8/10 Overnight MLB Discussion

<table style="width: 100%;" border="0"><tbody><tr class="Column_Date_Headers_Odds"><td colspan="7">MLB Baseball - Mon 8/10

</td> </tr><tr class="Column_Headers_Odds"> <td colspan="3">Game</td><td>Run Line</td><td>Money Line</td><td>Total Runs</td><td>More</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 8/10</td><td>951</td><td>Houston Astros
B. Moehler</td><td>+1.5 -156</td><td>+135</td><td>OVER 9.5 +101</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:10 PM</td><td>952</td><td>Florida Marlins
R. VandenHurk</td><td>-1.5 +146</td><td>-143</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -111</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Mon 8/10</td><td>953</td><td>Cincinnati Reds
J. Cueto</td><td>+1.5 -140</td><td>+150</td><td>OVER 8.5 -115</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>05:15 PM</td><td>954</td><td>St Louis Cardinals
K. Lohse</td><td>-1.5 +130</td><td>-158</td><td>UNDER 8.5 +105</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 8/10</td><td>955</td><td>Chicago Cubs
T. Gorzelanny</td><td>+1.5 -176</td><td>+118</td><td>OVER 9.5 -105</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>05:40 PM</td><td>956</td><td>Colorado Rockies
J. De La Rosa</td><td>-1.5 +166</td><td>-126</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -105</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Mon 8/10</td><td>957</td><td>New York Mets
M. Pelfrey</td><td>+1.5 -145</td><td>+152</td><td>OVER 9 +100</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>06:40 PM</td><td>958</td><td>Arizona D-Backs
D. Davis</td><td>-1.5 +135</td><td>-160</td><td>UNDER 9 -110</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 8/10</td><td>959</td><td>Los Angeles Dodgers
H. Kuroda</td><td>-1.5 +147</td><td>-113</td><td>OVER 8.5 +106</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>07:15 PM</td><td>960</td><td>San Francisco Giants
J. Sanchez</td><td>+1.5 -157</td><td>+105</td><td>UNDER 8.5 -116</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Mon 8/10</td><td>961</td><td>Toronto Blue Jays
M. Rzepczynski</td><td>+1.5 -146</td><td>+136</td><td>OVER 10.5 +101</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>962</td><td>New York Yankees
S. Mitre</td><td>-1.5 +136</td><td>-144</td><td>UNDER 10.5 -111</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 8/10</td><td>963</td><td>Oakland Athletics
G. Gonzalez</td><td>+1.5 -170</td><td>+117</td><td>OVER 9.5 +100</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>964</td><td>Baltimore Orioles
J. Guthrie</td><td>-1.5 +160</td><td>-125</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -110</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Mon 8/10</td><td>965</td><td>Detroit Tigers
E. Jackson</td><td>-1.5 +145</td><td>-113</td><td>OVER 9.5 -104</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>04:10 PM</td><td>966</td><td>Boston Red Sox
B. Penny</td><td>+1.5 -155</td><td>+105</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -106</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 8/10</td><td>967</td><td>Tampa Bay Rays
M. Garza</td><td>-1.5 +142</td><td>-116</td><td>OVER 9.5 +105</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>07:05 PM</td><td>968</td><td>LAA Angels
S. O' Sullivan</td><td>+1.5 -152</td><td>+108</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -115</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Mon 8/10</td><td>969</td><td>Chicago White Sox
G. Floyd</td><td>-1.5 +136</td><td>-120</td><td>OVER 8.5 -105</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>07:10 PM</td><td>970</td><td>Seattle Mariners
L. French</td><td>+1.5 -146</td><td>+112</td><td>UNDER 8.5 -105</td></tr></tbody></table>

Red Sox +103 Large - Edwin Jackson and the Tigers are being overvalued a lot here. Besides his last outing i still believe EJ is regressing and this is a good match-up for his number to show aren't sustainable. He shows a terrible career at Fenway Park (0-4, 7.14 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, .342 BAA). Tigers underachieve on the road as can be seen in their H/A splits.

Mets +150 Large - What's with this line? is Doug Davis superior than Pelfrey? Home field worth that much? D-Backs current line up is horrible, one can argue that Mets have the better line up right now. Bullpen advantage goes to the Mets.

Grabbed the Yankees - 145 med. I am still looking and doing valuation on this card. I'm liking this card a lot of lines are off and worth med or large plays.

the mets line makes no sense...probably still favor dbax...but not by more than -125

Tommorrows card looks compelling. A few teams coming with some really nice value, such as, the Red Sox, Rays, White Sox and Dodgers. There are some other teams coming with decent value, such as, the Cubs, Yankees, Mets, and Orioles.

buffettgambler said:

Tommorrows card looks compelling. A few teams coming with some really nice value, such as, the Red Sox, Rays, White Sox and Dodgers. There are some other teams coming with decent value, such as, the Cubs, Yankees, Mets, and Orioles.

Click to expand...

Yep, like Dodgers probably at med their bullpen is beast and line up differences in this match-up. O's at first glance look like they warrant a small/med play. Market took a lot off the Cubs value, i wasn't able to take advantage. Have to look into White Sox and Rays some more.

buffettgambler said:

Tommorrows card looks compelling. A few teams coming with some really nice value, such as, the Red Sox, Rays, White Sox and Dodgers. There are some other teams coming with decent value, such as, the Cubs, Yankees, Mets, and Orioles.

Click to expand...

Lines of the Red Sox, White Sox, Dodgers and Rays are starting to move. If they do not move materially more before I get it my entire postion, these can be the 4 largest bets I have made in the last 7 days (unless buybacks are involved).

Whats to like about the Rays?

buffettgambler said:

Lines of the Red Sox, White Sox, Dodgers and Rays are starting to move. If they do not move materially more before I get it my entire postion, these can be the 4 largest bets I have made in the last 7 days (unless buybacks are involved).

Click to expand...

Already bought O's at -127 med and Dodgers -113 med/large

give me the cardinals, reds plain suck.

Cueto has literally been the worst pitcher in the last month or so in the majors.. Will he ever bounce back, he gets rocked every game lately?

gynecologist said:

Cueto has literally been the worst pitcher in the last month or so in the majors.. Will he ever bounce back, he gets rocked every game lately?

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This line caught me off guard a bit. The market has been very bearish on the Cueto, as if they are pricing in an injury. Although his numbers are not off the chart bad since that start in Philly, there are a few things pointing to a potential injury rather than a mechnical flaw, shot confidence, tipping pitches, a slump, or randomness- i.e. his fastball strike% has materialy dropped during the slump, his velocity is starting to sink, his change up stirke percentage is materially down, flyball rate up, and contact rate is up despite stirke rate being down. His arm may be shot.

The question is why have oddsmakers contually dismissed this while the market has made a statement with Cuetors lines. They have done so again on the overnight, and despite bumping Pinny's starting line 18 cents in a matter of a few hours, the market may not be done with this one.

I am interested to see where this one closes, and more importantly, if Cueto puts forth another bad start (and doesnt get shelfed), will oddsmakers be asleep at the wheel on the open in his start.

I was going to bet the Cards but for some reason I'm expecting Cueto to pitch very well, at least compared to Lohse. No reason. Just a gut feeling so I am staying away.

If the Reds will the first game I will pound one of the other games in the series.

From my inside sources, Cueto has been having financial troubles, so him pitching terrible is on purpose, and in my honest opinion he is the one moving the line on the Cardinals.

TheHungerForMore said:

From my inside sources, Cueto has been having financial troubles, so him pitching terrible is on purpose, and in my honest opinion he is the one moving the line on the Cardinals.

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Financial troubles??..well.. in order to get out of that problem is that He has to pitch like there is no tomorrow vs Stl so that He gets step closer to get incentive bonus on his contract..hmmmmmmmmmm..Cin is the bet today then!

gynecologist said:

Whats to like about the Rays?

Click to expand...

they are a great team. chasing the wild card very closely. garza is their best pitcher. +1 for rays.

Give me the Mets, Red Sox & O's!!!

Looking at the following:

Red Sox Even
Tampa -123
White Sox -122
Arizona -145 waiting it too close a little lower if possible..

Oakland @ Baltimore:

Tonight Baltimore throws Guthrie vs Gonzalez at home. Guthrie has been consistenly average against his competition and today's opponent is not much more than that. The team has had recent success vs Guthrie hitting well over 300 against him in one game. Guthrie was roughed up at Oakland, however this Oakland team is much different at the moment.

It's true to say that he'll give up anywere from 3-5 runs per game. The bullpen vs Oakland is much worse.

Gonzalez on the other hand as a lefty may be able to neutralize Markakis, Roberts, Huff and others. His numbers over the last three have been impressive.

18 and 2/3 innings pitched with 21 SO and 10 BBs allowing 10 Hits...Yet he's Plus 140 and rising on the road..With 60% of public on Baltimore. I also said ok who has this been done against.. TEXAS, BOSTON, and NY YANKEES...

For the price I do see some value taking the A's here to win game 1.

GEKKO

I like the marlins (-1.50) and the over 8.5 in the whitesox game, i lean to the giants as a home dog tonight.

GW