8-20

GordonGekko · Aug 19, 2009

Today's Action:

Philadelphia -162

I've been really impressed how Cliff Lee has handled himself in the NL. He's hitting spots on all pitches and facing a team that hasn't hit lefties too well, it may be another difficult night for them. Obviously Haren bounced back from his previous three outings however one of those 4-5 ER outing was vs the Phillies. Lee's starts in NL 24 IP 16 Hits 3 ER 23 SO. I have no problem laying some chalk down today with a pitcher who is on his game right now.

Minnesota +122

Two pitchers who seem to be going the wrong way. Baker's starting to pitch good and has done so over last 7 while Millwood is showing true regression. He's always giving up more hits than innings and look for more tough outings down the stretch.

Chicago White Sox +124

buffettgambler · Aug 19, 2009

Nice write-ups GG.

Lots of small and medium plays on the overnight for me, but nothing terribly undervalued.

Medium plays on the overnight:
Reds -109
Braves -167
Mariners +265
White Sox +124
Yankees -124

TheHungerForMore · Aug 19, 2009

Why do you like the White Sox?

I know Greinke has been overvalued numerous of times because of being respected by his first quarter performance, also due to the bullpen and line up is he backed by. In my opinion one of the very few times he is being undervalued, with the way Royals have been swinging the bat.

Jose Contreras struggles doesn't seem to be factored into the line.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 19, 2009

buffettgambler said:
Nice write-ups GG.

Lots of small and medium plays on the overnight for me, but nothing terribly undervalued.

Medium plays on the overnight:
Reds -109
Braves -167
Mariners +265
White Sox +124
Yankees -124

Sea was a medium play to sell some of the position back for a profit? Just wondering. I got them small to win medium.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 19, 2009

Market is moving the Bos/Tor line the wrong way. Bos has been downgraded today with Tor working Papelbon and him showing struggles to get them out, he's unlikely throw for them tonight if needed.

GordonGekko · Aug 19, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
Why do you like the White Sox?

I know Greinke has been overvalued numerous of times because of being respected by his first quarter performance, also due to the bullpen and line up is he backed by. In my opinion one of the very few times he is being undervalued, with the way Royals have been swinging the bat.

Jose Contreras struggles doesn't seem to be factored into the line.

Hunger,

Everything you've said is 100% correct! The one item I see is Contreras pitching well at home during the day and the market kind of agreeing with me holding the line. Yes should the line be 140 plus, probably. Contreras hasn't been seen too many times with this young team and can cause problems in a ball park that should be humid and possibly higher scoring than usual. The umpire behind the plate owns a 15-9 Home/Away win loss record while Greinke has had some difficulty with middle of the order guys as in..Dye and AJ.

Looking at a small/medium play on this one.

jmp · Aug 19, 2009

Change your title because it looks like your record and not the actual date, 8-19.

GordonGekko · Aug 19, 2009

jmp said:
Change your title because it looks like your record and not the actual date, 8-19.

Good read. How do you change title thread to 8-19?

buffettgambler · Aug 19, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
Why do you like the White Sox?

I know Greinke has been overvalued numerous of times because of being respected by his first quarter performance, also due to the bullpen and line up is he backed by. In my opinion one of the very few times he is being undervalued, with the way Royals have been swinging the bat.

Jose Contreras struggles doesn't seem to be factored into the line.

Good question. I don't think this is a Grienke issue. I think it is the other facets that are creating value on the White Sox. Over the last few starts, I have noticed a convergence between my fair value and the market price on Grienke- that is he was going from constantly overvalued to slighly overvalued or fairly valued.

Putting things in perspective, what we have here is the team with the worst record in the American League on the road up against a team in the thick of a divisional race being favored by a sizeable margin. You have to ask yourself why. Yes, Grienke is a solid pitcher, but a pitcher that has clearly regressed, posting a four plus ERA in two of the last three months. The Royals are not hot, or on an upward trend, going 18-40 in their last 58 games. Based recent series against the A's and Mariners and the White Sox providing value throughout, it appears this is a White Sox issue. The market apparently doesn't think highly of them, jumping off their bandwagon during their recent mediocre run. However, this is a team who has had to play 18 of their last 30 games against teams with a winning record (Tigers, Angels, Rays, Mariners, and Yankees). The White Sox materially upgraded their lineup with the addition of Rios, and Quentin appears to be coming into his own. The young bats have provided a nice supplementary role to this team. In my opinion, the market is wrongly bearish on the White Sox.

I know the market does not like Contreras right now, and for good reason. He hasn't been able to make it past five in any of his last three starts, and has been horrific since the break. However, this is a good fundamental matchup for him to get things back on track, as his crafty style bodes well against young lineups. In his last 5 starts in which witnessed a serious downtick, he has allowed just one home run, his well hit ball ratio is not overly concerning, nor is his strike rate or lack of drop in velocity. This appears to be a rut that should only be short term in nature, and a good spot where the market may over exaggerated their bearishness on him.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 19, 2009

Gordon Gekko said:
Hunger,

Everything you've said is 100% correct! The one item I see is Contreras pitching well at home during the day and the market kind of agreeing with me holding the line. Yes should the line be 140 plus, probably. Contreras hasn't been seen too many times with this young team and can cause problems in a ball park that should be humid and possibly higher scoring than usual. The umpire behind the plate owns a 15-9 Home/Away win loss record while Greinke has had some difficulty with middle of the order guys as in..Dye and AJ.

Looking at a small/medium play on this one.

Where did you find his day game spilts at home?

TheHungerForMore · Aug 19, 2009

buffettgambler said:
Good question. I don't think this is a Grienke issue. I think it is the other facets that are creating value on the White Sox. Over the last few starts, I have noticed a convergence between my fair value and the market price on Grienke- that is he was going from constantly overvalued to slighly overvalued or fairly valued.

Putting things in perspective, what we have here is the team with the worst record in the American League on the road up against a team in the thick of a divisional race being favored by a sizeable margin. You have to ask yourself why. Yes, Grienke is a solid pitcher, but a pitcher that has clearly regressed, posting a four plus ERA in two of the last three months. The Royals are not hot, or on an upward trend, going 18-40 in their last 58 games. Based recent series against the A's and Mariners and the White Sox providing value throughout, it appears this is a White Sox issue. The market apparently doesn't think highly of them, jumping off their bandwagon during their recent mediocre run. However, this is a team who has had to play 18 of their last 30 games against teams with a winning record (Tigers, Angels, Rays, Mariners, and Yankees). The White Sox materially upgraded their lineup with the addition of Rios, and Quentin appears to be coming into his own. The young bats have provided a nice supplementary role to this team. In my opinion, the market is wrongly bearish on the White Sox.

I know the market does not like Contreras right now, and for good reason. He hasn't been able to make it past five in any of his last three starts, and has been horrific since the break. However, this is a good fundamental matchup for him to get things back on track, as his crafty style bodes well against young lineups. In his last 5 starts in which witnessed a serious downtick, he has allowed just one home run, his well hit ball ratio is not overly concerning, nor is his strike rate or lack of drop in velocity. This appears to be a rut that should only be short term in nature, and a good spot where the market may over exaggerated their bearishness on him.

Thanks. This was kind of my thinking/reasoning of backing Rick Porcello and the Tigers yesterday. He was kind of having tough luck, but the stats where there ground balls, low walks, three straight games with no HRs given up and such.

I upgraded my worth on Felix, i think he back into prime form. I don't know what the manager was thinking not sending him back in for the 8th.

at that gas can Tajada shutting down the White Sox for three innings straight.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 19, 2009

Anyways ya'll sold me on Cws +120.

GordonGekko · Aug 19, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
Where did you find his day game spilts at home?

I cross reference the White Sox schedule with his posted starts. His numbers have been bad of late but will see if it pans out today. The site I use mostly is baseball-reference.com along with numerous other places.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 19, 2009

:toast: to Gordon and BG for excellent analysis on White Sox.

What's yall opinions on Bos/Tor?

GordonGekko · Aug 19, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
:toast: to Gordon and BG for excellent analysis on White Sox.

What's yall opinions on Bos/Tor?

I'm looking at lineup information at the moment. Boston will be without Pedroia, Lowell, Varitek possibly but I heard he's playing. No Martinez then in the lineup. Kotchman is playing first tonight. Downgrade right there.

buffettgambler · Aug 19, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
:toast: to Gordon and BG for excellent analysis on White Sox.

What's yall opinions on Bos/Tor?

Entered a small position on the Sox on the overnight. Market has appeared to correct the price. Will buy back a large portion prior to game time. Line seems fairly set now.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 19, 2009

Right now i've got

Medium:
Braves -165
Yankees -120
Phillies -154

Small:
Mariners avg of +268 upgraded them

Looking to play Tor -144 depending on the lineups

Dogs: I'm waiting to see line up releases on are Padres and Indians.

GordonGekko · Aug 19, 2009

TheHungerForMore said:
Right now i've got

Medium:
Braves -165
Yankees -120
Phillies -154

Small:
Mariners avg of +268 upgraded them

Looking to play Tor -144 depending on the lineups

Dogs: I'm waiting to see line up releases on are Padres and Indians.

Good Luck on your plays

TheHungerForMore · Aug 19, 2009

Gordon Gekko said:
Good Luck on your plays

Bad luck on yours.

TheHungerForMore · Aug 19, 2009

Tor -144 small

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