8/17 MLB Discussion

TheHungerForMore · Aug 17, 2009

<table style="width: 100%;" border="0"><tbody><tr class="Column_Date_Headers_Odds"><td colspan="7">MLB Baseball - Mon 8/17

</td> </tr><tr class="Column_Headers_Odds"> <td colspan="3">Game</td><td>Run Line</td><td>Money Line</td><td>Total Runs</td><td>More</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 8/17</td><td>901</td><td>Arizona D-Backs
M. Scherzer</td><td>+1.5 -143</td><td>+154</td><td>OVER 7.5 -103</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>01:05 PM</td><td>902</td><td>Atlanta Braves
T. Hanson</td><td>-1.5 +133</td><td>-162</td><td>UNDER 7.5 -107</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Mon 8/17</td><td>903</td><td>Milwaukee Brewers
C. Villanueva</td><td>-1.5 +135</td><td>-121</td><td>OVER 9 -103</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>904</td><td>Pittsburgh Pirates
K. Hart</td><td>+1.5 -145</td><td>+113</td><td>UNDER 9 -107</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 8/17</td><td>905</td><td>San Francisco Giants
J. Martinez</td><td>-1.5 +150</td><td>-109</td><td>OVER 9 +100</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:10 PM</td><td>906</td><td>New York Mets
L. Hernandez</td><td>+1.5 -160</td><td>+101</td><td>UNDER 9 -110</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Mon 8/17</td><td>909</td><td>St Louis Cardinals
C. Carpenter</td><td>-1.5 +105</td><td>-156</td><td>OVER 7.5 -116</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>07:10 PM</td><td>910</td><td>Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Haeger</td><td>+1.5 -115</td><td>+148</td><td>UNDER 7.5 +106</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 8/17</td><td>911</td><td>LAA Angels
E. Santana</td><td>+1.5 -206</td><td>-109</td><td>OVER 10 -115</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>912</td><td>Baltimore Orioles
D. Hernandez</td><td>-1.5 +186</td><td>+101</td><td>UNDER 10 +105</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Mon 8/17</td><td>913</td><td>Minnesota Twins
F. Liriano</td><td>+1.5 -165</td><td>+123</td><td>OVER 9 +105</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>05:05 PM</td><td>914</td><td>Texas Rangers
T. Hunter</td><td>-1.5 +155</td><td>-131</td><td>UNDER 9 -115</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 8/17</td><td>915</td><td>Kansas City Royals
B. Bannister</td><td>+1.5 -104</td><td>+207</td><td>OVER 9 +110</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>05:10 PM</td><td>916</td><td>Chicago White Sox
M. Buehrle</td><td>-1.5 -106</td><td>-225</td><td>UNDER 9 -120</td></tr></tbody></table>

TheHungerForMore · Aug 17, 2009

RHP Charlie Haeger has won three straight starts, two of which were complete games...the knuckleballer fanned 25 and had a 1.13 ERA (3 ER/24.0 IP) in that span...the 25-year-old leads the Pacific Coast League with 11 wins in 21 starts and ranks ninth in the league with a 3.58 ERA.

BG, if you have any opinions/advice on Dodgers please share them,

All of sudden Ervin Santana has one good outing at home against a Rays team that wasn't kind of slumping at the time and the market jumps all of him? And what happen yesterday seems like a big overreaction. O's bring some value to the table if they continue to get bid up.

Had a large play on the Yankees until the pitching change.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 17, 2009

I was surprised to see odd makers put out a weak line in Min/Tex game. Maybe because they're bearish on Hunter or Liriano's past success against the Rangers.

midman2161 · Aug 17, 2009

Rangers look real solid with Tommy Hunter on the mound

TheHungerForMore · Aug 17, 2009

midman2161 said:
Rangers look real solid with Tommy Hunter on the mound

o9.5 +123 for me. Still trying to decide on the side.

buffettgambler · Aug 17, 2009

The lines look really tight today, and the market seems to agree, as the only material line movement has taken place in the Angels game.

Hunger,
No suprise that there is going to be a wide variety of opinion on the valuation of the Rangers/Twins game. This is in large part because of the difficulty of quantifying Hunters worth. I am in the camp of the Twins having small value at the current market price. Looking at this game on the surface, and it appears that the Rangers have the superior starter, the slighly better bullpen, the better lineup, and homefield advantage. But sustainability of a some of these facets (Hunters solid current form, Lirianos current bad form, and the current form of the Rangers bullpen) is what is keeping the line down and the markets expectations in line with oddsmakers.
I have been bearsish on Hunter for some time now (and have paid the price). I have upgraded his intrinsic worth, but still skeptical that he will finish out the year anywhere near the level he is currently pitching. Looking at his surface stats, and he still hasn't shown any signs of regression. Digging deeper, and you will see his current performance lacks sustainability. Firstly, he is not overpowering. He is a flyball pitcher (pitching in a bandbox) whose home run per fly ball is abnormally low. His BABIP is low and certainly not commensurate to his well hit ball ratio which should suggest more hits allowed. He has a higher strand rate than he did in the minors, which is no surpise to see such a high disparity in his ERA and FIP. I am not sure when his regression will start, but a lot of derivative stats suggest he is a time bomb. I will prefer to either be on the sidelines or against it, and the market is starting to think the same way.

I think the Dodgers/ Cardinals line is efficiently set with the obvious wild card being Haeger. Knuckleball pitchers are more dependent on whether the knuckler is working on a particular day than the fundamental match up against the opposing lineup. It seems to be working well for him in recent AAA starts, but still is a work in progress. Torre will have no problem getting him out early, so damage control will be agressive.

No large plays for me as of now. Upper middle play on the Cubs.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 17, 2009

buffettgambler said:
The lines look really tight today, and the market seems to agree, as the only material line movement has taken place in the Angels game.

Hunger,
No suprise that there is going to be a wide variety of opinion on the valuation of the Rangers/Twins game. This is in large part because of the difficulty of quantifying Hunters worth. I am in the camp of the Twins having small value at the current market price. Looking at this game on the surface, and it appears that the Rangers have the superior starter, the slighly better bullpen, the better lineup, and homefield advantage. But sustainability of a some of these facets (Hunters solid current form, Lirianos current bad form, and the current form of the Rangers bullpen) is what is keeping the line down and the markets expectations in line with oddsmakers.
I have been bearsish on Hunter for some time now (and have paid the price). I have upgraded his intrinsic worth, but still skeptical that he will finish out the year anywhere near the level he is currently pitching. Looking at his surface stats, and he still hasn't shown any signs of regression. Digging deeper, and you will see his current performance lacks sustainability. Firstly, he is not overpowering. He is a flyball pitcher (pitching in a bandbox) whose home run per fly ball is abnormally low. His BABIP is low and certainly not commensurate to his well hit ball ratio which should suggest more hits allowed. He has a higher strand rate than he did in the minors, which is no surpise to see such a high disparity in his ERA and FIP. I am not sure when his regression will start, but a lot of derivative stats suggest he is a time bomb. I will prefer to either be on the sidelines or against it, and the market is starting to think the same way.

I think the Dodgers/ Cardinals line is efficiently set with the obvious wild card being Haeger. Knuckleball pitchers are more dependent on whether the knuckler is working on a particular day than the fundamental match up against the opposing lineup. It seems to be working well for him in recent AAA starts, but still is a work in progress. Torre will have no problem getting him out early, so damage control will be agressive.

No large plays for me as of now. Upper middle play on the Cubs.

Thanks once again for the productive reply.

That's what threw me off with the Texas line, like they already set the line anticipating Hunter's regression. If the line hits +135 then i will make a play on the Twins.

Obviously the Angels have the better line up. Both bullpens are shot. But i give O's a little advantage in the starting pitching. +110 will be right in my wheel house to back the solid home dog.

I am holding onto Dodgers +150 ticket, it's not often you get them as a sizable home dog. Giving myself a option to either hedge out or keep them.

For a few days we haven't seen much of attractive dogs in the +145 range or up. Does this usually happen late into the season?

buffettgambler · Aug 17, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
For a few days we haven't seen much of attractive dogs in the +145 range or up. Does this usually happen late into the season?

Usually the contrary occurs, but it doesnt start kicking in until a month left in the season.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 17, 2009

What does anyone think of Angels/O's under 10 +114? It seems we'll getting a total where it should be set at 10, but the outburst of yesterday's game has created a overreaction to the line. Instead of laying vig we're getting 14 cent.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 17, 2009

Wow. It just moved to an average of +118.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 17, 2009

I'm going to play Ari +159 small.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 17, 2009

Actually bumping it to a small/medium size.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 17, 2009

My valuation on Hanson is bearish and i am not sold on him with the prices odd makers hand him at times. I don't like what I've seen out of him verses left handed batters (.287 BAA, 22BB 29K). Which D-Backs have six in the line ups with one switch hitter as well. With the late night delay yesterday and afternoon start today, along with McCann and McLouth taking the day off makes Atlanta overvalued in this spot.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 17, 2009

Thanks for being an asshole Scherzer, throwing an error to third base for no reason and not taking the free out which then led to disaster.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 17, 2009

BG, what's your lines on O's and Twins?

buffettgambler · Aug 17, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
What does anyone think of Angels/O's under 10 +114? It seems we'll getting a total where it should be set at 10, but the outburst of yesterday's game has created a overreaction to the line. Instead of laying vig we're getting 14 cent.

Just downgraded the Angels intrinsic worth. Opened up a medium position on the Orioles. No opinion on the total.

buffettgambler · Aug 17, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
BG, what's your lines on O's and Twins?

Orioles -105
Twins +113 (subject to change on lineup information).

TheHungerForMore · Aug 17, 2009

buffettgambler said:
Orioles -105
Twins +113 (subject to change on lineup information).

O's +115 is a medium play for me.

Twins may become a med/large if they hit +140, medium at +135.

nick23 · Aug 17, 2009

Buffet what are ur plays tonight? The yanks look like free money..Tomko hasnt been stretched out in 3 yrs and Yanks had him earlier this yr and know he is a gas can

buffettgambler · Aug 17, 2009

nick23 said:
Buffet what are ur plays tonight? The yanks look like free money..Tomko hasnt been stretched out in 3 yrs and Yanks had him earlier this yr and know he is a gas can

Upper Medium:
Cubs overnight

Medium
Orioles

Small
Twins (may bump this to a medium)
Brewers

I currently have the Yankees valued at -193, so I think the line is efficiently set. It would be rare for the market to leave excess value on the table on the Yankees with the way they have been playing of late up against Tomko. The market bid the line up off the open and let it settle at the no-vig of -191. The later bid it down, and quickly bid it back up to an intraday high. This type of movement leads me to believe we should see another bid down before the close.