Paper Chasing Aug 28

Okay so I’m still waiting out the Angels game to finish off the day. But here is a recap of the day so far:

Phi/Pitt U 8.5 -105 (2-3) +1
Bos -115, -1.5 175 (9-5) -2.15 (Nobody told me Boston wasn’t going to show up lol)
LAA -170 (Pending)

YTD 5-2 +2.90 units

Here are my plays for Friday with write ups to follow

SD @ Fla O 8.5 -120
TB @ Det U 9 -120
Was +165
Cle -110
SF -128

San Diego Padres @ Florida Marlins (O 8.5 -120 Cris)

Away for home this year the average total score in San Diego’s games has been 10.16. Similarly in Florida’s home games this season the average total score has been 10.02. In the games Correia has started on the road he has an era of 5.25 and the average total score of those games is 9.55. In Volstad’s home starts his era is 5.18 with an average total score of 10.31. A couple of other interesting stats is the over is 8-1 in San Diego’s last 9 games as a road dog and the over is 8-1 in Florida’s last 9 games as a home favorite. If you still can try and get this game at 8.5, most books have it at 9 now, but last time I checked Matchbook still had at 8.5 at a price of -135 for the over.


Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers (U 9 -120 Pinnacle)

When studying this game the first thing that stands out is that the under is 10-1 in Garza’s road starts this season and an average total score of 7.36. While in Porcello’s home starts the under has been a modest 5-5 with a total average score of 9.91. However, I look for Porcello to come out and bounce back after a poor performance his last outing in Oakland. Some other interesting notes in Garza’s 5 career starts against Detroit the under is 4-1. In Detroit’s last 25 games vs. a team with a winning record the under is 16-7-2.

Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals (Washington +165 Cris)

Well for the most part I just do not like Smoltz right now at a price of -170+. I mean St. Louis has been playing great baseball and heck they have made me a lot of money, but I think there is some value in Washington. St. Louis is coming off a tough loss against Houston and Washington believe it or not is coming off a series victory of the Cubbies. Now Smoltz did throw 5 scoreless innings his last outing, but he also did face Washington earlier this year pitching for Boston. The Red Sox lost that game 9-3 and Smoltz gave up 5 runs over 5 innings. Lannan will be pitching for the Nationals and has been awful his last 3 starts, but he is a much better pitcher and I expect him to rebound. As well in 2 career starts against St. Louis, Lannan has allowed 4 runs over 12.2 innings pitched.


Cleveland Indians @ Baltimore Orioles (Cleveland -110 Pinnacle)

In game that most people won’t care about I have to go with Carmona who has had an era of 2.63 in the month of August. Carmona has been pitching they way we were used to seeing him throw a couple of years ago. There is one thing that does worry me about his numbers and that is all of his starts in August have been at home. He has an 8.25 era on the road this year, however I think he has gained back some confidence in his pitching and Cleveland is a good play at a price of -110, especially since Baltimore is 3-13 in Berken’s last 16 games.

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (San Francisco -128 Pinnacle)

Not a whole lot of numbers to throw at you on this game because the angle I’m approaching this game is revenge. Lincecum had a good outing his last start in Colorado only to lose in the final innings against Jimenez and the Rockies. But, we all know how dominate Lincecum his at home is an era of 1.98 and 113 strikeouts over 95 innings. Colorado is coming off a tough series lost to the Dodgers and now have to travel to San Francisco to play another team there are fighting against for a playoff spot. This will not be an easy task for them and I think the Giants will be too much for them Friday. I have not officially played this game yet because I believe the line will drop some more tomorrow so I’m going to wait, but the number I posted is the best price I’ve seen up to this point.

Was along for the PHI/PIT Under on Thursday and will get right back in with you on the SD/FLA Over and the TB/DET Under

I don't have my spreadsheet handy at this moment, but we do have some strong numbers for SD in Game1s Away going back into last season. They're over 80% to the Over (very inverse to their Home & Under Game1s)

Best to us for another 'shared profit'.

SD this season playing Away outside their division are 25-10-3 vs "9"

FLA past 41 at Home vs teams outside their division are 24-15-3 vs "9"

Alright excellent stats there makes me like the over that much more in this game.

Let's keep hitting these totals!

PC, you might enjoy some of the bits and pieces a small group of us are trying to assemble more days than not down in the "Politics" forum.

Here's the current thread, third in a series dating back to mid July

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=697995

I copied some of your post from today (Aug 28) intp my own post there.

barman said:

Was along for the PHI/PIT Under on Thursday and will get right back in with you on the SD/FLA Over and the TB/DET Under

Best to us for another 'shared profit'.

Click to expand...

:smoker2: