Clicked on the early pick last week with <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">Edmonton</st1lace></st1:City>.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o> </o>
Someone sent me a note as to what I look at when making these early picks. For those interested, this is what my process is:
<o> </o>
I look at the next week match-ups prior to their last games as I do not want to be overly influenced by the last game. I pick my projected outright winners in those games or put a ? mark beside toss-ups.
I watch the games.
I take my match-ups and see if my initial thoughts hold after the games.
I make my line as to what I think the books should use.
When the lines come out I look and see if any of my projected outright winners are dogs. If so then they are an early pick for sure. I almost always bet these ML as well but do not post that as there are obvious risks there. If any of my toss-ups are dogs by more than my perceived lines then they could be an early pick. If any of my projected winners are favored and present with a favorable line by 2 or more then those are in the mix as well.
Generally this is all done by Sunday night prior to the Monday lines. This forms the underpinnings of all my picks for the week as well.
<o> </o>
This week’s early pick:
<o> </o>
<st1:City w:st="on">Winnipeg</st1:City> @ <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Calgary:</st1lace></st1:City> This fits two profiles I like. One is an underdog by double digits after winning outright on the road vs a heavy home favorite after losing outright last game as a strong favorite. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Winnipeg</st1lace></st1:City> scares the beejusus out of me with Bishop but I do love their defense. <st1:City w:st="on">Calgary</st1:City> has lost Rambo which hurts and has <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Edmonton</st1lace></st1:City> on deck. I have the line at 8 so the overlay has me on <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Winnipeg</st1lace></st1:City> +14
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Edmonton</st1lace></st1:City>.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>Someone sent me a note as to what I look at when making these early picks. For those interested, this is what my process is:
<o
> </o>I look at the next week match-ups prior to their last games as I do not want to be overly influenced by the last game. I pick my projected outright winners in those games or put a ? mark beside toss-ups.
I watch the games.
I take my match-ups and see if my initial thoughts hold after the games.
I make my line as to what I think the books should use.
When the lines come out I look and see if any of my projected outright winners are dogs. If so then they are an early pick for sure. I almost always bet these ML as well but do not post that as there are obvious risks there. If any of my toss-ups are dogs by more than my perceived lines then they could be an early pick. If any of my projected winners are favored and present with a favorable line by 2 or more then those are in the mix as well.
Generally this is all done by Sunday night prior to the Monday lines. This forms the underpinnings of all my picks for the week as well.
<o
> </o>This week’s early pick:
<o
> </o><st1:City w:st="on">Winnipeg</st1:City> @ <st1:City w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">Calgary:</st1lace></st1:City> This fits two profiles I like. One is an underdog by double digits after winning outright on the road vs a heavy home favorite after losing outright last game as a strong favorite. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Winnipeg</st1lace></st1:City> scares the beejusus out of me with Bishop but I do love their defense. <st1:City w:st="on">Calgary</st1:City> has lost Rambo which hurts and has <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Edmonton</st1lace></st1:City> on deck. I have the line at 8 so the overlay has me on <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Winnipeg</st1lace></st1:City> +14
