7-21

GordonGekko · Jul 21, 2009

After the day was done yesterday took a net loss on all games.

Today's Thoughts:

I've bought the Cubs at plus 115 as a medium play with Harden on the mound. It's obvious the Phillies are rolling but Harden's road record and last start makes me believe their is an upside. Last night Lilly (predominantly fly ball pitcher) just didn't have it and when you make mistakes at Citizens Bank Park you will get hammered there. I'm not sure I factored in the knee injury as much as it needed to be. Today Blanton takes the mound and is on a roll. However, 4-5 hitters hit him well.

Sox opened as big favorites with Beckett and still climbing. Minus 160 at the moment. No Closer for Texas. Papelbon???

Do we back Chen at home? LA has been making it through the year with these fill in players and costing me valuable dollars. I'm not sure what I see with this.

Oakland again? Amazing comeback and lefty on the mound vs Swarzack who's only gone past 6 innings the 1 last 4 starts.

Where else?

GEKKO

GordonGekko · Jul 21, 2009

Tampa Bay @ Chicago White Sox:

Niemann has pitched more into games however average against Chicago isn't too good. He's had two strong outings in a row and line is dropping as we speak. Richard on the other hand has not pitched well at any point this year or last year. The market seems to be bullish on him. As a lefty he could negate some of the lineup in Crawford and Pena.

Are the relievers Choate and Balfour available in this game? Both have worked a lot including Choate 4 games in a row and Balfour 3 games in a row. Jenks 30 pitches? Is he available.

Might make a small play on Chicago here.

buffettgambler · Jul 21, 2009

Lines look really tight to me today. For the most part, what little value there was, the market seemed to have already corrected it. One game in which the market seems to be opening up some value with the line move is the Marlins. I also think the Royals game 2 price is off, as O'Sullivan seems to be priced too high no matter what Royal pitcher he is up against.

Good analysis on your part. I bet Harden as a medium play on the overnight, but the market has now picked off the value there.

No real opinion on the current price on the White Sox. If there was value on them on the overnight, the line move ate away at it.

GordonGekko · Jul 21, 2009

buffettgambler said:
Lines look really tight to me today. For the most part, what little value there was, the market seemed to have already corrected it. One game in which the market seems to be opening up some value with the line move is the Marlins. I also think the Royals game 2 price is off, as O'Sullivan seems to be priced too high no matter what Royal pitcher he is up against.

Good analysis on your part. I bet Harden as a medium play on the overnight, but the market has now picked off the value there.

No real opinion on the current price on the White Sox. If there was value on them on the overnight, the line move ate away at it.

I played the Royals (Gm2) for a small wager as well as the Marlins -109.
I played the Cubs as a medium wager.

GordonGekko · Jul 21, 2009

Buffett,

Let me know if anything tweaks your interest.

I played

Medium wager: Cubs
Small: Houston, Detroit, Boston, Arizona

buffettgambler · Jul 21, 2009

Gordon Gekko said:
Buffett,

Let me know if anything tweaks your interest.

I played

Medium wager: Cubs
Small: Houston, Detroit, Boston, Arizona

GG,
Out of your plays, I liked the Cubs, Red Sox, and DBacks as small/med plays on the overnight. At the current prices I am indifferent to this games.

I think the Cards are coming with slight value. The market seemed to be sending the line in the right direction earlier today, but it is forming a V.

Detroits line seems right on.

Not much value on today's card. Currently, in my opinion, the most undervalued team is the Marlins.

What prices did you get on this games, as they have moved a lot off the open?

buffettgambler · Jul 21, 2009

The market is not discounting the lineup information that increased the Mets value. I think they warrant a medium play at their current +136 ask.

Locking in a 11% arb profit on the Cubs. I downgraded them due to lineup info, and the line drop on the overnight demands a full out hedge.

GordonGekko · Jul 21, 2009

buffettgambler said:
The market is not discounting the lineup information that increased the Mets value. I think they warrant a medium play at their current +136 ask.

Locking in a 11% arb profit on the Cubs. I downgraded them due to lineup info, and the line drop on the overnight demands a full out hedge.

Took a Medium play out on the Mets..

Hedged most of my Cubs wager...

GordonGekko · Jul 21, 2009

buffettgambler said:
GG,
Out of your plays, I liked the Cubs, Red Sox, and DBacks as small/med plays on the overnight. At the current prices I am indifferent to this games.

I think the Cards are coming with slight value. The market seemed to be sending the line in the right direction earlier today, but it is forming a V.

Detroits line seems right on.

Not much value on today's card. Currently, in my opinion, the most undervalued team is the Marlins.

What prices did you get on this games, as they have moved a lot off the open?

I have the Sox -158, DBacks +135, Cubs +112, I see the value on the Cards as they are a team that warrants a play at that price. Wandy is at a premium price but has pitched well of late and with Houston playing well, either way IMO..

GordonGekko · Jul 21, 2009

Detroit, I overpaid at 162 but I'm going to play against Seattle away from home who has overperformed this year (IMO). Detroit has had success vs lefties and Porcello isn't worth that tag but 135 would be acceptable.

A little too much risk on this one. But I am a gambler..

You mentioned you had a 11% Arb profit on the Cubs what price did you get them for?