afternoon fellas, got another 6 plays that i really like today..
all for 1 unit
METS ML (cant pass up the odds on Johan at home.. mets win)
CWS ML (floyds got nasty shit)
HALOS ML (there playing the orioles.. they SHOULD win)
ROCKIES ML (rockies will take at least one, i think they get it done today)
RANGERS ML (should've won last night, ill begin chasing them)
PHILS ML (some say trap, i say price too good to pass on hamels - these guys just keep finding ways to win)
Not sure when you placed your bets or at what price, but if you got in early, you appear to be in good shape, as the market is agreeing with most of your plays.
Unless anything material comes out with the lineup card, the Giants/Mets game appears to be fairly valued to me (the no-vig Giants price appears slighly undervalued). The market was starting to catch up with Cain's worth, but after his last start, they may have backed off once again. In my opinion, it is hard to find value betting agaisnt him.
Yes, the Halos should win, but "should" does not neccessarily represent an EV bet. Do they have a greater than 59.1% chance of winning is the question.
The Rockies/Marlins series is an interesting series between two upward trending teams that the market is starting to heavily back. This game it appears their bullish sentiment weighs more on the Marlins, and I am not sure why. They may be jumping the gun on Vandenhurk. Cook has pitched well, can avoid the front end of the Rockies bullpen and is backed by a solid lineup. Small/medium value on the Rockies in my opinion.
The market has been very fickle with Holland this year. When he is coming off a solid start, they will inlfate his worth, and coming off a bad start, they will inflate his opponent. I have not seen enough prolonged cyclicality from him to not deem such an approach backward looking. The Red Sox were overvalued yesterday, and fairly valued today, leading me to believe Holland is being overpriced (along with Penny being underpriced).
Hammels seems fairly priced to me. His underperformance has now lasted long enough to materially downgrade his "true" productivity. He has consitently been unable to have both his fastball and changeup effective in starts. Its typically one or the other. Not good when facing a lineup familiar with him.
