YTD: 11-9 (55%)
TEXAS RANGERS +1.5 (-140)
Even with Scott Kazmir struggling mightily this year, the Rays are heavily favored in this game, probably due to the fact that they are a superb home team. Because of that however, I feel like the Rays are either being severely overvalued, or the Rangers are being severely undervalued. Dustin Nippert has worked much of the year in the Rangers bullpen, but in his starts for Texas, he is 2-1 with a 4.20 ERA, which is not too shabby. Kazmir, on the other hand who has been hurt at times this year, is 7-7 with a 6.36 ERA. Those are hardly the numbers the Rays were expecting from their supposed "ace". To make matters worse, Kazmir's home ERA is almost a full point higher at 7.32. He is not striking out a lot of hitters, which is his type of game, and has been having control issues, leading to the 1.63 WHIP on the season. There is a very definite possibility that he may still be partially injured. The Rangers are the type of team that can easily take advantage of a struggling pitcher in this situation. If it wasn't for Tampa Bay's .667 winning percentage at home, I would probably take the Rangers straight up. However, I'm going to take the safe route and take the Rangers on the runline instead. BOL to all!!
-Ole Nubbs
TEXAS RANGERS +1.5 (-140)
Even with Scott Kazmir struggling mightily this year, the Rays are heavily favored in this game, probably due to the fact that they are a superb home team. Because of that however, I feel like the Rays are either being severely overvalued, or the Rangers are being severely undervalued. Dustin Nippert has worked much of the year in the Rangers bullpen, but in his starts for Texas, he is 2-1 with a 4.20 ERA, which is not too shabby. Kazmir, on the other hand who has been hurt at times this year, is 7-7 with a 6.36 ERA. Those are hardly the numbers the Rays were expecting from their supposed "ace". To make matters worse, Kazmir's home ERA is almost a full point higher at 7.32. He is not striking out a lot of hitters, which is his type of game, and has been having control issues, leading to the 1.63 WHIP on the season. There is a very definite possibility that he may still be partially injured. The Rangers are the type of team that can easily take advantage of a struggling pitcher in this situation. If it wasn't for Tampa Bay's .667 winning percentage at home, I would probably take the Rangers straight up. However, I'm going to take the safe route and take the Rangers on the runline instead. BOL to all!!
-Ole Nubbs
