8/21 Overnight MLB Discussion

<table style="width: 100%;" border="0"><tbody><tr class="Column_Date_Headers_Odds"><td colspan="7">MLB Baseball - Fri 8/21

</td> </tr><tr class="Column_Headers_Odds"> <td colspan="3">Game</td><td>Run Line</td><td>Money Line</td><td>Total Runs</td><td>More</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/21</td><td>901</td><td>Cincinnati Reds
M. Owings</td><td>+1.5 -177</td><td>+118</td><td>OVER 9 +113</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>902</td><td>Pittsburgh Pirates
C. Morton</td><td>-1.5 +167</td><td>-126</td><td>UNDER 9 -123</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/21</td><td>903</td><td>Milwaukee Brewers
B. Looper</td><td>-1.5 +131</td><td>-128</td><td>OVER 9.5 +100</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>904</td><td>Washington Nationals
J. Martin</td><td>+1.5 -141</td><td>+120</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -110</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/21</td><td>905</td><td>Philadelphia Phillies
C. Hamels</td><td>-1.5 +100</td><td>-167</td><td>OVER 8.5 +110</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:10 PM</td><td>906</td><td>New York Mets
M. Pelfrey</td><td>+1.5 -110</td><td>+159</td><td>UNDER 8.5 -120</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/21</td><td>909</td><td>Arizona D-Backs
Y. Petit</td><td>+1.5 -121</td><td>+180</td><td>OVER 8.5 +100</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>05:05 PM</td><td>910</td><td>Houston Astros
R. Oswalt</td><td>-1.5 +111</td><td>-191</td><td>UNDER 8.5 -110</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/21</td><td>911</td><td>San Francisco Giants
J. Sanchez</td><td>+1.5 -132</td><td>+156</td><td>OVER 9.5 +113</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>06:10 PM</td><td>912</td><td>Colorado Rockies
A. Cook</td><td>-1.5 +122</td><td>-164</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -123</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/21</td><td>913</td><td>St Louis Cardinals
K. Lohse</td><td>-1.5 +112</td><td>-143</td><td>OVER 8 -105</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>07:05 PM</td><td>914</td><td>San Diego Padres
C. Richard</td><td>+1.5 -122</td><td>+135</td><td>UNDER 8 -105</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/21</td><td>915</td><td>Chicago Cubs
R. Wells</td><td>+1.5 -155</td><td>+134</td><td>OVER 8 -105</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>07:10 PM</td><td>916</td><td>Los Angeles Dodgers
R. Wolf</td><td>-1.5 +145</td><td>-142</td><td>UNDER 8 -105</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/21</td><td>917</td><td>Seattle Mariners
L. French</td><td>+1.5 -196</td><td>+104</td><td>OVER 9.5 +100</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>918</td><td>Cleveland Indians
D. Huff</td><td>-1.5 +181</td><td>-112</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -110</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/21</td><td>919</td><td>LAA Angels
S. O' Sullivan</td><td>+1.5 -191</td><td>+107</td><td>OVER 10 +103</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>920</td><td>Toronto Blue Jays
M. Rzepczynski</td><td>-1.5 +178</td><td>-115</td><td>UNDER 10 -113</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/21</td><td>921</td><td>New York Yankees
A. Pettitte</td><td>-1.5 +134</td><td>-118</td><td>OVER 10.5 -118</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>04:10 PM</td><td>922</td><td>Boston Red Sox
B. Penny</td><td>+1.5 -144</td><td>+110</td><td>UNDER 10.5 +108</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/21</td><td>923</td><td>Texas Rangers
D. Nippert</td><td>+1.5 -150</td><td>+138</td><td>OVER 9.5 +106</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:35 PM</td><td>924</td><td>Tampa Bay Rays
S. Kazmir</td><td>-1.5 +140</td><td>-146</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -116</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/21</td><td>925</td><td>Minnesota Twins
N. Blackburn</td><td>-1.5 +135</td><td>-120</td><td>OVER 9.5 +103</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>05:10 PM</td><td>926</td><td>Kansas City Royals
L. Hochevar</td><td>+1.5 -145</td><td>+112</td><td>UNDER 9.5 -113</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Fri 8/21</td><td>927</td><td>Baltimore Orioles
J. Guthrie</td><td>+1.5 -121</td><td>+180</td><td>OVER 9 +100</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>05:10 PM</td><td>928</td><td>Chicago White Sox
G. Floyd</td><td>-1.5 +111</td><td>-191</td><td>UNDER 9 -110</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Fri 8/21</td><td>929</td><td>Detroit Tigers
E. Jackson</td><td>-1.5 +113</td><td>-144</td><td>OVER 8.5 +111</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>07:05 PM</td><td>930</td><td>Oakland Athletics
G. Gonzalez</td><td>+1.5 -123</td><td>+136</td><td>UNDER 8.5 -121</td></tr></tbody></table>

Man your really starting early!!
I don't look until I wake up in the morning

Pitchers with horrible match-ups waiting for them tomorrow that may be overvalued:

O' Sullivan

J.D. Martin

Most interesting line: Det/Oak

Give me a while to get some valuation done, while that don't be scared share your opinions and thoughts.

Betsmart said:

Man your really starting early!!
I don't look until I wake up in the morning

Click to expand...

I usually alertly looking around noon when they usually open the overnight lines and sometimes grab some lines that are valued and may move.

Cubs may be a popular dog tomorrow, but are they really showing value? When you dig deep into the stats Randy Wells is allowing .298 and 1.52 WHIP against LHB which LA can throw as many as 6 in the line up.

Padres a LIVE DOG..

Cards horrible against LHP..

Pads much better at home and Lohse a big fave on road???

Pads been hitting the ball lately .275 BA last 7 games..

gynecologist said:

Cards horrible against LHP..

Pads much better at home, Pads a live dog tomorrow.. Lohse a big fave on road???

Pads been hitting the ball lately..

Click to expand...

I was thinking the same off first glance, good eye gyne.

good work boys

Cards vs LHP

.237 BA (28) .314 OBP (27) .682 OPS (27)

Interesting to see what the market does with the Nyy/Bos game. My current line is Yankees -125. Brad Penny was probably lucky to avoid the Yanks a few weeks ago. Prone to the long ball badly this year and his command is a concern to walks, terrible fundamental match-up for him.

I don't trust either pitcher.. I'd love to fade Penny against a super lineup like the Yanks tho..

Im liking that angels money line.

Tribes are good for a win tomorrow. They are a lefty killer...

Big plays: Colorado, CWS, Houston
Medium: Texas (perhaps)
Small: Washington (I'll take the against Milwaukee until they win - if they will win^^)

I've already locked in all games expect Texas

White Sox:
Floyd amazing at home, Guthrie pathetic on road.. White Sox rested, at home no travel. Baltimore travel. Baltimore has a horrible BP and won their last game, chances are they won't win two in a row..

TEXAS:
Nippert has been pitching pretty damn good, Kazmir is still shaky to me. Rangers offense has been on fire. I like this price.

ANGELS:
One team killing it offensively vs a team who is struggling hitting the ball.. O Sullivan scares me, going to bet it just not sure how much.

Markets once again look tight on the overnight. Hopefully the market may open things up intraday tommorrow. Starting to notice a trend that the undervaluation ratio of underdogs to favorites is increasing.

Here are some of my larger positions on the overnight

Large
Rays

Upper Medium
Nationals
Cubs

The last 3 fridays have been fucking brutal for me so I'm going to play it very tight tommorrow and just nail 1 play heavy.
I'd love to play the yanks cuz Penny sucks but Pettite is pretty fucking shaky himself, don't think I can trust him on the road. I Need to look through the lines closely to find that 1 play.

At first look I really like the Yankee run line at +130...more of a testament to Penny than much else though. Yankee bats kind of died down out West against the A's...had the day off but still had to travel cross country.

Angels in third Away series/Game 1

MLB as a whole is playing almost over .550 in this role and last season were just under .500

These numbers vs an overall MLB Away win % of about .420

Causative theory is that a team has been on the road for a week and is in a nice, set rhythm with fewer distractions than when playing at Home

====
NYY are still the far superior club to Boston unless it's Beckett or Lester. Red Sox this season coming Home After an AwayWin are 1-3. Oh, Yankees are also in the same scheduling role as Angels above

====
SAN FRAN - In that same scheduling role for the fifth time this season and they won all four of the previous shots


Put the above three in a 3TeamParlay (+105, -120, +157)

Pays 8.67 x 1

best to us all for a good friday

Also really like ChiSox run line tomorrow...Guthrie has been horrible (albeit against some good bats) and Floyd has been lights out at home lately:

Floyd L4 at home (Angels, Yanks, Rays, Dodgers)
28.1IP - 22H - 6ER - 6BB - 26K - 1.90ERA - .98WHIP - 8.32K/9