8/7 MLB Discussion

<table style="width: 100%;" border="0"><tbody><tr class="Column_Date_Headers_Odds"><td colspan="7">MLB Baseball - Fri 8/7

</td> </tr><tr class="Column_Headers_Odds"> <td colspan="3">Game</td><td>Run Line</td><td>Money Line</td><td>Total Runs</td><td>More</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>901</td><td>Florida Marlins
R. Nolasco</td><td>+1.5 -155</td><td>+137</td><td>OVER 9 -104</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:35 PM</td><td>902</td><td>Philadelphia Phillies
J. Blanton</td><td>-1.5 +145</td><td>-145</td><td>UNDER 9 -106</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>903</td><td>St Louis Cardinals
C. Carpenter</td><td>-1.5 -144</td><td>-242</td><td>OVER 7 -120</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>904</td><td>Pittsburgh Pirates
P. Maholm</td><td>+1.5 +134</td><td>+224</td><td>UNDER 7 +110</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>905</td><td>Arizona D-Backs
J. Garland</td><td>+1.5 -210</td><td>-104</td><td>OVER 9 -105</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>906</td><td>Washington Nationals
C. Balester</td><td>-1.5 +190</td><td>-104</td><td>UNDER 9 -105</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>907</td><td>Milwaukee Brewers
C. Villanueva</td><td>+1.5 -171</td><td>+115</td><td>OVER 9 -110</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>05:05 PM</td><td>908</td><td>Houston Astros
B. Norris</td><td>-1.5 +161</td><td>-123</td><td>UNDER 9 +100</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>909</td><td>Chicago Cubs
C. Zambrano</td><td>+1.5 -181</td><td>+114</td><td>OVER 9 +105</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>06:10 PM</td><td>910</td><td>Colorado Rockies
U. Jimenez</td><td>-1.5 +171</td><td>-122</td><td>UNDER 9 -115</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>911</td><td>New York Mets
OL. Perez</td><td>+1.5 -175</td><td>+126</td><td>OVER 7.5 +105</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>07:05 PM</td><td>912</td><td>San Diego Padres
K. Correia</td><td>-1.5 +165</td><td>-134</td><td>UNDER 7.5 -115</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>913</td><td>Atlanta Braves
J Jurrjens</td><td>+1.5 -180</td><td>+122</td><td>OVER 7.5 -107</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>07:10 PM</td><td>914</td><td>Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Billingsley</td><td>-1.5 +170</td><td>-130</td><td>UNDER 7.5 -103</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>915</td><td>Cincinnati Reds
H. Bailey</td><td>+1.5 +128</td><td>+270</td><td>OVER 7 -116</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>07:15 PM</td><td>916</td><td>San Francisco Giants
T. Lincecum</td><td>-1.5 -138</td><td>-300</td><td>UNDER 7 +106</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>917</td><td>Boston Red Sox
J. Beckett</td><td>+1.5 -191</td><td>+113</td><td>OVER 9 +114</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>918</td><td>New York Yankees
A. Burnett</td><td>-1.5 +178</td><td>-121</td><td>UNDER 9 -124</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>919</td><td>Baltimore Orioles
J. Berken</td><td>+1.5 -138</td><td>+158</td><td>OVER 9 -115</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>920</td><td>Toronto Blue Jays
R. Romero</td><td>-1.5 +128</td><td>-166</td><td>UNDER 9 +105</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>921</td><td>Minnesota Twins
A. Swarzak</td><td>+1.5 -180</td><td>+105</td><td>OVER 9.5 +101</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>922</td><td>Detroit Tigers
A. Galarraga</td><td>-1.5 +170</td><td>-113</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -111</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>923</td><td>Cleveland Indians
J. Sowers</td><td>+1.5 -111</td><td>+185</td><td>OVER 9 -121</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>05:10 PM</td><td>924</td><td>Chicago White Sox
M. Buehrle</td><td>-1.5 +101</td><td>-201</td><td>UNDER 9 +111</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>925</td><td>Oakland Athletics
V. Mazzaro</td><td>+1.5 -171</td><td>+122</td><td>OVER 9 -110</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>05:10 PM</td><td>926</td><td>Kansas City Royals
B. Bannister</td><td>-1.5 +161</td><td>-130</td><td>UNDER 9 +100</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>927</td><td>Texas Rangers
S. Feldman</td><td>+1.5 -165</td><td>+122</td><td>OVER 9.5 -115</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>07:05 PM</td><td>928</td><td>LAA Angels
J. Saunders</td><td>-1.5 +155</td><td>-130</td><td>UNDER 9.5 +105</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>929</td><td>Tampa Bay Rays
J. Niemann</td><td>+1.5 -169</td><td>+126</td><td>OVER 8 +108</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>07:10 PM</td><td>930</td><td>Seattle Mariners
F. Hernandez</td><td>-1.5 +159</td><td>-134</td><td>UNDER 8 -118</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/7</td><td>1001</td><td>Red Sox @ Yankees & Braves @ Dodgers</td><td>Offline</td><td>Offline</td><td>Offline</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>1002</td><td>Will Be Dealt Live</td><td>Offline</td><td>Offline</td><td>Offline</td></tr></tbody></table>

Grabbed Rays +130 med/large - Felix has cooled off a lot from his great, hasn't had the same kind of movement. Rays huge edge on offense.

Marlins +140 - Ricky is one of hottest pitchers in the game. Nick Johnson at 2 spot was a great move and looking like it's paying off with the offensive production lately as a team.

Royals -124 Large - This is my favorite game, the league has figured out Mazzaro he is really struggling and getting hit hard and shows no signs of stopping. Royals got a amount of lefties that provide power.

Bannister has been very solid of late against good offensives, and eats up innings. I expect this line to go with Royals winnning, scoring a lot tonight, and Bannister recording a W at Tampa.

Odd makers have to respect Oakland's current form and bearish on Royals. Which makes this a bad line.

Looking at the Mets also at +124. This Padres team continues to be overvalued.

i love the under in that blanton/nolasco matchup...should be marlins win 4-2

royals swining bats well tonight, and a's overachieved getting 3/4 from rangers.....I will be on this with u on royals.....

that reds +270 vs lincecum seems like a decent place to take a shot...the reds can never be counted on, and u never know what ur gonna get.......1 reason why no one ever gets on board in spots like this....may put 1/4 unit on it

After scanning the board, KC stood out to me too - bannister solid all year, mazzaro's era is shooting up....... i hate to bet on a bad team but kc is defiently a play.

I expect tb / sea to be a low scoring game, but i dont see any reason to go against seattles ace at home..........

i will ml parlay sf w cws for an even money payback........

i would stay far away from flor, blanton is better than nolasco, philly's at home and their o should blow up soon...........

i hope u stayed away from the mets tonight......

gl

MikRetSam said:

After scanning the board, KC stood out to me too - bannister solid all year, mazzaro's era is shooting up....... i hate to bet on a bad team but kc is defiently a play.

I expect tb / sea to be a low scoring game, but i dont see any reason to go against seattles ace at home..........

i will ml parlay sf w cws for an even money payback........

i would stay far away from flor, blanton is better than nolasco, philly's at home and their o should blow up soon...........

i hope u stayed away from the mets tonight......

gl

Click to expand...

Yes. I am aware this might be a bad match-up spot to back Ricky i said in other thread i might sell them back.

I had the Mets, Livan flat out didn't have any of his stuff. Which can happen to any pitch any given game. Just because a game loses doesn't mean it wasn't the right play at the price. Example would have you said Pirates +120ish was a bad play yesterday? I missed up by not playing them even though they lost.

"I expect tb / sea to be a low scoring game, but i dont see any reason to go against seattles ace at home.........."

Rays are being undervalued do to the fact it's Felix on the mound, and for that main reason why, also he has cooled down like i said in the past games some of his pitches aren't haven't the same type of nasty movement when he was dealing. Sometimes you have to bet against great pitchers if there is an excess amount of value or shit ones for that matter. It's all about playing the %, finding value for the long run. I don't mind grinding out the season to make a nice amount of profit at the end of it. Good luck.

You can call me crazy, but Cardinals hold value at -238 coming from a guy who rarely bets -150 in chalk on the road.

check my thread for my plays
we are very similar today
good luck

Whoa. What is the market doing bumping down Cardinals now to -218.

TheHungerForMore said:

Whoa. What is the market doing bumping down Cardinals now to -218.

Click to expand...

Certainly makes sense to me. It is really hard to get a road favorite to justify such a price, and betting against Maholm at home just doesnt cut it. I think this line has some downward moblity from here.

The only line movement I am suprised about are the Cubs. Looks like the market is opening up value on them.

Lots of underdogs appear undervalued today.

buffettgambler said:

Certainly makes sense to me. It is really hard to get a road favorite to justify such a price, and betting against Maholm at home just doesnt cut it. I think this line has some downward moblity from here.

The only line movement I am suprised about are the Cubs. Looks like the market is opening up value on them.

Lots of underdogs appear undervalued today.

Click to expand...

I love the Mets +140 or more large. Probably small to win medium on Indians if it reaches +200. Maybe same with O's. If Bosox reaches +120 small/med.

TheHungerForMore said:

I love the Mets +140 or more large. Probably small to win medium on Indians if it reaches +200. Maybe same with O's. If Bosox reaches +120 small/med.

Click to expand...

Really like the Mets to. Will go large on them as well. I agree with the O's. The market opened up a spot to back them. I biggest play on the overnight was the Brewers. The market is starting to bring their price down.

Twins seem like one of the best plays to me

Twins is a solid play but they suck asas on the road. Gallaraga sucks dick too, but twins suck huge cock on the road. They lost to Cleveland yesterday for fuck's sake.
Not sure, small but a tough play.
I like Kansas City at home more, larger line, shittier team, but a better spot IMO

Hey buffett do you have anything on Balester? I never seen him pitch before and was wondering if he has good chance to keep these dbacks limited as i like the under price at +110 and see Garland doing his part.

TheHungerForMore said:

Hey buffett do you have anything on Balester? I never seen him pitch before and was wondering if he has good chance to keep these dbacks limited as i like the under price at +110 and see Garland doing his part.

Click to expand...

Not too big on him. Lacks an ideal arsenal of pitches and his minor league numbers and last years numbers show his inability to be effective the second time through the lineup. So far this year he has masked this deficiency, but am skeptical it lasts. Not something you want when back by the Nats bullpen.

Ty

TheHungerForMore said:

Whoa. What is the market doing bumping down Cardinals now to -218.

Click to expand...

I think the reason for the drop is the fact the Pirates have lost 5 in a row. They are not a bad home team. Also the Cards are hitting .227 off of leftys this year. While the Pirates are hitting .284 off of rightys at home. If the Pirates bullpen was any good I would back them big today.

Upgrade in the Nats price. Opening a small to medium- avg lay +101.