8/4 MLB Discussion

TheHungerForMore · Aug 4, 2009

J.D. Martin has array of different pitches but just doesn't have the stuff to last in the majors. His favor pitch the slider has been getting hit hard especially by left handed hitters, curve ball he likes to use this as put away pitch has a slow drop to it so hitters have a chance to pull it or slap it foul. This is not a good match-up for him against a hot Marlins line up.

Josh Johnson is a stud, he has been dominated this season and not being price as he should in a huge pitching miss-match. Florida holds the better bullpen as well, Leo Nunez should have no trouble with the dimensions of this ball park for the save if needed.

-160 medium

Share your thoughts on today's card.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 4, 2009

If anyone has information on the ump tonight in the Cardinals/Mets game please let me know what kind of strike zone he has. Thanks.

GordonGekko · Aug 4, 2009

Need to get down to some business here as once again the hole known as Monday has dug me deep into financial depression. Most of the teams rallied like the horses at Saratoga but couldn't catch the leaders at the wire on Monday. SF, LA, NY Mets, Atlanta (no gas left), didn't see Washington till late...damn it.

Boston @ Tampa:
Garza has pitched extremely well vs the Sox and holding them under a 200 average while Lester has been the opposite with a 300 average. Line opened up and has swung in Rays direction. Both pitchers of late haven't had there A game. Walks have been a little issue with Garza having 8 in 3 games and Lester 9 in 3 games. Although the game against A's the strike zone was as large as a breadbasket.

Lean: Tampa -107

TheHungerForMore · Aug 4, 2009

Gordon Gekko said:
Need to get down to some business here as once again the hole known as Monday has dug me deep into financial depression. Most of the teams rallied like the horses at Saratoga but couldn't catch the leaders at the wire on Monday. SF, LA, NY Mets, Atlanta (no gas left), didn't see Washington till late...damn it.

Boston @ Tampa:
Garza has pitched extremely well vs the Sox and holding them under a 200 average while Lester has been the opposite with a 300 average. Line opened up and has swung in Rays direction. Both pitchers of late haven't had there A game. Walks have been a little issue with Garza having 8 in 3 games and Lester 9 in 3 games. Although the game against A's the strike zone was as large as a breadbasket.

Lean: Tampa -107

Sorry to hear that. Hopefully you hit a rush this week.

I'm playing the over 8.5 in that game at +115.

GordonGekko · Aug 4, 2009

Line swinging in that game even though 55+ on Boston?

TheHungerForMore · Aug 4, 2009

Anyone got any info/scouting report on Brian Matusz? Would like to know at this price with the way O's are hitting, regressing hasn't set in for Washburn and not in a pitcher's park anymore.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 4, 2009

Gordon Gekko said:
Line swinging in that game even though 55+ on Boston?

Probably the reason you stated. Good history and bad history.

GordonGekko · Aug 4, 2009

He's a nice little lefty but seems to be rushed to the majors with only 2/3 of minor league experience. 49% of his outs are GB and maybe a good spot start.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 4, 2009

Atlanta line is getting beat down.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 4, 2009

I put in a play on the White Sox.

I would really like info on the ump before i bet on the Mets. If Pineiro gets that border line outside low pitch he could live on that all night which makes him so tough to beat.

tommyjohn44 · Aug 4, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
Anyone got any info/scouting report on Brian Matusz? Would like to know at this price with the way O's are hitting, regressing hasn't set in for Washburn and not in a pitcher's park anymore.

Washburn isn't in a pitchers park anymore??? He's pitching in Detroit!!!

tommyjohn44 · Aug 4, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
J.D. Martin has array of different pitches but just doesn't have the stuff to last in the majors. His favor pitch the slider has been getting hit hard especially by left handed hitters, curve ball he likes to use this as put away pitch has a slow drop to it so hitters have a chance to pull it or slap it foul. This is not a good match-up for him against a hot Marlins line up.

Josh Johnson is a stud, he has been dominated this season and not being price as he should in a huge pitching miss-match. Florida holds the better bullpen as well, Leo Nunez should have no trouble with the dimensions of this ball park for the save if needed.

-160 medium

Share your thoughts on today's card.

I agree on this play. IMO, the Marlins should be priced somewhere in the 185-195 range.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 4, 2009

tommyjohn44 said:
Washburn isn't in a pitchers park anymore??? He's pitching in Detroit!!!

Oops.

tommyjohn44 · Aug 4, 2009

Just wanted to make sure you didn't handicap that game with Detroit on the road.

buffettgambler · Aug 4, 2009

I don't see much value on today's card. Oddsmakers set some decent lines, and the market really hasn't opened anything up in my opinion. Probably the two more undervalued teams today are the Braves and Mets, but don't warrant more than a medium play.

HanDiCaPThiS · Aug 4, 2009

This is what I'm looking at:

NYY +129 for a small bet
Tampa -114 small/medium bet
Phillies +1.5 +145 medium bet
SF -101 for a medium/large bet

Yankees game will be very tight, but I think the edge is on their side. Halladay hasn't been throwing great lately with a ton of NDs and tight games being played, he is continuously getting into jams early in games. Don't really like playing Petitte considering he's probably the worst play on their staff most nights, but there is some value in the line tonight, and the Yankees need to get back on track to stay in the division race after their debocle in Chicago.

Boston has a stud on the mound tonight, although he's not the same dominant pitcher on the road as he is at home. Lester has been getting destroyed by the Rays this season while Garza is 2-0 with a sub 2.00 ERA. Lester has given up 13 runs in his 2 starts against Tampa in just 9 1/3 innings.

Phillies struggled against San Fran, but they should have Victorino and Ibanez back in the line-up tonight. Moyer has been pitching well lately, finally finding his groove while Hammels has been the polar opposite. Moyer is 6-1 in his last 7 starts with only 1 of those wins being a 1 run game, Hammels is 1-3 in his last 7 starts with 3 NDs and his one win was against Oakland. 2 NDs were 1 run games, 1 L was 1-0. **If Victorino OR Ibanez aren't in the line-up tonight I won't play this, but assuming one of them is I will (Hopefully they both go)

San Fran tonight should win pretty easily. Paulino has been horrible, only going 2 innings in his last starts vs SF and hasn't started a game in almost a month. Coming in tonight because of Oswalt's scratch this should be a pretty salty play. Sanchez is 0-8 on the road, but I think this will be the lesser of two horrible pitching performances.

Goodluck obviously opinions are asked for, none of these plays are locked in but I'm pretty positive this is what I'm going unless I hear good reasons why not to.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 4, 2009

Man, if Bosox climb up to +120 don't you think that worth a play Buffett?

buffettgambler · Aug 4, 2009

HanDiCaPThiS said:
This is what I'm looking at:

NYY +129 for a small bet
Tampa -114 small/medium bet
Phillies +1.5 +145 medium bet
SF -101 for a medium/large bet

Yankees game will be very tight, but I think the edge is on their side. Halladay hasn't been throwing great lately with a ton of NDs and tight games being played, he is continuously getting into jams early in games. Don't really like playing Petitte considering he's probably the worst play on their staff most nights, but there is some value in the line tonight, and the Yankees need to get back on track to stay in the division race after their debocle in Chicago.

Boston has a stud on the mound tonight, although he's not the same dominant pitcher on the road as he is at home. Lester has been getting destroyed by the Rays this season while Garza is 2-0 with a sub 2.00 ERA. Lester has given up 13 runs in his 2 starts against Tampa in just 9 1/3 innings.

Phillies struggled against San Fran, but they should have Victorino and Ibanez back in the line-up tonight. Moyer has been pitching well lately, finally finding his groove while Hammels has been the polar opposite. Moyer is 6-1 in his last 7 starts with only 1 of those wins being a 1 run game, Hammels is 1-3 in his last 7 starts with 3 NDs and his one win was against Oakland. 2 NDs were 1 run games, 1 L was 1-0. **If Victorino OR Ibanez aren't in the line-up tonight I won't play this, but assuming one of them is I will (Hopefully they both go)

San Fran tonight should win pretty easily. Paulino has been horrible, only going 2 innings in his last starts vs SF and hasn't started a game in almost a month. Coming in tonight because of Oswalt's scratch this should be a pretty salty play. Sanchez is 0-8 on the road, but I think this will be the lesser of two horrible pitching performances.

Goodluck obviously opinions are asked for, none of these plays are locked in but I'm pretty positive this is what I'm going unless I hear good reasons why not to.

Nice write-ups.

buffettgambler · Aug 4, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
Man, if Bosox climb up to +120 don't you think that worth a play Buffett?

If Drew is in the lineup today (and Martinez is in for either Lowell or Varitek), they would warrant a play at their current market price. If not, it will probably take a tad more than +120 to enter a position.

buffettgambler · Aug 4, 2009

With the White Sox carrying small value on the overnight, a downgrade in the Angels intrinsic value sinc the overnight, and a market bid up on the Angels team, the White Sox carry enough value at the no-vig +137 to warrant a medium play in my opinion.