Ok, got it.
Through Saturday there have been 1,450 games this year. Of those games, there were 56 cases where an away favorite won by exactly one run, and 186 cases where a home favorite won by exactly one run.
This makes a total of 242 (16.69%) cases where a -1.5 RL would lose but the ML would win.
Is that what you were looking for?
Through Saturday there have been 1,450 games this year. Of those games, there were 56 cases where an away favorite won by exactly one run, and 186 cases where a home favorite won by exactly one run.
This makes a total of 242 (16.69%) cases where a -1.5 RL would lose but the ML would win.
Is that what you were looking for?
haha, I fuckin love MySQL. I'm glad focker asked this question, cuz it got me thinking that maybe there is something to these stats. For example, I just found out that this losing scenario only happens 6% of the time when favorites are laying 250 or more. I'll let you know if I find out anything else worthwhile.
Cases in which specified favorites win by EXACTLY 1 run (2009 games):
Home Favorite -101 to -120 / 328 Games / 48 Occurrences / 14.63%
Home Favorite -121 to -140 / 292 / 60 / 20.55%
Home Favorite -141 to -160 / 198 / 37 / 18.69%
Home Favorite -161 to -180 / 105 / 17 / 16.19%
Home Favorite -181 to -200 / 41 / 8 / 19.51%
Home Favorite -201 or more/ 64 / 16 / 25%
Away Favorite -101 to -120 / 272 Games / 48 Occurrences / 17.65%
Away Favorite -121 to -140 / 141 / 24 / 17.02%
Away Favorite -141 to -160 / 53 / 9 / 16.98%
Away Favorite 161 or more / 14 / 2 / 14.29%
Sorry about the ugly presentation. I don't even know how to make a chart on this forum.
Home Favorite -101 to -120 / 328 Games / 48 Occurrences / 14.63%
Home Favorite -121 to -140 / 292 / 60 / 20.55%
Home Favorite -141 to -160 / 198 / 37 / 18.69%
Home Favorite -161 to -180 / 105 / 17 / 16.19%
Home Favorite -181 to -200 / 41 / 8 / 19.51%
Home Favorite -201 or more/ 64 / 16 / 25%
Away Favorite -101 to -120 / 272 Games / 48 Occurrences / 17.65%
Away Favorite -121 to -140 / 141 / 24 / 17.02%
Away Favorite -141 to -160 / 53 / 9 / 16.98%
Away Favorite 161 or more / 14 / 2 / 14.29%
Sorry about the ugly presentation. I don't even know how to make a chart on this forum.
Those numbers just mean that a home team favorite is 1.75% more likely to win by exactly 1 run than an away team favorite.
This would mean, I think, that the RL is generally a slightly better play when utilized for away favorites. I don't have a RL system though, so I'm not 100% sure on this.
