Oakland @ Ny -190:
Joba is no CC and Anderson has had good games this year, but with the bats as hot as they are? Do we have some value with Oakland?
Texas @ KC -148:
Another good matchup today and Greinke goes against Feldman. At plus 135 Texas has some value. Feldman is a 6 inning pitcher and most likely will continue vs a weak KC Lineup.
Minnesota @ LaAngels:
Do I dare bet against the Angels tonight? I've lost more money against them than for them. Liriano has some upside and the possibility of Fuentes not being available, maybe a play at +140.
Joba is no CC and Anderson has had good games this year, but with the bats as hot as they are? Do we have some value with Oakland?
Texas @ KC -148:
Another good matchup today and Greinke goes against Feldman. At plus 135 Texas has some value. Feldman is a 6 inning pitcher and most likely will continue vs a weak KC Lineup.
Minnesota @ LaAngels:
Do I dare bet against the Angels tonight? I've lost more money against them than for them. Liriano has some upside and the possibility of Fuentes not being available, maybe a play at +140.
Baltimore @ Boston:
Does the Red Sox streak reach 6? Penny has been hit hard of late and Bergensen has been decent. At plus 155 or better can the Orioles beat the Sox in Boston. Weather is windy and overcast. Tough road trip for Sox with Drew 0 for 21 and many others doing nothing with the bats, but the cure may be a home meal and a home game.
Does the Red Sox streak reach 6? Penny has been hit hard of late and Bergensen has been decent. At plus 155 or better can the Orioles beat the Sox in Boston. Weather is windy and overcast. Tough road trip for Sox with Drew 0 for 21 and many others doing nothing with the bats, but the cure may be a home meal and a home game.
It seems that White sox is a large consinence on this forum, and the under. I took the Under in the Reds Game as well. I well also be playing Texas, and the Blue Jays. I am playing the Blue Jays because Halladay is on the mound and the Jays rested their bats yesterday. I may also put a wager on LAA, because MJ system calls for it and it has been spot on for so long.
Last night, the market provided small value on the White Sox on both games. The market sent game 1 in the wrong direction, adding to what little value the White Sox were already carrying. Game 2, which had a little more value off the open, has been picked off by the market.
Small to medium value on the Cubs. Wells is starting to regress. Teams are accumulating better information on him, which is not good for a pitcher that lacks overpowering stuff. This is just the second time in which he will have to face a team that has already seem him this season.
Hard to quantify a line in the Nats/Padres games. Both pitchers are relatively unknown, while both teams are underachieving and pose valuation error in their own right. But oddsmakers seemed to have gotten this game right, and the market agrees.
Phillies line also seems solid, and the market also agrees.
There is nothing inherently cheap about the A's in this one. The market and oddsmakers alike are bearsihs on Chamberlin and are starting to take note of Andersons uptick. This offsets the recent overvalued tendency oddsmakers have placed on the Yankees lineup. No play at current market price.
Only small value on the Rays. Was actually expecting about 10 cents more. The market is starting to really like the Rays and are somewhat getting off the Holliday bandwagon (or the Jays). I will add to my small position on the Rays if the market wants to send the Jays price higher.
My second largest bet on the overnight was the Red Sox. Oddsmakers have not given Penny any respect (rightfully so?) and may have jumped the gun on the recent downturn in their offensive production and Bergensen season performance to date. The market spotted it, and have bid up the Red Sox price nearly 10 percent. Still some value on this team, but nearly as much compared to the open.
My largest bet on the overnight was the Mets. This is one of the few times I have bet on Santana this year. The oddsmakers, not suprisingly, did not fully discount the injury to Berkman and his value over replacement. The downgrade in their bullpen coupled with this injury could make a good go against team in the Astros in the short term.
No value in the Braves/ Brewers game yet. But the market is starting to nibble at the Braves price. If they want to shoot it up some more, I will enter a small position on the Brewers.
This may be the first time in 2 months in which I am not finding any value in betting against Grienke. The price seems spot on here.
The market just opened an opportunity to play the Giants in this one. Cain is flying under the radar in San Francisco partially due to Lincecum. The market does not give him the respect he deserves. Hamels has not handled the high altitude well.
Third largest bet on the overnight was the DBacks. Oddsmakers appeared to surface cap this one when deriving a line. The market picked it off, and shot up the line nearly 15 percent. Not the value they once had, but the Dbacks are still trading below their intrinsic worth.
Last nights game was the epitome of how the Angels are winning with smoke and mirrors. Handicappers have to look at them as an ongoing concern and not what they have done in the past. As an ongoing concern, this team is overrated, and overrated leads to overvalued. Twins are a nicely valued road underdog.
Small value on Johnson and the Marlins. Not sure which facet of the game has the disparity to warrant this line being so high.
Line seems perfect in Seattle now that the market took off any excess crumbs off the table on the Indians.
Opinions are subject to change with new information.
Small to medium value on the Cubs. Wells is starting to regress. Teams are accumulating better information on him, which is not good for a pitcher that lacks overpowering stuff. This is just the second time in which he will have to face a team that has already seem him this season.
Hard to quantify a line in the Nats/Padres games. Both pitchers are relatively unknown, while both teams are underachieving and pose valuation error in their own right. But oddsmakers seemed to have gotten this game right, and the market agrees.
Phillies line also seems solid, and the market also agrees.
There is nothing inherently cheap about the A's in this one. The market and oddsmakers alike are bearsihs on Chamberlin and are starting to take note of Andersons uptick. This offsets the recent overvalued tendency oddsmakers have placed on the Yankees lineup. No play at current market price.
Only small value on the Rays. Was actually expecting about 10 cents more. The market is starting to really like the Rays and are somewhat getting off the Holliday bandwagon (or the Jays). I will add to my small position on the Rays if the market wants to send the Jays price higher.
My second largest bet on the overnight was the Red Sox. Oddsmakers have not given Penny any respect (rightfully so?) and may have jumped the gun on the recent downturn in their offensive production and Bergensen season performance to date. The market spotted it, and have bid up the Red Sox price nearly 10 percent. Still some value on this team, but nearly as much compared to the open.
My largest bet on the overnight was the Mets. This is one of the few times I have bet on Santana this year. The oddsmakers, not suprisingly, did not fully discount the injury to Berkman and his value over replacement. The downgrade in their bullpen coupled with this injury could make a good go against team in the Astros in the short term.
No value in the Braves/ Brewers game yet. But the market is starting to nibble at the Braves price. If they want to shoot it up some more, I will enter a small position on the Brewers.
This may be the first time in 2 months in which I am not finding any value in betting against Grienke. The price seems spot on here.
The market just opened an opportunity to play the Giants in this one. Cain is flying under the radar in San Francisco partially due to Lincecum. The market does not give him the respect he deserves. Hamels has not handled the high altitude well.
Third largest bet on the overnight was the DBacks. Oddsmakers appeared to surface cap this one when deriving a line. The market picked it off, and shot up the line nearly 15 percent. Not the value they once had, but the Dbacks are still trading below their intrinsic worth.
Last nights game was the epitome of how the Angels are winning with smoke and mirrors. Handicappers have to look at them as an ongoing concern and not what they have done in the past. As an ongoing concern, this team is overrated, and overrated leads to overvalued. Twins are a nicely valued road underdog.
Small value on Johnson and the Marlins. Not sure which facet of the game has the disparity to warrant this line being so high.
Line seems perfect in Seattle now that the market took off any excess crumbs off the table on the Indians.
Opinions are subject to change with new information.
Buffett,
Absolutely agree on many of your opinions. Berkman, as previously discussed, is just as valuable to a team as Hanley Ramirez to the Marlins. He's a major contributor in the middle of the lineup and with him going on DL look for LEE and Tejada to see less pitches as before.
Cain is somewhat under the radar so far with Lincecum receiving all the media attention. If I'm not mistaken Cain has been a top 10 pitcher in MLB. I'm with you on this one as well.
I got in late on the Sox as its tough to figure this team out, however if they had won 2 of 3 in Texas this spread would be in the high 80's to low 90's. People seem hesitant on them at the moment and this includes myself, but as I stated earlier, home cooking!
DBacks was a total surprise to me. I know the early performance by Duke has slowly dwindled but Petit hasn't been anything of importance. Granted the Pirates lineup has been chopped, diced and fully desimated.
This Angels team has crippled me over the last two weeks. I continue to bet against them and look they run of 15 of 18 or something of that nature. I went against them earlier. Liriano still has some upside and I think you get a good performance from him tonight. How can the Twins figure out to lose more games than they have.
I'll be on the lookout for new information as well.
Good Luck with your plays.
GEKKO
Absolutely agree on many of your opinions. Berkman, as previously discussed, is just as valuable to a team as Hanley Ramirez to the Marlins. He's a major contributor in the middle of the lineup and with him going on DL look for LEE and Tejada to see less pitches as before.
Cain is somewhat under the radar so far with Lincecum receiving all the media attention. If I'm not mistaken Cain has been a top 10 pitcher in MLB. I'm with you on this one as well.
I got in late on the Sox as its tough to figure this team out, however if they had won 2 of 3 in Texas this spread would be in the high 80's to low 90's. People seem hesitant on them at the moment and this includes myself, but as I stated earlier, home cooking!
DBacks was a total surprise to me. I know the early performance by Duke has slowly dwindled but Petit hasn't been anything of importance. Granted the Pirates lineup has been chopped, diced and fully desimated.
This Angels team has crippled me over the last two weeks. I continue to bet against them and look they run of 15 of 18 or something of that nature. I went against them earlier. Liriano still has some upside and I think you get a good performance from him tonight. How can the Twins figure out to lose more games than they have.
I'll be on the lookout for new information as well.
Good Luck with your plays.
GEKKO
Just hedged out of my White Sox game 2 play, and am actually slightly net long on the Tigers. No Quienten and the Tigers are putting forth what might be their most potent lineup card in months.
Also note what has transpired in the marketplace the last couple of hours. Favorites are covering at an alarming rate. Due to the statistical nature money line favorites, streaks like these are bound to happen, and chalking it up to anything more than randomness may be a mistake. The market intraday, appears to be chasing favorites, bidding up some already inflated lines. Sharp money may or may not correct this prior to close, but a prudent bettor may want to be more active than ever the next few days picking off any inflated lines oddsmakers may put out on the open in response to these aformentioned variables taking place.
Also note what has transpired in the marketplace the last couple of hours. Favorites are covering at an alarming rate. Due to the statistical nature money line favorites, streaks like these are bound to happen, and chalking it up to anything more than randomness may be a mistake. The market intraday, appears to be chasing favorites, bidding up some already inflated lines. Sharp money may or may not correct this prior to close, but a prudent bettor may want to be more active than ever the next few days picking off any inflated lines oddsmakers may put out on the open in response to these aformentioned variables taking place.
