Reverse Line Movement

letsgohoosiers · Jul 18, 2009

One thing I have found to be consistent in all sports I bet is reverse line movement plays work - if you use them properly.

The concept of RLM is that the majority of the bettors are on one side, yet the line moves in towards the other team.

What I have found in every sport is that whenever the public is on the DOG, and the line moves towards the FAVORITE, the favorite hits at a high clip.

There were 3 games today that fit this criteria:

Detroit-NY Yankees

Tigers were +210. Public ate them up. Why? They're a division leader, getting 2-1. 52% of the bets were on Detroit (percentages are from 5Dimes book) and the line moved from -205 to -230 on the Yankees.

Philadelphia-Florida

Florida (at home) opened up at plus money. Outside of that, I honestly have no idea what attracted bettors to Florida. 56% were on Florida, yet the Phillies line grew from -122 to -125.

NY Mets-Atlanta

This one screamed sucker bet. The Mets are a big public team. When you dangle a huge number out there, there will be New Yorkers (a large contingent of the betting population) who think "We got a chance, I mean come on it's the Braves!" and bet. 63% took the Mets and watched them get clobbered. The Braves line grew from -190 to -200.

finite · Jul 18, 2009

So i assume you will list examples for tomorrow a reasonable time before the games begin. :103631605

sparticus · Jul 18, 2009

LGH, How did the comparision of the greek & bookmaker lines do today as you mentioned the otherday in here.Thanks.

letsgohoosiers · Jul 18, 2009

sparticus said:
LGH, How did the comparision of the greek & bookmaker lines do today as you mentioned the otherday in here.Thanks.

8-4 today, only up around 3 units because of favorites being played so often. I need to keep testing and see what exactly I need to be doing there.

Here is the screenshot of the plays, highlighted games are those where the sum of difference between the two books is 18 or higher. In English, that's subtracting Pinnacle's line from The Greek/Bookmaker's line, adding up the difference, and playing games where the difference is 18 or higher.

MackDonald · Jul 18, 2009

Great observation Mr. Hoosier; it looks like you are on to something. Good luck.

JimmyJet · Jul 18, 2009

Thanks for your perspective....believe the key to winning is understanding line movement and learning when to use it to your advantage.

JimmyJet · Jul 18, 2009

How indicative of results are early line movements? Is it wise to consider early moves as "smart money"? Examples seen early this morning are:

Bost -109 to -130

CWS -135 TO -146

Cubs -114 to -124

Milw +123 to +112

Texas -110 to -119

If am reading this movement as early smart money than would indicate bets on the above teams. Is that correct analysis?

JimmyJet · Jul 18, 2009

From another source am seeing that the following teams have a high percentage of bets placed, again early morning observation so should be indicating smart money if we agree that those bets are placed early.

NYM 82%
NYM/ATL Un 82%
PITT/SF Un 95%
COLO 85%
LAD 81%
CWS 95%
LAA 99%
TB/KC Ov 95%
TEX 80%

Would you be looking to bet on these wagers due to early numbers heavily on that particular side? Is there wager value in these indicators? Thanks for any input or validation of my research.

JimmyJet · Jul 18, 2009

My feeling is that the best wagers are those that can be isolated to receiving early or "smart money" and receivimg heavy action from the public on the other side of the early money wagered. Does that make sense or correlate with your research?

Club · Jul 18, 2009

I never knew how to determine what side the public is on and at what percentage from a reliable source. It seems like people always post contradicting information and incorrect information on this point. Any reliable sources for public betting and the percentages?

I'mBombed · Jul 18, 2009

www.scoresandodds.com betting trends per game

docslep · Jul 18, 2009

in general, the public likes the favorite if you believe the data that is posted on wagerline et al. this should be easy to track. but aren't you looking for the line to move away from the favorite? its supposed to move towards the fav if the pubic's on the dog. right?

docslep · Jul 18, 2009

this doesn't work on dogs, if the public likes the fav, yet the line move towards them?:think2:

Betallsports · Jul 18, 2009

I am a Very Big Believer of RLM Plays. But for the past few weeks, it hasn't worked that well.

Where you listed 3 games for last night, over the past season...there have been night's where the RLM plays could Reach 6-8 Games.

A Big Key that I have seen this Season, is if a Big Fav Opens like say
-230 ( example ) and the Public is like 60-80% on them, and it starts moving the other way Under -200
7 out of 9 times, the Dog has won that Game.

JimmyJet · Jul 18, 2009

Are Pittsburgh and NYY examples of RLM for today, Saturday July 18th?

Consensus is 67% on SFO and Pitt line is moving higher as favorite.

Consensus is 55% on Detroit and line is moving up on fav Yankees not as much as on Pitt though.

qvqd2009 · Jul 18, 2009

can someone tell me at which website you can compare odds at different sportsbooks like the screenshot posted above?, i.e.

Jpatterson91 · Jul 18, 2009

qvqd2009 said:
can someone tell me at which website you can compare odds at different sportsbooks like the screenshot posted above?, i.e.

SBROdds .com

qvqd2009 · Jul 18, 2009

thank you

docslep · Jul 18, 2009

JimmyJet said:
Are Pittsburgh and NYY examples of RLM for today, Saturday July 18th?

Consensus is 67% on SFO and Pitt line is moving higher as favorite.

Consensus is 55% on Detroit and line is moving up on fav Yankees not as much as on Pitt though.

i think this is only for favs. sfo is a dog. also, i have the public on nyy, not detroit. depends on the source you use. :103631605

JimmyJet · Jul 18, 2009

Pitt is the favorite that would indicate RLM

but in both cases the consensus has shifted and is now in favor of NYY and Pitt so not RLM....this seems to change quickly.