Houston @ Chicago Cubs:
I'm going on the notion that Derrick Lee is playing in this game. Granted Mr. Rodrigues has been pitching well but Zambrano also has matched him. These pitchers squared off a month ago and both had a ND. A key factor is Berkman being out. I'll take the home team here with a pitcher who most likely will give you a Quality Start. Wandy has a Plus 1 ERA on the road. He's having a great year but I look for the Cubs to have more clutch hits in the end today.
I'm going on the notion that Derrick Lee is playing in this game. Granted Mr. Rodrigues has been pitching well but Zambrano also has matched him. These pitchers squared off a month ago and both had a ND. A key factor is Berkman being out. I'll take the home team here with a pitcher who most likely will give you a Quality Start. Wandy has a Plus 1 ERA on the road. He's having a great year but I look for the Cubs to have more clutch hits in the end today.
The overnights provided a decent enough card. The market has done a good job picking off value today. Nice price you got on the Dbacks yesterday. I got in at +112. This is the third straight game in which they have been undervalued. There is no fundamental reason for their production disparity at home to be this negative, and books are discounting this variable superficially.
I bought Texas at -130 i will keep this one,
O's -140: Do this one is worth buying back? with the line going in my favor which i thought would
Jays +162: line has went up, thought it would go down around to +152-+155 range at closing i was wrong. Felix no doubt is dealing, but Mariners line is in a big slump, Romero has some good stuff and is way than capable of overpowering this line up. Both bullpen are a mess but both of these guys go deep. Jays have the edge at the plate.
What do you guys think about the Mets line? No doubt about it Perez control problems, Rockies way better line up than the Mets in factored in. Oddmakers and Market don't seem to buy into Mets mini tear on offense. If this one climbs up to +155 i might have to take a shot with the home doggie, their limited offense seems to get away with it at home being that it is a pitchers park.
Nice price you got in with Texas. I was indifferent to the game on the overnight, but in my opinion, the market is opening up value on the Tigers. The Tigers team as a whole is an overvalued entity, but the market is still overly bearish on Galalaraga dispite it appearing he worked out of few things.
I got in on the O's at -147. If the lineup card does not change my fair values, I will not buy back anything given the current market price. If my position was entered at -140, a small buyback would be warranted.
I currently value the Mariners game at -150/+150, so I don't think a bid up was warranted. Not sure where the different perpception lies between me and the market, as my valuation is bearish on Romero, bullish on Hernandez, and bearish on the Blue Jays lineup.
I see small value on the Mets. Perez's concerns are well documented and reflected in the price. The question is whether it is over reflected. Perez's performance is not dependent on the quality of the lineup he faces (a good thing when backing him against good lineups) but whether he has his stuff that particular day and if the opposing lineup is patient at the plate. The Rockies may not come with the right approach in this game (lack patience), especially with the way they have been swinging the bats of late.
I don't think the market has yet to fully adjust to the absence of Berkman. Often times it is perception of the value of the player that has more bearing on the line that the value that player has over his replacement (the true oportunity cost of his absence). This has helped lead the Astros to having a continual overvalued bias since his injury.
I also think that the market is over quanitifying Rodriguez's value on the road. The duration, disparity, and consitency of H/A production should not be ignored, and I think the market is starting to ignore it now that he has strung 3 solid road starts in a row. Rodriguez fairs better against lineups whose strength comes from the left side. He will face 1 batter from the left side today. He also has the propensity to get worse as the season progresses. He has been known to battle dead arm in the past. His innings total is approaching last years level, and we are still in June. His career ERA when pitching after accumulating 135 innings pithced is over 5. My guess is that we have scene the best of him, and possibly be a lot.
