<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-2.18 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">23</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">30</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-6.14 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since March 2009)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">103</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">117</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">8</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+9.64 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Milwaukee +1.08 over CINCINNATI
Bronson Arroyo is in no way to be trusted as a favorite and neither are the listless Reds. Cincinnati scored six runs last night but three of those runs came in the eighth inning with the Reds down 9-3. Over its last seven games the Reds team batting average is .230 and that includes four games in Philly. With the offense sputtering, they’ll have to rely on Arroyo to keep them in the game and that’s unlikely to happen. Arroyo is 4-4 at Great American Ballpark but his ERA at home is 6.37. He’s also prone to giving up the long ball and the Brewers are a team that can bash with the best of them. In fact, the Brew Crew are third in the NL in home runs with 101 behind the Phillies and Rockies and this is the third time this season they’ll see Arroyo. In his other two starts against the Brewers, Arroyo lasted a combined 7.1 innings and he allowed 10 runs and seven walks with striking out just three. The Brewers hit .355 off him to go along with an ERA of 12.27. This is the first time the Reds will see Jeff Suppan this season. That’s a big advantage for the visitor and it’s also worth noting that Suppan has allowed just one bomb over his last eight starts. Anyway, when Arroyo and the Reds are favored, the dog will always have some appeal and this pup has plenty. Play: Milwaukee +1.08 (Risking 2 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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FLORIDA +1.12 over Philadelphia (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
Cole Hamels is just not the same pitcher he was a year ago. Here’s a guy that threw 262 innings last season and another 100 this year not including the spring. His arm has put on a ton of miles over the last 1½ years and the wear and tear is obvious. The Pirates smacked him around in his last start, as did the Braves, Blue Jays, Mets and Nationals. Hamels has a road ERA of 6.34 to go along with a road BAA of .352. The reports are that Hamels changeup is flat and that’s a pitch he’s relied heavily upon to be so effective. Without it, he’s getting banged around badly and the Marlins are a team that has thrived against southpaws with a 12-5 record at home and a 21-11 overall record against left-handed starters. From May 22 to July 5, Ricky Nolasco saw his ERA drop from 9.06 to 5.42. In six of his last seven starts he’s allowed two runs or less and he’s a case of a good pitcher getting off to a horrible start. Nolasco has found his groove again and there’s no denying he has some pretty wicked stuff. He’s major-league caliber and there’s not a single team in the bigs that wouldn’t love to have this guy. The Marlins pen is very shaky and this pick is definitely based on the starters, thus the first five innings play. Play: Florida +1.12 in the first five innings). <o></o>
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Boston +1.16 over TORONTO
Clay Buchholz went 7-2 for Pawtucket with a 2.36 ERA in 16 starts and would very likely be a top three starter on any other team in the majors. In the minors this season the opposition hit just .188 off him and one has to believe he’ll be completely amped up for this start, his first of the year. Buchholz has a ton of upside, not to mention talent and it’s also worth noting that he’s struck out 89 batters in 99 frames, while walking just 30. The Jays have struggled against lefties all season long and right now they’re going bad. The Blue Jays have three wins in its last 15 games, they’ve lost eight of its last 11 against the Red Sox and when Boston faced Ricky Romero earlier in the year they torched him to the tune of six hits and five runs in four innings of work. The Red Sox have won 12 of its last 16 road games and any tag on them here has to be considered some pretty sweet value. Play: Boston +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Milwaukee +1.08 over CINCINNATI
Bronson Arroyo is in no way to be trusted as a favorite and neither are the listless Reds. Cincinnati scored six runs last night but three of those runs came in the eighth inning with the Reds down 9-3. Over its last seven games the Reds team batting average is .230 and that includes four games in Philly. With the offense sputtering, they’ll have to rely on Arroyo to keep them in the game and that’s unlikely to happen. Arroyo is 4-4 at Great American Ballpark but his ERA at home is 6.37. He’s also prone to giving up the long ball and the Brewers are a team that can bash with the best of them. In fact, the Brew Crew are third in the NL in home runs with 101 behind the Phillies and Rockies and this is the third time this season they’ll see Arroyo. In his other two starts against the Brewers, Arroyo lasted a combined 7.1 innings and he allowed 10 runs and seven walks with striking out just three. The Brewers hit .355 off him to go along with an ERA of 12.27. This is the first time the Reds will see Jeff Suppan this season. That’s a big advantage for the visitor and it’s also worth noting that Suppan has allowed just one bomb over his last eight starts. Anyway, when Arroyo and the Reds are favored, the dog will always have some appeal and this pup has plenty. Play: Milwaukee +1.08 (Risking 2 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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></o>FLORIDA +1.12 over Philadelphia (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
Cole Hamels is just not the same pitcher he was a year ago. Here’s a guy that threw 262 innings last season and another 100 this year not including the spring. His arm has put on a ton of miles over the last 1½ years and the wear and tear is obvious. The Pirates smacked him around in his last start, as did the Braves, Blue Jays, Mets and Nationals. Hamels has a road ERA of 6.34 to go along with a road BAA of .352. The reports are that Hamels changeup is flat and that’s a pitch he’s relied heavily upon to be so effective. Without it, he’s getting banged around badly and the Marlins are a team that has thrived against southpaws with a 12-5 record at home and a 21-11 overall record against left-handed starters. From May 22 to July 5, Ricky Nolasco saw his ERA drop from 9.06 to 5.42. In six of his last seven starts he’s allowed two runs or less and he’s a case of a good pitcher getting off to a horrible start. Nolasco has found his groove again and there’s no denying he has some pretty wicked stuff. He’s major-league caliber and there’s not a single team in the bigs that wouldn’t love to have this guy. The Marlins pen is very shaky and this pick is definitely based on the starters, thus the first five innings play. Play: Florida +1.12 in the first five innings). <o
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></o>Boston +1.16 over TORONTO
Clay Buchholz went 7-2 for Pawtucket with a 2.36 ERA in 16 starts and would very likely be a top three starter on any other team in the majors. In the minors this season the opposition hit just .188 off him and one has to believe he’ll be completely amped up for this start, his first of the year. Buchholz has a ton of upside, not to mention talent and it’s also worth noting that he’s struck out 89 batters in 99 frames, while walking just 30. The Jays have struggled against lefties all season long and right now they’re going bad. The Blue Jays have three wins in its last 15 games, they’ve lost eight of its last 11 against the Red Sox and when Boston faced Ricky Romero earlier in the year they torched him to the tune of six hits and five runs in four innings of work. The Red Sox have won 12 of its last 16 road games and any tag on them here has to be considered some pretty sweet value. Play: Boston +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
