All those reasons mentioned carry great insentive for oddsmakers to inflate the Cubs asking price. Yes, the Reds lost again today, but the market made a clear statement that oddsmakers deflated their price on the open. They also made a clear statement that they inflated the Cubs opening price for todays game, biding up the Marlins ask 15% even with Hanley getting injured yesterday after books sent out the opening price.
Put these two teams together, and you will certainly see a premium on the Cubs. No other team has been bid up off the no-vig open than the Reds (aside from the Tigers). With the Reds giving little fundamental reason to back them, the bid down speaks volumes.
Those are the two books that set the opener. All other books wait for the line to settle at these two shops before putting out their lines. Why not find the oddsmakers implied winning probability of the Cubs by quanitifying the no-vig line that accounts for the overound at these shops? Would that not be more prudent than looking at another that may offer cheaper odds but is a price taker rather than a price maker.
No one is telling you to bet there, but an analysis of what oddsmakers are thinking should start there.
Whats not to like.. Two teams and two different pitchers going in different directions..
Reds last 7 games: .171 BA .223 OBP 1-6 Record
Cubs have won 8 out of last 10
Reds have lost 9 out of last 10 and SIX IN A ROW!!!
Harang hasn't won a game since 5/25 and is 0-7 in his last 12 starts. Wells has won 7 of his last 8 starts..
Wells hasn't gave up more than 4 runs or 7 hits in any of his last 10 starts. 1.15 WHIP
Harang 1.46 WHIP.
Reds under .500 home record.
Whats not to like.. -138 on the Cubs??? Thats it?
Reds last 7 games: .171 BA .223 OBP 1-6 Record
Cubs have won 8 out of last 10
Reds have lost 9 out of last 10 and SIX IN A ROW!!!
Harang hasn't won a game since 5/25 and is 0-7 in his last 12 starts. Wells has won 7 of his last 8 starts..
Wells hasn't gave up more than 4 runs or 7 hits in any of his last 10 starts. 1.15 WHIP
Harang 1.46 WHIP.
Reds under .500 home record.
Whats not to like.. -138 on the Cubs??? Thats it?
Have to agree...Cubs are hot right now while the Reds are not. Hadn't had a bet including the Reds in a while and today I did and when I looked at the lineup, its just miserable.
I like how the Cubs have been playing...they also know they are in a race with St. Louis, Houston, and Milwaukee and need to keep up the good play to stay ahead.
I like the Cubs -1 tomorrow.
I like how the Cubs have been playing...they also know they are in a race with St. Louis, Houston, and Milwaukee and need to keep up the good play to stay ahead.
I like the Cubs -1 tomorrow.
first time i seen you joke.
No need for him to post his plays. He share his analysis and opinions. Why post plays for people that don't want to take the time, effort, hard work, advice, etc to get better and handicap the right way, i'll say that goes for 97% of the forum. The same 97% of the forum rather just view people threads who just post picks and not know if that people really has any knowledge to the sport or what they're doing.
