I've found the answer to be yes, absolutely, in basketball, which is what I mainly personally wager on.
For example, the last 2 years in the NBA, the first few weeks of the regular season, I beat lines moves up to 1-3 points consistently, yet was still losing my azz as the games were going the opposite and resulted in having to dig myself out of huge holes to climb back to positive.
I couldn't say on other sports.
For example, the last 2 years in the NBA, the first few weeks of the regular season, I beat lines moves up to 1-3 points consistently, yet was still losing my azz as the games were going the opposite and resulted in having to dig myself out of huge holes to climb back to positive.
I couldn't say on other sports.
A better price to someone could also be just the opposite of what others like.
If you like -4 and grab it early, I may like +4 but wait to see if it goes up and like +5.5 EVEN BETTER, while you think you got a great deal.
It all depends on which side you like....:toast:
This question has so many ways to answer it, Im not even sure where to start.
In the end, I think the best way I can put it is, these numbers feed us (bookies) day in and day out. If you can beat those numbers, you are beating what feeds us.
Of course, u can follow line moves and end up losing your ass, its not like its automatic.
In the end, I think the best way I can put it is, these numbers feed us (bookies) day in and day out. If you can beat those numbers, you are beating what feeds us.
Of course, u can follow line moves and end up losing your ass, its not like its automatic.
Minor quibble - you still have to take into account the juice. You'll get a 1% return above what you'd otherwise get if you went with the closing line, but you'd still lose money when the vig is taken. (I also think in terms of 50% ROR as breaking even, so you'd need a 4c advantage for 1%).
But you're exactly right - you have to consistently beat the closing line to have long term success.
Not exactly..
It would probably take a small-time local or offshore to cut your limits if all you are doing is betting something at it's apex. I know of one person in particular who does just this and has around 10-20 outs at any given time. No problems whatsoever.
As for the original post, who clearly is lacking some logic - of course beating the closing line isn't overrated. Anytime you can get a better number than the closer, you create a statistically better situation for yourself. Obviously, this varies by sport and is extremely important in MLB and NHL totals. I can't tell you how many times I have won or pushed a total bet because I got a better number than what it closed at. Like if I wanted to bet U 9.0 in a MLB game, and got that number, then it closed at 8.5. I have a pretty big advantage over the bettor who got the 8.5 Now, if the total lands right on 9.0, I will push and essentially have a 1 run advantage over the closing number (since 8.5 only eliminates the push on 8.0).
When you calculate that you maybe have a 1 run advantage from the opening number and the number drops and closes a half run lower and I bet that closing number, I have effectively eliminated my 1 run advantage and now it is only 0.5, so mathematically it will of course worse in the long run than the 1+ run advantage.
