Hedging

Degenerate7 · Jul 21, 2009

Anybody ever try taking a 7pm game parlayed with a late 10pm night game and hedging the opposite team if the early game hits?

its auto money if game 1 wins

SayHeyKid · Jul 21, 2009

If you're going to do that it's better to just do a straight bet on game 1.

ParkerPerry · Jul 21, 2009

they where talking about this last night. I am surprise that sportsbooks allow this. lol, good startagey.

Degenerate7 · Jul 21, 2009

i dont think its better taking a sb if you dont want to risk alot

if you risk the total amount of money you would win from the parlay and put it on the dog its basically double up or break even-

if game 1 of a 2team parlay hits thats 100/175
it basically means you have the late game fav at +175,

even if you put all 175 on the dog, your either going to break even or make alot off the upset

parlayallday · Jul 21, 2009

Ive never thought of that its a great idea

Degenerate7 · Jul 21, 2009

parlayallday said:
Ive never thought of that its a great idea

:think::money8:

angels are tempting me since a 5pm game is even early enough to take beckett at 8!!

Hip2Bsq · Jul 21, 2009

I do this a lot of times. I got the idea from john Patricks forum. He explains how to focus on just making your daily wage and if you lose you minimize risk and do not lose much at all.

Its a good position to be in if you win the first game you are guaranteed to not lose and you still have a chance for a nice payday.

Years ago I learned for NFL to do a two team teaser on a 10:00 game and a 1:00 game and either hedge for a middle or let it ride after winning the 1st game.

Degenerate7 · Jul 21, 2009

never thought of teasing football that way, ill def try that this year, thank you!

Doug · Jul 21, 2009

Say Hey Kid said:
If you're going to do that it's better to just do a straight bet on game 1.

agree !

Parlay vig is too high. Straight bet at MB or a -105 shop, instead.

Born2Gamble_ · Jul 21, 2009

assuming -105 lines...

bet 100 to win 281 = parlay
Team A vs Team B = you chose Team A to win
Team C vs Team D = you chose Team C to win

Team A wins, and your parlay is is pending Team C vs Team D

Bet $281 to win $267 on Team D

-----------

Team C wins = you break even
Team D wins = you make $167

OR FOR GTD MONEY ON 2ND GAME..

bet $195 to win $186 on Team D

Team C wins = +86
Team D wins = +86

You can basically break it down that you can gtd $86 no matter who wins the 2nd game. ( this is also assuming the lines wont move)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, my reasoning why this is not good long run?

Clearly shows why just betting the first game straight is more +ev, unless I am missing something?

The issue is winning the 1st game.

Lets say you win the first game 55% of the time

45x $100 = $4,500 loss

55x $86 = $4,730 win

net win = $230

Take that same example and just bet it straight with -105 to win $100

45 x $105 = - $4,725 loss

55 x $100 = + $5,500 gain

net win = +$775

MadTiger · Jul 21, 2009

So this is one of those "if you find yourself in this situation, then you can do this to guarantee a profit, but don't be in a rush to create these situations."

Born2Gamble_ · Jul 21, 2009

And even if you say, well I think i can win the 2nd game 55% of the time, so i will make it to break even or win the 167,

then it would be

45 x $100 (first game) = $4,500 loss
55x $167 x 55% = +$5,051 gain

net win = + $551

Born2Gamble_ · Jul 21, 2009

MadTiger said:
So this is one of those "if you find yourself in this situation, then you can do this to guarantee a profit, but don't be in a rush to create these situations."

Exactly ! But if someone put themselves in this situation on a 2 team parlay, then they should at the very least do the win money or break even on it, since it looks to be way more +ev. Thats if they still obv think that they have an edge on that particular game.

Knockout · Jul 21, 2009

You could also take the rl the opposite way on the second game and try to double dip. It's a hedge and a middle opportunity if the team in the original parlay only wins by 1 run.

Degenerate7 · Jul 21, 2009

hedge redsox game, not hedge redsox game? :think2:

ScaredHitless · Jul 21, 2009

what does hedging mean?

BoutMyMoney · Jul 21, 2009

hno:

ScaredHitless said:
what does hedging mean?

ScaredHitless · Jul 21, 2009

BoutMyMoney said:
hno:

gotta learn somehow

Degenerate7 · Jul 21, 2009

2-0 after 1 at least my hedge wont look stupid even if the sox win

MadTiger · Jul 22, 2009

Knockout said:
You could also take the rl the opposite way on the second game and try to double dip. It's a hedge and a middle opportunity if the team in the original parlay only wins by 1 run.

Which brings us full circle, because that happens quite often, statistically.