Tips for mlb handicapping right after the all-star break

ACE-ACE · Jul 18, 2009

From my friend Nick

/16/2009

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TIPS FOR MLB HANDICAPPING RIGHT AFTER THE ALL-STAR BREAK[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I think the days right after the All-Star Break are most difficult for oddsmakers and handicappers alike.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Everyone gets into a nice day-to-day rhythm during the regular season. I, in particular, like to focus on recent form for teams and pitchers when making my numbers and my client selections. What do you do when...?[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The teams haven't played for three or four days.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Many starting pitchers are off-rotation.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The deeper you get into the weekend, the MORE off-rotation the starters are![/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There is no recent form after a layoff like that. You have to start from scratch in terms of developing your rhythm again. And, in many ways, you have to FORGET everything you were thinking about the prior weekend.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Hot teams just hit a wall that could kill their momentum. How do you maintain any heat sitting on a couch with your family?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Cold teams just got some time away from each other that was probably badly needed. If their was a lack of chemistry in the clubhouse, the time away probably did everyone some good. Teams recently in a funk could easily start out playing very well right after the break. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Teams who were wearing down from fatigue got just the time off they needed to freshen up. Some squads have had to play in hot weather for quite some time now. Other teams have had so many injuries that key players have had to go daily for several weeks. Teams who were slumping from fatigue may be about to surge again. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Hot pitchers could get out of synch. If they made the All-Star team, they may have just made a short appearance completely out of character with what they're used to. If they didn't make the All-Star team, they may go six or seven days between throwing to live hitters. [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Again, you have to FORGET everything you knew the last weekend![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here are my guidelines for post All-Star Break handicapping.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Lower your betting units until you get your feel back. I'd suggest cutting everything in half. If you were a $100 per unit player before the break, cut it back to $50 per unit at first. If things are going well after the first weekend of action, go back to your normal units. If you're 50/50 or worse, stay conservative until you're on the right side of the ledger. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Be more skeptical about plays you "love." Big plays are obviously less big in a time of turmoil like this. Confident handicappers are prone to have too much confidence at the start of a betting challenge. Work your way back into the flow with intelligent money management. It's funny, squares have an amazing tendency to bet heavily right after a layoff because they have so much pent up enthusiasm. Don't act like a square! Have respect for the challenge at hand. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Watch the Thursday and Friday games very closely to get a sense of which non-contenders have a new energy about them. My personal opinion is that a few of the .500 caliber teams who have been disappointments thus far are about to get hot...and a few of the .500 caliber teams who have been playing over their heads are about to cool off. Try to beat the rush on those trends while the market is still pricing the big group at .500 caliber. NOW is when teams announce that they're about to make a move. Be sure you're listening. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Expect standard pitching efforts from starters who are on their normal rotations (say, guys who pitched last Sunday then come up again on Friday night). Don't ask any pitchers to have standard outings if they're off rotation. This will eliminate a lot of games for you. That's a good thing! You'll be focused on the right guys in the right spots. Try to bet on-rotation pitchers vs. off-rotation pitchers. Try to bet Overs if two off-rotation guys are pitching in a good hitting park. Try to bet Unders if two on-rotation guys are pitching in a good pitcher's park. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Bet against guys who actually threw pitches in the All-Star game. They're likely to be a little flat after the excitement of the prior Tuesday Night. Plus, managers will have a quicker hook than normal because they're being careful with an expensive arm. Nothing's worse than betting on a star pitcher, then having him pulled in the sixth inning because the manager is being careful. You're hard earned money is now in the hands of a mediocre long reliever! Better to go the other way, because you'll get a nice return if that mediocre long reliever has a bad outing...or if the All-Star hurler does have a flat performance. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Remember that both pro baseball and pro basketball are known for seeing the best teams "get serious" right after the All-Star Break. Top teams want to send a message to everyone else. Top managers want to set a tone for the second half of the season. If you're tempted to bet underdogs against the powerhouses because the lines seem too high, DON'T DO IT! Favorites have better win percentages in the second half of the season. It's not smart to go against a superpower unless you have VERY good reasons to do so. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Pro baseball copies pro basketball in terms of post All-Star Break stuff, but copies pro football in terms of the importance of rivalries. Many big divisional series now take on added meaning because of the pennant races. Look for letdown spots right after a big series between divisional contenders. You can basically handicap those like football games. Ohio State and Penn State are flat after playing each other. So are Texas and Oklahoma, Florida and Tennessee. Expect the same in the divisional races in the next month. [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The challenges of those first few days after the break give way to great opportunities once you've found your rhythm again. You'll develop a new sense of "recent form" with teams and pitchers in short order...and you can use some of those football type angles to pick even more winners. [/FONT]