8/2 MLB Discussion

TheHungerForMore · Aug 2, 2009

Seems like a lot of unattractive dogs on the board some that might provide value.

One of them being the Reds with the line ups out i'm liking what they put out besides the lead off hitter.

Berken has been bad but can O's offense keep them in the game to make it a bullpen battle? Clay hasn't really outstanding either he doesn't really warrant this kind of price. Am still thinking weather i should buy the price i got at +155.

More to add. Lets get our opinions out before the games start.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 2, 2009

Prices i got and most likely keeping.

Marlins -110 Large (may buy back for a medium play when i see line ups)
Yankees -130 Medium

Lines that are moving in my favor that i like.

Blue Jays Large

D-Backs +110 and moving up.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 2, 2009

I can see why the Diamondbacks line has been moving out of their favor due to the release of the lineup. Looking like a no play.

buffettgambler · Aug 2, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
I can see why the Diamondbacks line has been moving out of their favor due to the release of the lineup. Looking like a no play.

Very true. In fact, I don't think the market discounted the DBacks enough on the lineup information. Adding another small position to my Mets -104 overnight play.

GordonGekko · Aug 2, 2009

Hunger and Buffett,

Just got back from Saratoga and have no idea with today's Card. Could you offer some advice? Looking to tail if you don't mind. Bet the horses all weekend and most of them either got euthinized, jockey fell off, ran the wrong way, lightning struck em, and other misguided miscues. Just kidding.

GEKKO

TheHungerForMore · Aug 2, 2009

buffettgambler said:
Very true. In fact, I don't think the market discounted the DBacks enough on the lineup information. Adding another small position to my Mets -104 overnight play.

You are looking real good with that overnight line. I might have to jump on the Mets but i hate when i miss the best line by 10 cent or more.

Market is agreeing with Marins, Reds and O's.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 2, 2009

Gordon Gekko said:
Hunger and Buffett,

Just got back from Saratoga and have no idea with today's Card. Could you offer some advice? Looking to tail if you don't mind. Bet the horses all weekend and most of them either got euthinized, jockey fell off, ran the wrong way, lightning struck em, and other misguided miscues. Just kidding.

GEKKO

Sup Gordon. I took over for you the last two days. Had a real good day Friday and got slapped yesterday.

GordonGekko · Aug 2, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
Sup Gordon. I took over for you the last two days. Had a real good day Friday and got slapped yesterday.

Thats fine. Always looking for information as always.

:toast:

GordonGekko · Aug 2, 2009

I jumped on these lines last night/early morning:

Florida Marlns -112 Large Play
NY METS -110
Detroit -110
N Y Yanks -135

So far ....

TheHungerForMore · Aug 2, 2009

Gordon, the Market took away value away from the O's and Marlins. I like Yankees, Blue Jays at current price. I still think Reds offer something right now as a small play if you can get over +120. Buffet was liking the Mets overnight and looks golden with the line up DBacks put out.

buffettgambler · Aug 2, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
You are looking real good with that overnight line. I might have to jump on the Mets but i hate when i miss the best line by 10 cent or more.

Market is agreeing with Marins, Reds and O's.

I think the market was right with their bid down on the Reds and O's ( I had the Reds large on the overnight, but no position on the O's). I have to question the line move on the Marlins with the strong possiblity that Ramirez will be out.

Yes, it is psychologically discomforting to bet a game in which you could have gotten in earlier at a superior price, but that has to be treated as a sunk cost. Also, new information came out on the game, and one could easily make the case that the Mets are coming with more value now (factoring in the new information) than they were when selling at 10 cents left (with that information lacking).

buffettgambler · Aug 2, 2009

Gordon Gekko said:
Hunger and Buffett,

Just got back from Saratoga and have no idea with today's Card. Could you offer some advice? Looking to tail if you don't mind. Bet the horses all weekend and most of them either got euthinized, jockey fell off, ran the wrong way, lightning struck em, and other misguided miscues. Just kidding.

GEKKO

Gordon, some of my plays on the overnight are the following

Yankees -130 Medium----- current price and lineup information makes the Yankees currently warrant no play. I will buy back this position

Mets -104 and -114. Medium----current price warrants a small play.

Reds +134-- medium/large---- current price warrants small to medium

Dodgers +116--small to medium---current price warrants medium to large. I will be adding to this position.

Brewers +114 Large

Tigers -106 Medium- Current price warrants no play.

Twins +114- Medium-- Current price warrants and lineup information warrants a medium play still.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 2, 2009

buffettgambler said:
I think the market was right with their bid down on the Reds and O's ( I had the Reds large on the overnight, but no position on the O's). I have to question the line move on the Marlins with the strong possiblity that Ramirez will be out.

Yes, it is psychologically discomforting to bet a game in which you could have gotten in earlier at a superior price, but that has to be treated as a sunk cost. Also, new information came out on the game, and one could easily make the case that the Mets are coming with more value now (factoring in the new information) than they were when selling at 10 cents left (with that information lacking).

You are completely right added the Mets at -113 for medium.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 2, 2009

How much is Posada worth over Molina?

HanDiCaPThiS · Aug 2, 2009

Posada is the anchor of the Yankees offense in many close games, a lot

I_Need_Money · Aug 2, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
How much is Posada worth over Molina?

Normally a lot, however Molina is hitting .385, 5 for 13 with a HR and 2 BB against Buehrle.
Posada is 3 for 18 against him, so I'd say the switch isn't so bad today. Plus Posada can be used as a switch hitting pinch hitter later in the game.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 2, 2009

I_Need_Money said:
Normally a lot, however Molina is hitting .385, 5 for 13 with a HR and 2 BB against Buehrle.
Posada is 3 for 18 against him, so I'd say the switch isn't so bad today. Plus Posada can be used as a switch hitting pinch hitter later in the game.

Good post. He'll most likely be switched late in the game.

buffettgambler · Aug 2, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
How much is Posada worth over Molina?

In this particular game 8 cents. Typically he is worth even more. One of the larger VORP currently going.

I_Need_Money · Aug 2, 2009

I'm kind of liking the Yankees to avoid the sweep here more and more.

Sabathia career at US Cellular, is 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
There are only 2 hitters in the WSox lineup who hit over .300 against Sabathia (Alexei and Dye), and Alexei isn't playing.

GordonGekko · Aug 2, 2009

buffettgambler said:
Gordon, some of my plays on the overnight are the following

Yankees -130 Medium----- current price and lineup information makes the Yankees currently warrant no play. I will buy back this position

Mets -104 and -114. Medium----current price warrants a small play.

Reds +134-- medium/large---- current price warrants small to medium

Dodgers +116--small to medium---current price warrants medium to large. I will be adding to this position.

Brewers +114 Large

Tigers -106 Medium- Current price warrants no play.

Twins +114- Medium-- Current price warrants and lineup information warrants a medium play still.