009

Looking at Florida and Atlanta: Colorado without Helton and Hammel has been hit well vs Atlanta's starters and out of 7 starts at home, 0 have been classified as quality.

Vallon · Jul 12, 2009

Gordon Gekko said:
Looking at Florida and Atlanta: Colorado without Helton and Hammel has been hit well vs Atlanta's starters and out of 7 starts at home, 0 have been classified as quality.

Thinking of jumping on Atl first 5.