The difference between what I call an 'Upset Special' and 'Money Play' is in fact that I believe that 'Upset Special' dogs have a better chance to win outright while 'Money Plays' are based more on value. So, by taking Winnipeg +4.5 against Toronto, I'm simply taking valuable and generous points in a matchup involving two even teams, without taking any moneylines. Why Winnipeg ? Well, it is more of a play against the inconsistent Argos who haven't won consecutive games since 2007. They are 0-5 after a win since week 1 of 2008. They just won at Winnipeg last week but neither team played well in that game. Toronto could be caught looking ahead here with three big games comming up. First, they have a revenge against the eastern leading Montreal in less than a week. Then they have a game against BC a team they lost 53-28 last time they met them. And finally, after the BC game, Toronto has a revenge game against the defending champs from Calgary who beat them 44-9 two weeks ago. M.Bishop can only be an upgrade at the QB position for the Bombers. The Astros are not 100% healthy and they traded their best reciever to Hamilton. I'll go with Winnipeg +4.5 here.
