8/25 Overnight MLB Discussion

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" width="650"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#17654b"><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">TUESDAY</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 7:05 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">901</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Philadelphia Phillies
J Blanton -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-1 ½ -120</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-171</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">O: 8 ½ -110</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">902</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Pittsburgh Pirates
R Ohlendorf -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+1 ½ +100</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+161</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> U: 8 ½ -110 </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 7:10 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">903</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">San Diego Padres
M Latos -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+1 ½ +100</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+217</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">O: 8 -110</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">904</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Atlanta Braves
J Jurrjens -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-1 ½ -120</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-237</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> U: 8 -110 </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 7:10 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">905</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">New York Mets
N Figueroa -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">906</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Florida Marlins
S West -L </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 8:05 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">907</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Cincinnati Reds
B Arroyo -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+1 ½ -170</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+127</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">O: 9 -115</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">908</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Milwaukee Brewers
J Suppan -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-1 ½ +150</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-137</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> U: 9 -105 </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 8:05 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">909</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Washington Nationals
G Mock -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+216</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">910</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Chicago Cubs
C Zambrano -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-241</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 8:15 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">911</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Houston Astros
W Rodriguez -L </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+1 ½ -145</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+150</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">O: 7 -115</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">912</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">St Louis Cardinals
A Wainwright -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-1 ½ +125</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-160</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> U: 7 -105 </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 8:40 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">913</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Los Angeles Dodgers
C Kershaw -L </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-1 ½ +140</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-107</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">O: 9 -120</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">914</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Colorado Rockies
J Hammel -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+1 ½ -160</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-103</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> U: 9 +100 </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 10:15 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">915</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Arizona Diamondbacks
D Haren -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+1 ½ -175</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+128</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">O: 7 +105</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">916</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">San Francisco Giants
M Cain -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-1 ½ +155</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-138</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> U: 7 -125 </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 7:05 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">917</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Texas Rangers
K Millwood -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+1 ½ -130</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+163</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">O: 10 -105</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">918</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">New York Yankees
J Chamberlain -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-1 ½ +110</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-173</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> U: 10 -115 </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 7:05 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">919</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tampa Bay Rays
J Shields -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-1 ½ +105</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-142</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">O: 9 -118</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">920</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Toronto Blue Jays
B Cecil -L </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+1 ½ -125</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+132</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> U: 9 -102 </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 7:10 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">921</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Chicago White Sox
F Garcia -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+1 ½ +130</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+250</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">O: 9 ½ -115</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">922</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Boston Red Sox
J Lester -L </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-1 ½ -150</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-285</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> U: 9 ½ -105 </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 8:10 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">923</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Baltimore Orioles
B Matusz -L </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+1 ½ -140</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+155</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">O: 10 ½ +100</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">924</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Minnesota Twins
A Gabino -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-1 ½ +120</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-165</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> U: 10 ½ -120 </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 8:10 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">925</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Cleveland Indians
J Masterson -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+1 ½ -150</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+153</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">O: 8 -120</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">926</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Kansas City Royals
Z Greinke -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-1 ½ +130</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-163</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> U: 8 +100 </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 10:05 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">927</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Detroit Tigers
J Washburn -L </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+1 ½ -140</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+155</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">O: 8 ½ -120</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">928</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Los Angeles Angels
J Lackey -R </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-1 ½ +120</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-165</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> U: 8 ½ +100 </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td colspan="7" align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Tuesday, August 25, 2009 10:10 PM PREVIEW MATCHUPS INJURIES | STANDINGS | WEATHER
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">929</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Oakland Athletics
B Anderson -L </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+1 ½ -190</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">+115</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">O: 8 -105</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">930</td><td align="LEFT" valign="TOP">Seattle Mariners
R Rowland-Smith -L </td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-1 ½ +160</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP">-125</td><td align="RIGHT" valign="TOP"> U: 8 -115</td></tr></tbody></table>

For some reason i can not cut and paste from pinnacle right now so this will do.

Its pretty obvious Dan Haren is producing the same success as earlier in the season, good luck and seeing weak offenses has gotten a head of him.

Matt Cain should overpower this team from top and bottom.

The current price of the Giants is a bargain.

Oddmakers are unsure how to set the O's/Min line, their bearish valuation on Matusz provides value on the O's.

Like Cain at that price as well...

Like the Rays RL, StL RL, SF ML, and the Doyers at first glance.

Like the Rays myself

So far like sea & sf str8

possible rl or ml parlay w any of the following; nyy, atl, phil, flor & cubs,
still narrowing down the plays

win or lose tonites game may waste the giants. as the beach boy went 3, so i presume he wont be available tomorrow. i would proceed with caution.

Akillies said:

win or lose tonites game may waste the giants. as the beach boy went 3, so i presume he wont be available tomorrow. i would proceed with caution.

Click to expand...

cain will go atleast 8 tomm:toast:

Not much I am liking a lot of the card tommorrow. A lot of small plays, but nothing really screaming value.

Upper Medium
Cardinals -160
This line caught me by suprise. I have been saying for 2 years that Wainwright is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the league. About two months ago (coincided with the Cardinals improvement to their lineup) the market was deciding to no longer leave any value on the table to back Wainwright. Last week, the market undervalued Rodgriguez at home where he performs a lot better. Now having to pitch on the road, I am suprised to see the market take such a drastic change in their valuation. I expect the market to send this line higher.

Medium
Reds +129
Oddsmakers are becoming more and more bearish on the Reds as the season progressed. Rightfully so, but now they may be overduing it. Arroyo has been lights out in recent starts. He has been one of the better pitchers in the league since the break. The Brewers lineup is better suited facing fastball pitchers, not ones that pitch backwards like Arroyo.
Suppan is a question mark. He was not effective at all in his rehab assignments and was roughed up by Single A hitters. Even if his effectiveness returns, he could still struggle.


Note:
The market valued the Giants before Mondays game was played with a no-vig price of -133. After their game, they now value them at -125, a 6% devaluation. The Rockies were downgraded by roughly the same amount. The material impact of this extra inning game on the Giants should probably be a bit more than the market is currently valuing. Dont be suprised to see another 5 cent drop.

buffettgambler said:

Not much I am liking a lot of the card tommorrow. A lot of small plays, but nothing really screaming value.

Upper Medium
Cardinals -160
This line caught me by suprise. I have been saying for 2 years that Wainwright is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the league. About two months ago (coincided with the Cardinals improvement to their lineup) the market was deciding to no longer leave any value on the table to back Wainwright. Last week, the market undervalued Rodgriguez at home where he performs a lot better. Now having to pitch on the road, I am suprised to see the market take such a drastic change in their valuation. I expect the market to send this line higher.

Medium
Reds +129
Oddsmakers are becoming more and more bearish on the Reds as the season progressed. Rightfully so, but now they may be overduing it. Arroyo has been lights out in recent starts. He has been one of the better pitchers in the league since the break. The Brewers lineup is better suited facing fastball pitchers, not ones that pitch backwards like Arroyo.
Suppan is a question mark. He was not effective at all in his rehab assignments and was roughed up by Single A hitters. Even if his effectiveness returns, he could still struggle.


Note:
The market valued the Giants before Mondays game was played with a no-vig price of -133. After their game, they now value them at -125, a 6% devaluation. The Rockies were downgraded by roughly the same amount. The material impact of this extra inning game on the Giants should probably be a bit more than the market is currently valuing. Dont be suprised to see another 5 cent drop.

Click to expand...

I agree with everything you say about the Cards, reason the line is where its at is because STL is pitiful against LHP.. I have the under in the game, think it will be low scoring..

My problem with laying money on the Reds doesn't have to do with Arroyo...it has to do with the Reds bats. Arroyo's ERA is sub 3 since the ASB but Reds bats have only averaged about 3 runs in his starts (earned only two wins in 7 starts since ASB.)

Yeah - thats pretty good value with how Arroyo has been pitching but IMO putting $ on the Reds is just as good as blowing it on some lottery tickets.

Nationals at +235 is value.. Z is coming off DL, Mock has been ok and the Nats bats have arguably performed better lately..

I've seen worse +235 in my time.

buffettgambler said:

Not much I am liking a lot of the card tommorrow. A lot of small plays, but nothing really screaming value.

Upper Medium
Cardinals -160
This line caught me by suprise. I have been saying for 2 years that Wainwright is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the league. About two months ago (coincided with the Cardinals improvement to their lineup) the market was deciding to no longer leave any value on the table to back Wainwright. Last week, the market undervalued Rodgriguez at home where he performs a lot better. Now having to pitch on the road, I am suprised to see the market take such a drastic change in their valuation. I expect the market to send this line higher.

Medium
Reds +129
Oddsmakers are becoming more and more bearish on the Reds as the season progressed. Rightfully so, but now they may be overduing it. Arroyo has been lights out in recent starts. He has been one of the better pitchers in the league since the break. The Brewers lineup is better suited facing fastball pitchers, not ones that pitch backwards like Arroyo.
Suppan is a question mark. He was not effective at all in his rehab assignments and was roughed up by Single A hitters. Even if his effectiveness returns, he could still struggle.


Note:
The market valued the Giants before Mondays game was played with a no-vig price of -133. After their game, they now value them at -125, a 6% devaluation. The Rockies were downgraded by roughly the same amount. The material impact of this extra inning game on the Giants should probably be a bit more than the market is currently valuing. Dont be suprised to see another 5 cent drop.

Click to expand...

The market is agreeing with my two plays posted.
As expected, the market was not done correcting the Giants price based on their game last night against the Rockies. Their current no-vig price is now -110, a 17% drop off the open, and a 12% drop since the time of my post last night.

Buffett, do you ever bet totals?

a153 said:

Buffett, do you ever bet totals?

Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure he doesn't.

Today's Plays:

Yesterday had a good day with Boston coming in easily along with Cleveland and a small profit on Detroit.

Today's games: -167 ST. LOUIS
St. Louis (Large) It's been already stated above by BG about the difference in Rodriguez's game. I was against him the other night vs Florida and came up short. Wainwright has been great for past two years and returned over 15% of played money.

Medium Play: Cleveland +140

I'm backing Cleveland again at +140 money today. Greinke has been a bright spot but Cleveland keeps winning and they aren't getting any respect by the oddsmakers. Last time out Masterson looked good. A number of players have hit Greinke well.