Betting both sides of a RL

letsgohoosiers

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• Aug 16, 2009

• #1

I'm wondering if anyone has experience doing this.

You look everyday when a game is close to pick'em. Then you shop for lines and both sides of the game, getting -1.5 on each team. This gives you plus money on each team. You win as long as the margin of victory isn't 1.

Looking at HOU-MIL today, you can get +206 on MIL -1.5 at Matchbook and +150 on HOU -1.5 at Sportbet. As long as the margin is 2 or greater, you bank $156.

Historically, only 27.6% of games end in a 1 run margin, and your odds are much better (-126). I would imagine however that the 1 run margin frequency is higher for the games that are closer to pick'em.

I know some books offer alternative run lines, anyone have a list of who does so I can check them out?

 

roc18

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• #2

That sounds way too easy.

 

dopenose420

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• #3

If it would work, everyone would be doing it...

 

stuckforever

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• #4

wouldnt you win 50 (if hous covers) or 106 (if milw covers) and lose 200 in a 1 run game?

 

NickelsAndDimes

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• #5

letsgohoosiers said:

I'm wondering if anyone has experience doing this.

You look everyday when a game is close to pick'em. Then you shop for lines and both sides of the game, getting -1.5 on each team. This gives you plus money on each team. You win as long as the margin of victory isn't 1.

Looking at HOU-MIL today, you can get +206 on MIL -1.5 at Matchbook and +150 on HOU -1.5 at Sportbet. As long as the margin is 2 or greater, you bank $156.

Historically, only 27.6% of games end in a 1 run margin, and your odds are much better (-126). I would imagine however that the 1 run margin frequency is higher for the games that are closer to pick'em.

I know some books offer alternative run lines, anyone have a list of who does so I can check them out?

Click to expand...

how do you bank 156$ ? if you bet 100$ on each...100/206 and 100/156 your gona go +206 and -100 for +106 or +156 and -100 for +56 you will win either 106 or 56. and if the game ends with a team winning by 1 you lose 200$ ...so your risking 200$ to win 106 or 56....doesnt seem worth it...

 

NickelsAndDimes

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i would only do this kinda thing on games where both teams are like -110 or -120 and +100 cause both -1.5 will be +190ish...then it might be worth it for fun...

 

letsgohoosiers

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• #7

Nickels And Dimes said:

how do you bank 156$ ? if you bet 100$ on each...100/206 and 100/156 your gona go +206 and -100 for +106 or +156 and -100 for +56 you will win either 106 or 56. and if the game ends with a team winning by 1 you lose 200$ ...so your risking 200$ to win 106 or 56....doesnt seem worth it...

Click to expand...

You're right, math was wrong.

You'd have to bet so the payouts were equivalent.

Let me run the math again.

$48.54 on MIL to win $100 at +206
$66.67 on HOU to win $100 at +150

Total bet: $115.21 to win $100 (-115.21) on a non-1 run margin

 

roc18

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You made a similar thread http://therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=687968 and it ended up getting laughed at.

 

jcheckers

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• #9

Play the Fav ML and the Dog +1' RL, If the Fav wins by 1 run you
Middle both bets! :thumbsup:

 

KingofNicotine

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• #10

I don't know if most books allow that.

 

letsgohoosiers

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• #11

BetJamaica offers reverse RLs The game tonight is PHI-ATL.

PHI -1.5 is +175 (Risk 57.14 to win 100)
ATL -1.5 is +170 (Risk 58.82 to win 100)

Overall bet: Risk 115.96 to win 100 on Margin of victory >1

 

kidman232

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• #12

letsgohoosiers said:

You're right, math was wrong.

You'd have to bet so the payouts were equivalent.

Let me run the math again.

$48.54 on MIL to win $100 at +206
$66.67 on HOU to win $100 at +150

Total bet: $115.21 to win $100 (-115.21) on a non-1 run margin

Click to expand...

pretty sure ur math is off again, as it couldnt be -115 as your really not betting to win 10, bc 1 of ur bets is a loss as soon as the game starts.

your really betting 115 to win win 51.56 or 33.33.

 

jcheckers

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• #13

KingofNicotine said:

I don't know if most books allow that.

Click to expand...

My book won't let me parlay both, but will let me make
two seperate bets.

 

letsgohoosiers

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• #14

List of books that offer alternative RL (for future reference):

Matchbook <---- won't get limited
5Dimes
BetJamaica
Pinnacle
TheGreek
Bookmaker
Diamond
BetUS

 

kidman232

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• #15

sportsbook.com does also

 

letsgohoosiers

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• #16

kidman232 said:

pretty sure ur math is off again, as it couldnt be -115 as your really not betting to win 10, bc 1 of ur bets is a loss as soon as the game starts.

your really betting 115 to win win 51.56 or 33.33.

Click to expand...

You are right!

If MIL wins, the HOU bet is a loser (-$66.67) but you win $100 on MIL. Net 33.33.
If HOU wins, the MIL bet is a lower (-$48.54) but you win $100 on HOU. Net 51.46.
If the game is a 1 run margin, both bets are losers (-$115.21).

Of course you would want to structure the best so you end up even regardless of who win.

That makes it a 115.21 to win 42.40. That's a -271.72 spread. You have to win at 73% to beat that number. Because the 1 run frequency is roughly 27%, the odds are right where they should be.