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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

CINCINNATI -
1.09 over Milwaukee http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o:p></o:p>
Homer Bailey goes for the Reds and when you look at his numbers they really don’t look so good. However, a close look reveals a little different story. Bailey made one start in May and was subsequently sent back down to the farm. He was recalled on June 27 and he’s made three starts since his recall. His biggest problem was control, as he’s walked 15 batters in 22 innings and that has led to an ERA over 5. The good news is that he’s faced Cleveland twice, the Cardinals and the Phillies in Philadelphia and in those four starts has his BAA is just .195. Bailey held the Phillies to two runs on seven hits in six innings Wednesday before picking up the no-decision. He struck out six without walking a guy, and 63 of his 95 pitches went for strikes. He has gradually smoothed his control in his three starts since the recall, going from seven walks to two to zero and he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of those starts. His inflated ERA is due to his one shaky start in May so put no weight on it whatsoever. Meanwhile, Braden Looper’s ERA on the road is 6.06 to go along with a .309 BAA. Three of his last four starts have been of the quality variety but so what. He faced the Cubbies at Wrigley, the Mets and the Twinkies. Give him credit for a good game against the Twins but having a good game against the Mets and Cubs does not impress anyone. When he faced the Dodgers in his last game he was smoked and when he faced the Tigers prior to the Twins start, he was smoked there too. Looper is a mediocre and very hittable pitcher, throwing for a team with one of the worst pens in the business. Bailey is pumped up and raring to go. Play: Cincinnati –1.09 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

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