Shoulda Won RL Chase System

BrashL · Jul 18, 2009

A new very unscientific system I want to try. Sort of piggybacking on what MJ is doing in his thread. Here's the theory:

Let the first game of a series play out as it will. Look for games where the "better" team loses. Take that team in game 2, and if it loses, go for two units in the finale.

Of course the "better" part is the unscientific part. I'm not one to parse stats so I'm going primarily by record now that we're at the halfway point although 10 game record probably makes more sense. The operative strategy here is betting against the likelihood of a sweep, especially with a "good" team.

So here's todays picks:
LAA -1.5
SF ML
LAD -1.5

This is either my best or worst idea ever.

uppy:

krh7 · Jul 18, 2009

sounds like an idea that would be easy to track for the first half of the season. i'd want to see some previous results before i put any money down.

BrashL · Jul 18, 2009

Understandable, but I think you need the long term results of half a season to even implement ith

MMfan · Jul 18, 2009

Sounds interesting. Lots of variables so I don't think looking at the 1H of the season matters. For example, The Tigers played better the 1st half of the last 19 of 21 season then the 2nd half. I'm sure there are other teams out there with situations like that.
I like Numbers Freak using the last 30 days for his system. I think that is a better perspective.

BrashL · Jul 19, 2009

2 and 1 for the evening. We'll try to pick up the last series tomorrow.

letsgohoosiers · Jul 19, 2009

Game 2:

 <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#dddddd"><th>series game=2 and P

oints<Po

oints and P:line<0 and line<0</th></tr> <tr><td> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr> <td>SU:</td> <td>885-620 (0.6 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: -149 / +136</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: -$1,120 / -$6,705</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: -0.5% / -4.4%</td> </tr><tr> <td>O/U:</td> <td>671-755-77 (0.3 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average total[/SIZE]: 9.1 </td> <td>[SIZE=-1]over[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]under[/SIZE]: -$15,530 / +$1,605</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: -9.4% / +1.0%</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>Game 3:

 <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#dddddd"><th>series game=3 and P

oints<Po

oints and PP

oints<PPo

oints and P:line<0 and PP:line<0 and line<0</th></tr> <tr><td> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr> <td>SU:</td> <td>267-184 (0.9 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: -150 / +137</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: +$470 / -$2,675</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: +0.7% / -5.9%</td> </tr><tr> <td>O/U:</td> <td>200-223-27 (0.1 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average total[/SIZE]: 9.1 </td> <td>[SIZE=-1]over[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]under[/SIZE]: -$4,320 / +$390</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: -8.7% / +0.8%</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>Playing on the moneyline, you would have a record of 1152-184 (I should note that SportsDatabase's numbers are unreliable). That's laying $149 to win $100 on the first game, and then $374 to win $249 on the second game. Lose and you're out $523, so you're laying -523 in this scenario. Doing the math, that's $115,200 - $96232 = $18968.

However, again, I need to stress that the data is unnreliable and when I previously backtracked there were system losses that weren't counted. You are best off in a chasing system simply taking the home team.

Mistermj · Jul 19, 2009

BrashL said:
A new very unscientific system I want to try. Sort of piggybacking on what MJ is doing in his thread. Here's the theory:

Let the first game of a series play out as it will. Look for games where the "better" team loses. Take that team in game 2, and if it loses, go for two units in the finale.

Of course the "better" part is the unscientific part. I'm not one to parse stats so I'm going primarily by record now that we're at the halfway point although 10 game record probably makes more sense. The operative strategy here is betting against the likelihood of a sweep, especially with a "good" team.

So here's todays picks:
LAA -1.5
SF ML
LAD -1.5

This is either my best or worst idea ever.uppy:

I might be able to save you a lot of time. There is already a very successful Run Line system tested for two seasons based on this type of idea.

The creator of the system doesn't have the time to post it anymore.

First Game Favorite Loser Run Line Chase

One must first find a team that is a favorite for all three games in a series (or four for that matter) that loses the FIRST game. Then you chase them to win one game in the series.

A guy named htdykid over at the Statfox forum has racked up quite a few units the last two years doing something like this.

I have more information on it if you are interested.

letsgohoosiers · Jul 19, 2009

Here is what MisterMJ is talking about:

<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="175" bgcolor="#ffffff" nowrap="nowrap">htdykid
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 2523

</td> <td valign="top" width="100%" bgcolor="#ffffff"> I'm around but some of us work for a living-luckily this year my company seems to have stopped blocking my wagering sites so its game on.

Not sure if I will post every game but I will drop in as much as possible to nurture the Den's bankrolls as I have for the past 3 years(+246 units posted plays since 07).

And there are no issues FF-I like that you have made my idea your own.
Play all RLs of faves who are -120 for a series if they lose game 1
I added filters to further strengthen the return:
Game 2 o/u is 8 or less
UD starter ERA is over 5.3

If you play the ML in the chase games you will add another 36 units of gain.

If you play the adjusted line of -2.5 you will add another 21 units of gain.

No plays until game 10.
Hope this helps-good luck!
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04-06-09 10:31 PM</td> <td valign="middle" width="100%" bgcolor="#ffffff" height="16"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr valign="bottom"> <td>

</td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">Edit post Report post </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody></table>

BrashL · Jul 19, 2009

Wow this is great stuff, thanks.

BrashL · Jul 19, 2009

Well, if I was smart and stuck to MJ's rule (ML on -115) it would be 3-0. I got greedy with the RL and went 2-1. At any rate, sort of promising, I'll continue to try it

BrashL · Jul 21, 2009

OK, so I'm thinking Minny is the only play for this set of games. After yesterday that seem like madness and they are a dog tonight, but the system must go on

BrashL · Jul 22, 2009

And another winner at about +120. 4-0 if you did it right, I'll keep going next series

BrashL · Jul 25, 2009

OK, finally two games meet our criteria. Tonight it's

Seattle RL +110
LAD RL +115

BrashL · Jul 25, 2009

Seattle RL +110

ucking:

PeterGriffin · Jul 25, 2009

I'm guessing this system will do well. The longer I bet bases, the more I think systems like these are the way to go. Breaking down stats and crunching numbers on individual games is tough because there are so many random, uncappable things that happen in baseball. A lot of people want to ride "hot streaks," but I've found it's a lot more profitable to bet good teams who are coming off losses, than it is to bet teams who have been winning. At least that's been my experience.

I have a "sweep avoidance" system (if you could call it a system) that's about as simple as it gets. Bet a + .500 team whenever they lose the first two games of the series (or 3 games if it's a 4-game series). The plays are even stronger if the team is at home. I don't have exact percentages, but they win more often than they lose. If I had more time I could probably refine it to be even better, but for now it's fine the way it is.

Like I said, you should do well this one. GL...

BrashL · Jul 26, 2009

Ba, bad night. Since LAD won, I'm not gonna chase it even though it was on the Rl

Instead it's just ML Seattle

BrashL · Jul 28, 2009

Barf, Seattle just lies there, and LAD would have just killed me more had I not laid off.

Call it 4-2 series wise so far, lots of fun tonight though and this set may determine if I quit on this:

Colorado RL +120
LAD ML +106
Brewers RL -105 (Hate this pick...)
LA Angerls RL -120

Just to reiterate some rules I decided on so far:
If you're on the RL and the team wins but doesn't cover, take the loss and lay off next game.
Take ML up to -115

ionicking · Jul 28, 2009

Good luck.. Following you on these!

BrashL · Jul 31, 2009

For those still following. Series went 3-1 (4-0 if you kept chasing LAA after the one run win) 2 games went to Game 4 however so you had to white knuckle it.

Now 7-3, only game tonight is
Yanks RL +120

yonko · Aug 2, 2009

drop atlanta and play the yanks?

Shoulda Won RL Chase System

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