Congrats allstr:
Great call, not just because it won.
Everyone (like me)was looking at the Under in the game but not a lot of value, imo...considering how Billingsley has been pitching of late.
Never even thought of the First Inning angle.
Good value to with a line of -130 to -145, too.
Was able to parlay it too with TX...both RL and ML.
We will see how that works out.
Seriously good spot of value you found.
TY
Catch(<)<
Great call, not just because it won.
Everyone (like me)was looking at the Under in the game but not a lot of value, imo...considering how Billingsley has been pitching of late.
Never even thought of the First Inning angle.
Good value to with a line of -130 to -145, too.
Was able to parlay it too with TX...both RL and ML.
We will see how that works out.
Seriously good spot of value you found.
TY
Catch(<)<
I can't refrain from commenting on this thread. The original poster was "lucky" enough to cash tonight, but the logic is ludicrous.
Anyone who blindly follows this thread headed for trouble...here's why:
Using data from the beginning of this season coupled with data from last year shows the probability of Chad Billingsly allowing a run in the 1st inning is ~44.8% and the probability of Jurrjens allowing a run in the 1st is ~37.5%. Using Poisson to evaluate the probability of EITHER of these allowing a run in the 1st reveals a probability of ~56%.
You may calculate the probability yourself: d1g1t
Probability that either of event occurs P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B).
The odds you were offered is not even close to the "correct" odds that were associated with that particular wager. Laying money (-130) on a wager that should be PLUS money, is a recipe for disaster.
I will not comment further on this.
Good luck with your future wagers
Anyone who blindly follows this thread headed for trouble...here's why:
Using data from the beginning of this season coupled with data from last year shows the probability of Chad Billingsly allowing a run in the 1st inning is ~44.8% and the probability of Jurrjens allowing a run in the 1st is ~37.5%. Using Poisson to evaluate the probability of EITHER of these allowing a run in the 1st reveals a probability of ~56%.
You may calculate the probability yourself: d1g1t
Probability that either of event occurs P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B).
The odds you were offered is not even close to the "correct" odds that were associated with that particular wager. Laying money (-130) on a wager that should be PLUS money, is a recipe for disaster.
I will not comment further on this.
Good luck with your future wagers
If you would have read the intitial post, you would have understood the reasoning for my pick. Look back the past week or two at the games these two teams have played. They have both faced many different pitchers and neither has managed to put up a run consistently in the 1st. They may have allowed runs, but they just don't score and will not score.
Although I may not have posted often on this forum, i will post plays as i see them. BTW when a member like you criticizes my pick with sub 500 posts it means nothing. I am glad to see many others appreciated the play.
Although I may not have posted often on this forum, i will post plays as i see them. BTW when a member like you criticizes my pick with sub 500 posts it means nothing. I am glad to see many others appreciated the play.
