8/12 MLB Discussion

<table style="width: 100%;" border="0"><tbody><tr class="Column_Date_Headers_Odds"><td colspan="7">MLB Baseball - Wed 8/12

</td> </tr><tr class="Column_Headers_Odds"> <td colspan="3">Game</td><td>Run Line</td><td>Money Line</td><td>Total Runs</td><td>More</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Wed 8/12</td><td>951</td><td>New York Mets
OL. Perez</td><td>+1.5 -131</td><td>+158</td><td>OVER 9.5 -107</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>12:40 PM</td><td>952</td><td>Arizona D-Backs
J. Garland</td><td>-1.5 +121</td><td>-166</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -103</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Wed 8/12</td><td>955</td><td>Houston Astros
B. Norris</td><td>+1.5 -130</td><td>+166</td><td>OVER 8.5 -103</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>04:10 PM</td><td>956</td><td>Florida Marlins
R. Nolasco</td><td>-1.5 +120</td><td>-174</td><td>UNDER 8.5 -107</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Wed 8/12</td><td>957</td><td>Washington Nationals
C. Stammen</td><td>+1.5 -102</td><td>+212</td><td>OVER 8.5 -126</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:10 PM</td><td>958</td><td>Atlanta Braves
D. Lowe</td><td>-1.5 -108</td><td>-230</td><td>UNDER 8.5 +116</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Wed 8/12</td><td>959</td><td>Philadelphia Phillies
P. Martínez</td><td>
</td><td>-108</td><td>
</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>05:05 PM</td><td>960</td><td>Chicago Cubs
J. Samardzija</td><td>
</td><td>+100</td><td>
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Wed 8/12</td><td>961</td><td>San Diego Padres
K. Correia</td><td>+1.5 -157</td><td>+134</td><td>OVER 9 -106</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>05:05 PM</td><td>962</td><td>Milwaukee Brewers
C. Villanueva</td><td>-1.5 +147</td><td>-142</td><td>UNDER 9 -104</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Wed 8/12</td><td>963</td><td>Cincinnati Reds
H. Bailey</td><td>+1.5 +134</td><td>+295</td><td>OVER 8 +113</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>05:15 PM</td><td>964</td><td>St Louis Cardinals
C. Carpenter</td><td>-1.5 -144</td><td>-325</td><td>UNDER 8 -123</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Wed 8/12</td><td>965</td><td>Pittsburgh Pirates
K. Hart</td><td>+1.5 +110</td><td>+227</td><td>OVER 9.5 +113</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>05:40 PM</td><td>966</td><td>Colorado Rockies
U. Jimenez</td><td>-1.5 -120</td><td>-245</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -123</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Wed 8/12</td><td>967</td><td>Toronto Blue Jays
R. Romero</td><td>+1.5 +117</td><td>+225</td><td>OVER 9.5 +100</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>10:05 AM</td><td>968</td><td>New York Yankees
A. Burnett</td><td>-1.5 -127</td><td>-243</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -110</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Wed 8/12</td><td>969</td><td>Oakland Athletics
V. Mazzaro</td><td>+1.5 -150</td><td>+129</td><td>OVER 10 -123</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>10:35 AM</td><td>970</td><td>Baltimore Orioles
J. Berken</td><td>-1.5 +140</td><td>-137</td><td>UNDER 10 +113</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Wed 8/12</td><td>971</td><td>Tampa Bay Rays
J. Niemann</td><td>-1.5 +135</td><td>-119</td><td>OVER 10.5 +111</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>12:35 PM</td><td>972</td><td>LAA Angels
T. Bell</td><td>+1.5 -145</td><td>+111</td><td>UNDER 10.5 -121</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Wed 8/12</td><td>973</td><td>Texas Rangers
T. Hunter</td><td>-1.5 +135</td><td>-114</td><td>OVER 9.5 +121</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>974</td><td>Cleveland Indians
F. Carmona</td><td>+1.5 -145</td><td>+106</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -131</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Wed 8/12</td><td>975</td><td>Detroit Tigers
A. Galarraga</td><td>+1.5 -122</td><td>+212</td><td>OVER 9 -110</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>04:10 PM</td><td>976</td><td>Boston Red Sox
J. Beckett</td><td>-1.5 +112</td><td>-230</td><td>UNDER 9 +100</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Wed 8/12</td><td>977</td><td>Kansas City Royals
B. Bannister</td><td>+1.5 -117</td><td>+178</td><td>OVER 9 -116</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>05:10 PM</td><td>978</td><td>Minnesota Twins
F. Liriano</td><td>-1.5 +107</td><td>-186</td><td>UNDER 9 +106</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Wed 8/12</td><td>979</td><td>Chicago White Sox
M. Buehrle</td><td>+1.5 -174</td><td>+120</td><td>OVER 7.5 +110</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>07:10 PM</td><td>980</td><td>Seattle Mariners
F. Hernandez</td><td>-1.5 +164</td><td>-128</td><td>UNDER 7.5 -120</td></tr></tbody></table>

Not really feeling this card. I grabbed O's -133 and Marlins -155 med/large because i expected these lines to in my favor and beat my line.

Possible plays: Reds very small to win probably small/med, White Sox, i would like to see this line to go up, Maybe Blue Jays 1st 5 innings takes away takes away the 3rd look at Romero and the bullpen differences but the price has to be right.

Over 7.5 in M's/Sox may be worth a look at that price.

da_hustla said:

Over 7.5 in M's/Sox may be worth a look at that price.

Click to expand...

Not a lot of people take advantage of totals when they're at +110 or around that area, i do take them when i have a good feel and edge of the game. It's a real beaut.

Think there is good value in the Rays at -115 ML, if anyone has any insight on this call-up LA is throwing that'd be useful.
Rays can't really afford to get swept out of LA

So far on today's card I like:

Arizona -166, possibly RL depending on who NYM sticks in the line-up
Houston +166
Philadelphia -120
Colorado -1.5
Tor/NY Under 9.5, Possibly might take the +1.5 with Romero, should be a solid pitchers dual
Tampa Bay -115
Texas -120, probably under 9.5 also
Boston -1.5 +112
Kansas City +170

When the price comes out on LAD/SF probably going with Lincecum, should be a pretty decent line hopefully. Also might look into St. Louis some more depending if I wanna gamble on the RL or not. Seattle/ChiSox game is very difficult to cap imo, but the over has a great price considering how Buehrle has been throwin, and I lean toward Sea ML but the price blows.

In my opinion Arizona is the worst favorite to back they just aren't worth the price. The line up is just as pitiful as the Mets, due to poor pitching in this series has made Diamondbacks look better than they really are.

Oliver Perez found his stride and command last start, everything was nasty, hitting his spot right on point, fooling hitters, looked scary. Gaining confidence for a pitcher like him is huge. Bullpen advantage goes to the Mets. Odd makers are well-known to Mets slump, and bettors are paying for it in the inflated line.

TheHungerForMore said:

In my opinion Arizona is the worst favorite to back they just aren't worth the price. The line up is just as pitiful as the Mets, due to poor pitching in this series has made Diamondbacks look better than they really are.

Oliver Perez found his stride and command last start, everything was nasty, hitting his spot right on point, fooling hitters, looked scary. Gaining confidence for a pitcher like him is huge. Bullpen advantage goes to the Mets. Odd makers are well-known to Mets slump, and bettors are paying for it in the inflated line.

Click to expand...

You do realize how hot Zona's bats have been for 2+ weeks right? Zona has been playing like a different team the last month or so..

Perez walks way too many batters, he's on the road against a hot lineup. Garland isn't the greatest but he's at least consistent.

ZONA looks like a decent play tomorrow..

dont you think the braves and yanks are inflated?

gynecologist said:

You do realize how hot Zona's bats have been for 2+ weeks right? Zona has been playing like a different team the last month or so..

Perez walks way too many batters, he's on the road against a hot lineup. Garland isn't the greatest but he's at least consistent.

ZONA looks like a decent play tomorrow..

Click to expand...

A lot of smoke and mirrors considering the level of competition and pitchers they have faced. Any team that gets dominated by pitchers like Mock and J.D. Martin proves my point. Yes, Oliver walks a lot he also can pitch himself out of those jams, but looked very sharp last start now going to face a weak line up that isn't patient. Of course they look like a decent play, that's why they are -170. You gotta calculate and valuate the line. What your line? Do you know what % of times Diamondbacks have to win at this price?

I understand though you are a win now mentality picker that doesn't try to excel his skills. Good luck.

gynecologist said:

dont you think the braves and yanks are inflated?

Click to expand...

I wanna see what's the line for 1st 5 ML or +0.5. I do not trust Blue Jays bullpen. Yankees probably feel like they can cruise and take over anytime late against this team.

Nats line looks attractive, but i think i don't like how they match-up in this game.

Blow Jays +190 1st 5 innings before they see Romero the third time in the line and the bullpen blows up.

small to win med

Whats the play in the afternoon games?

...Thinking about Os OVER 10.5....

Any thoughts?

mp5070 said:

...Thinking about Os OVER 10.5....

Any thoughts?

Click to expand...

I would wait before the line ups are released. Matt Wieters didn't player yesterday, he's a big bat over the catcher that was his replacement. Also if you have a matchbook account get the it at even money. I don't like paying vig for totals, when i do either i really like it or think it will move up a run or half.

after not before.

On the Yankees large. Will be back later with further analysis.

Risking small/medium on the Orioles.

BG, are you giving analysis on the Yankees?