GG,
I am going to have to disagree with you on Grienke. I am finding value on the Rays in this one. I got in at +116, and the market is slowly disagreeing with my assessment up to this point. However, I stand by my notion that the market is continuing to overvalue Grienke and undervalue Kazmir. Grienke is getting progressively worse each month, but the market is continuing to value him as if it were April. I think that the Royals may be undervalued in the next few series if the market does not significantly upgrade their lineup worth with Betancourt and Gordon. Today is not the case though. Medium value on the Rays. If the market wants to shoot up the price some more, this may be a large play.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
> </o>
I saw nothing wrong with the line oddsmakers put forth in the Astros/Dodgers game. But once again, the market wants to bid up the Dodgers price. Under the current market price, the Astros will warrant a small bet for me even though I have not placed it yet.
<o> </o>
I am once again finding some value on the Phillies. Blanton has looked sharp of late, and I think the market is demanding a bit too much from Johnson. Medium play here.
<o> </o>
The Blue Jays have been in a prolonged overvalued rut. I will continue to bet against him until the market corrects itself. Large play on the Red Sox. The addition to Lowrie to the lineup adds a few cents to their worth in this one. Large play on the Red Sox.
<o> </o>
I think we discussed Bergenson last week and him probably being overvalued going forward. We both liked him in that particular start against the Jays though. His overvaluation has now started. I like Buerhle in a bounce back start. Large play.
<o> </o>
The market and oddsmakers have both been off with their interpretation of the right price in the Cubs/Nats game for a third straight game. Wells has overvalued tendencies, so not as much value on the Cubs than the last two games. But still enough value to warrant a large play.
<o> </o>
The Mets/Braves game seems set perfectly. The market agrees.
<o> </o>
Medium value on the Reds again today. This does not look like a pitching issue, rather a disconnect in either the bullpen or lineup net worths.
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
I was expecting the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace>Rockies</st1lace> to be priced higher. Not sure why they are not, but they are set efficiently. No play.
<o> </o>
Second game in a row in the Pirates series where the price seems spot on.
<o> </o>
Wainwright might be the most consistently undervalued pitcher in baseball. Even against an out of favor team like the DBacks he is coming with value. Medium to large here.
<o> </o>
Line in the Indians games seems solid.
<o> </o>
Once again, the Yankees are undervalued against the Tigers. This time the market is not bidding up the price to efficiency. Medium play.
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
The Rangers game seems price right, but if the market wants to bid the Rangers a little lower, they may warrant a small play.
<o> </o>
The market was very active in the first two Angels/A’s games. This time they are staying pat. I agree with the market. This line looks efficient.
I am going to have to disagree with you on Grienke. I am finding value on the Rays in this one. I got in at +116, and the market is slowly disagreeing with my assessment up to this point. However, I stand by my notion that the market is continuing to overvalue Grienke and undervalue Kazmir. Grienke is getting progressively worse each month, but the market is continuing to value him as if it were April. I think that the Royals may be undervalued in the next few series if the market does not significantly upgrade their lineup worth with Betancourt and Gordon. Today is not the case though. Medium value on the Rays. If the market wants to shoot up the price some more, this may be a large play.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>I saw nothing wrong with the line oddsmakers put forth in the Astros/Dodgers game. But once again, the market wants to bid up the Dodgers price. Under the current market price, the Astros will warrant a small bet for me even though I have not placed it yet.
<o
> </o>I am once again finding some value on the Phillies. Blanton has looked sharp of late, and I think the market is demanding a bit too much from Johnson. Medium play here.
<o
> </o>The Blue Jays have been in a prolonged overvalued rut. I will continue to bet against him until the market corrects itself. Large play on the Red Sox. The addition to Lowrie to the lineup adds a few cents to their worth in this one. Large play on the Red Sox.
<o
> </o>I think we discussed Bergenson last week and him probably being overvalued going forward. We both liked him in that particular start against the Jays though. His overvaluation has now started. I like Buerhle in a bounce back start. Large play.
<o
> </o>The market and oddsmakers have both been off with their interpretation of the right price in the Cubs/Nats game for a third straight game. Wells has overvalued tendencies, so not as much value on the Cubs than the last two games. But still enough value to warrant a large play.
<o
> </o>The Mets/Braves game seems set perfectly. The market agrees.
<o
> </o>Medium value on the Reds again today. This does not look like a pitching issue, rather a disconnect in either the bullpen or lineup net worths.
<o
> </o><o
> </o>I was expecting the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1lace>Rockies</st1lace> to be priced higher. Not sure why they are not, but they are set efficiently. No play.<o
> </o>Second game in a row in the Pirates series where the price seems spot on.
<o
> </o>Wainwright might be the most consistently undervalued pitcher in baseball. Even against an out of favor team like the DBacks he is coming with value. Medium to large here.
<o
> </o>Line in the Indians games seems solid.
<o
> </o>Once again, the Yankees are undervalued against the Tigers. This time the market is not bidding up the price to efficiency. Medium play.
<o
> </o><o
> </o>The Rangers game seems price right, but if the market wants to bid the Rangers a little lower, they may warrant a small play.
<o
> </o>The market was very active in the first two Angels/A’s games. This time they are staying pat. I agree with the market. This line looks efficient.
GG,
I am going to have to disagree with you on Grienke. I am finding value on the Rays in this one. I got in at +116, and the market is slowly disagreeing with my assessment up to this point. However, I stand by my notion that the market is continuing to overvalue Grienke and undervalue Kazmir. Grienke is getting progressively worse each month, but the market is continuing to value him as if it were April. I think that the Royals may be undervalued in the next few series if the market does not significantly upgrade their lineup worth with Betancourt and Gordon. Today is not the case though. Medium value on the Rays. If the market wants to shoot up the price some more, this may be a large play.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
I saw nothing wrong with the line oddsmakers put forth in the Astros/Dodgers game. But once again, the market wants to bid up the Dodgers price. Under the current market price, the Astros will warrant a small bet for me even though I have not placed it yet.
<o
I am once again finding some value on the Phillies. Blanton has looked sharp of late, and I think the market is demanding a bit too much from Johnson. Medium play here.
<o
The Blue Jays have been in a prolonged overvalued rut. I will continue to bet against him until the market corrects itself. Large play on the Red Sox. The addition to Lowrie to the lineup adds a few cents to their worth in this one. Large play on the Red Sox.
<o
I think we discussed Bergenson last week and him probably being overvalued going forward. We both liked him in that particular start against the Jays though. His overvaluation has now started. I like Buerhle in a bounce back start. Large play.
<o
The market and oddsmakers have both been off with their interpretation of the right price in the Cubs/Nats game for a third straight game. Wells has overvalued tendencies, so not as much value on the Cubs than the last two games. But still enough value to warrant a large play.
<o
The Mets/Braves game seems set perfectly. The market agrees.
<o
Medium value on the Reds again today. This does not look like a pitching issue, rather a disconnect in either the bullpen or lineup net worths.
<o
<o
I was expecting the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
<o
Second game in a row in the Pirates series where the price seems spot on.
<o
Wainwright might be the most consistently undervalued pitcher in baseball. Even against an out of favor team like the DBacks he is coming with value. Medium to large here.
<o
Line in the Indians games seems solid.
<o
Once again, the Yankees are undervalued against the Tigers. This time the market is not bidding up the price to efficiency. Medium play.
<o
<o
The Rangers game seems price right, but if the market wants to bid the Rangers a little lower, they may warrant a small play.
<o
The market was very active in the first two Angels/A’s games. This time they are staying pat. I agree with the market. This line looks efficient.
All excellent points as usual.
I played Boston and Tampa Bay large (great analysis) and as well as Chicago White Sox. I believe will see the White Sox with a nice second half run and the oddsmakers will start setting the price much higher but at 139 I like it.
Took NY and Reds as medium plays with Braun questionable.
Maybe looking at Washburn as well...He's pitched very consistenly..
Ohka hasn't!..
GEKKO
