7-30

GordonGekko · Jul 30, 2009

I'm not too sure that I enjoyed yesterday with San Diego and Oakland both scoring 5 runs in the 1st. Penny and Harang hit hard early.

Looking at some action to cut into deficit that is quite heavy. WHo are we looking at today?

olballcoach · Jul 30, 2009

alldogs · Jul 30, 2009

yesterday i played 2 unders with 5 runs in the first 2 innings of both games with 8.5 o/u, not a great day here either

the phillies line seems to be weird to me with opening at -120 and now about a pk

TheHungerForMore · Jul 30, 2009

Astros are worth a small bet here at +184 and it's still heading up. Oddmakers have caught up wit Ortiz. I don't believe Kevin Hart is a good enough pitcher trust or win 66% of the time in this situation.

BALLBREAKER · Jul 30, 2009

GL BUDDY............cubbies:toast:

buffettgambler · Jul 30, 2009

Lines look really tight today in my opinion. What little value there was, the market has been nibbling on those teams.

Alldogs,
The Greek opened up the Phillies with a no-vig price of -111. Their current no-vig price is -105.

TheHungerForMore · Jul 30, 2009

Don't know what to think about O's line. I would of liked them if Jim Johnson or Alberts were available but are unlikely to go due to both pitching 2 innings.

TheHungerForMore · Jul 30, 2009

Rockies look slightly value to me but not enough for me go against Johan here who's great at home.

TheHungerForMore · Jul 30, 2009

I really like the way Atlanta is set for tonight, the better pitcher on the moud, all the key arms out of the bullpen are fresh for them. The same can't be said about Florida back to back days they used their main guys. Even if they go Braves get a third look at them.

buffettgambler · Jul 30, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
Don't know what to think about O's line. I would of liked them if Jim Johnson or Alberts were available but are unlikely to go due to both pitching 2 innings.

My largest bet on the overnight (not that large of a bet though) was the Orioles -144. I never thought I would be a buyer of Bergenson with the way he has been pitching over his true production capability, but oddsmakers are really bearish on the Orioles right now. The line has moved signficantly, and I have downgraded them 3 cents on lineup information.

The Mets line seems fair enough not to play the Rockies.

TheHungerForMore · Jul 30, 2009

What do you think of Astros +184 as a small play?

buffettgambler · Jul 30, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
What do you think of Astros +184 as a small play?

I currently value the game at Cubs -179/ Astros +179. I have a large margin of safety on this game predicated on valuation error. My entry levels on this game start at the Cubs -172/Astros +186.

I agree with you that the market probably has caughten up to Ortiz true worth. But it appears that means he is no longer an ideal fade, rather a pitcher who does not create value on either side.

TheHungerForMore · Jul 30, 2009

buffettgambler said:
I currently value the game at Cubs -179/ Astros +179. I have a large margin of safety on this game predicated on valuation error. My entry levels on this game start at the Cubs -172/Astros +186.

I agree with you that the market probably has caughten up to Ortiz true worth. But it appears that means he is no longer an ideal fade, rather a pitcher who does not create value on either side.

My reasoning they are pricing Ortiz true worth, but who is Kevin Hart to be layin this much wood he can't be trusted.

buffettgambler · Jul 30, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
My reasoning they are pricing Ortiz true worth, but who is Kevin Hart to be layin this much wood he can't be trusted.

My guess is that Ortiz is being valued efficiently, Hart is being overvalued, but the Astros bullpen and lineup is being overvalued (based on my being on the Cubs this entire series). Interesting line movement in this game.

TheHungerForMore · Jul 30, 2009

A interesting line is the Yankees/White Sox. Gavin Floyd outstanding numbers at home and underrated. Andy who is tough on lefties where most of White Sox potent bats come from. Yankees bullpen rolling right now. I played the Under overnight at 9.5.

Snappa · Jul 30, 2009

Believe Pettite has a significantly lower ERA on the road this season than at home too ..... GL !

w8lifterguy · Jul 30, 2009

Absolutely love the Braves with Vazquez today. Still underpriced IMO at -157. Braves are due to break out and Marlins took first two games so ATL avoiding the sweep.

Good Luck today

TheHungerForMore · Jul 30, 2009

w8lifterguy said:
Absolutely love the Braves with Vazquez today. Still underpriced IMO at -157. Braves are due to break out and Marlins took first two games so ATL avoiding the sweep.

Good Luck today

Damn. That's a terrible price. You can get them-146 at matchbook.

w8lifterguy · Jul 30, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
Damn. That's a terrible price. You can get them-146 at matchbook.

I know but am playing at one place. Sure there are better prices, but real confident ATL bats breakout tonight against Vandenhurk.

Thanks and best of luck

GordonGekko · Jul 30, 2009

No Ramirez...In cubs game..

7-30

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