I so agree with you too. I've seen this a few times but Football is much more difficult to win at. You can cash in early in the season if you do your homework, but once the Vegas lines get sharp, you loose all value. Games are won by a 1/2 piont.
NOw Basketball...that's the sport to make money at!!! :lol:
JUST KIDDING!!!!
I would strongly disagree. IMO, football is much more predictable and, therefore, more profitable. College foots has always been my best sport because I think it's about as predictable as you can get.
There are so many things that happen on a nightly basis in baseball that you just can't cap. So for that reason, I either don't play it at all or only play it small. I do admit, however, that there are some profitable trends that you can cash in on in bases.
What's so hard about football? Everyone is talking about how hard it is, but the only thing anyone has mentioned is sharp lines. If you look at all the handicapping forums out there, the vast majority of the posters do better at football than they do bases. In fact, on a lot of the forums you are only left with a handful of posters posting in bases at the end of the year because most people get their arses kicked at it.
But to answer your post, most of my baseball bets are 5 innings. Starting pitching is one of the big things I look at when I bet, so I try to isolate the advantage by betting first 5 and not getting screwed by the bullpen.
But it's a lot more than just bullpens blowing leads. There are a lot of other factors that come in to play, one of the main ones being that teams just flat-out don't show up for a good portion of their games. Not saying I really blame them -- 162 games is a crazy schedule. But it's still frustrating nonetheless.
Good point. It should be easier to just pick a team to win, rather than needing them to cover a spread. But this is where I go back to saying how unpredictable bases is. Most of the games that look like they SHOULD be winners, end up being losers. And then you have to factor in juice on top of that. So IMO it's not as easy as people might make it out to be.
Then again, I'm sure a lot of it is that I just suck at bases.
We need to remember this thread in a few months. Once football starts kicking everyones ass because of all the crazy stuff that goes on during a game, this will be one to pull out and remind all the football fans that is is hard to cover.
And for capping football, I think it is harder. All the FG's that should have been TD's all the prevent defense, all the college kids if CFB that do stupid shit that make you scream at your tv...that's what you can't cap and what makes it harder, IMO to win at football.
And for capping football, I think it is harder. All the FG's that should have been TD's all the prevent defense, all the college kids if CFB that do stupid shit that make you scream at your tv...that's what you can't cap and what makes it harder, IMO to win at football.
Ha, wasn't everybody saying I can't wait till basketball season is over, or thank God baseball season is just around the corner. Now everybody is like can't wait till baseball is over and football starts.
Anyways, I'll be honest with you, last week has been very tough for me too for some reason. I had one 4-1 killer day won a good amount of cash but the rest sucked. Weird week indeed. Yes I was on Florida runline that time they coughed up a 8 run lead. Aside from that just been getting screwed for a week. Hopefully it's just a phase.
Anyways, I'll be honest with you, last week has been very tough for me too for some reason. I had one 4-1 killer day won a good amount of cash but the rest sucked. Weird week indeed. Yes I was on Florida runline that time they coughed up a 8 run lead. Aside from that just been getting screwed for a week. Hopefully it's just a phase.
Completely agree with everything. Football is so much more volatile, BBall is the most volatile, Bases is the least volatile. Sure you get the occasional bullpen blowup, but it's not nearly as frequent as say prevent defenses in Football giving up a meaningless TD to blow the cover at the end, or garbage fouls at the end of the bball game to fuck the cover up.
You're right about the prevent defense thing, but there's a simple way around that... just don't play big faves in football. Either small faves or dogs are the way to go, IMO.
I think there are ways to beat football, and it's not necessarily about crunching numbers. Too many people get caught up in stats and ignore some very powerful trends that play out year after year. Playing situations, as opposed to crunching numbers, has been very profitable for me.
I should add that I'm talking about college football here, not the NFL. In all honesty, I don't do great at the NFL. Decent, but not great. I focus most of my time and plays on college.
You also mentioned basketball... I'm the first to admit I'm HORRIBLE at the NBA. Couldn't win at the NBA to save my life. The majority of those guys are just collecting paychecks, so I can never tell who is going to give a good effort and who isn't. Anyone who does well at the NBA is a better man than me.
Just my .02...
