Monday Discussion let's get it going......

fugazi · Aug 30, 2009

Let's get the discussion going and try to start the week off on the right foot as our thread for sunday scoped out a bunch of winners.
First glance the teams I like and I think I'd make a play on are:
MInny -115
TExas -170 high juice but the team is hot and toronto has thrown in the towel
DOdgers -180 high juice again but Randy Wolf has been dealing and this is a good play, I think the line will drop by tommorrow too as Zona has been hot
LIke the Angels and Tigers as well but want to see what the line does
ALso why the fuck is Oswalt +140 against the hapless cubs? Got check his #'s against the cubs.

What do you guys like? LEt's put our heads together and pick out some winners, fuck the books!

MemphisMonroe · Aug 31, 2009

Im liking the dodgers play but need to sleep on it and wakeup to the line and see if any movement has taken place on it.

Texas looks good too but lovin the dodgers more.

buffettgambler · Aug 31, 2009

Does it not seem counterintuitive think both that the Dodgers -180 is a good play and the market will send the price down? Are you suggesting that an intraday bid down and a buyback before the close is in the cards, or that the baseball market is not efficient?

MemphisMonroe · Aug 31, 2009

Im thinking the dodgers will get up to the -200 perhaps being the late game on the board and if early games have alot of underdog outcomes.

buffettgambler · Aug 31, 2009

K1ller Bet$ said:
Im thinking the dodgers will get up to the -200 perhaps being the late game on the board and if early games have alot of underdog outcomes.

Interesting. Not to be confrontation, but would it not be illogicical to sleep on a -180 line when you think it will close around -200. Furthermore, or you suggesting the market is naive enough to correlate independent events by bidding up the Dodgers based on how a couple afternoon games do?

fugazi · Aug 31, 2009

I'm thinking the Dodger line might come down because of this hot little streak AZ has put on over the weekend. That's why I will sleep on the DOdger line.
I think Minny and Texas will go up so I probably move on those tonight, I'm waiting to get a line on Florida too as I like that play as well.

fugazi · Aug 31, 2009

blackburn is a scumbag but he's beat the WHiteSOx his last 2 outs and out of 6 visits to to Minny this year, CHicago has lost 5 of the 6 games. THis is a line I play tonight as I think the market pushes the line up by tomomrrow.

fugazi · Aug 31, 2009

I'm liking Oswalt and Houston against the Cubs, +140 for a pitcher like Oswalt against teh CUbs? I'll take it. Houston just got swept by the Dbacks so it's a good time to play them IMO.

jordan17 · Aug 31, 2009

just enjoying my nice day, hanging with my halley berry look~a~like gf...havent looked @ tomarrow lines yet...:grandmais

ps give me 2 minutes...

gynecologist · Aug 31, 2009

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=703723

gynecologist · Aug 31, 2009

KC looks like a good doggie tomorrow..

Much better pitcher IMO, bats are about equally bad. I don't think home field means much, not like many are going to the game..

Better pitcher, equal to same batting at +116 or +120, thats something I usually take more often then not.

gynecologist · Aug 31, 2009

Dodgers ACE Randy Wolf is pitching, the only thing that bothers me is the fact that Dodger stadium is the perfect place for the fly ball pitcher like Davis.. He has fared well against the Dodgers..

I think the D'Backs mini run they're on is a fraud, they've been beating up on bad pitching.

dopenose420 · Aug 31, 2009

Wolf has been the Dodgers most consistent pitcher the past month or so...definitely like backing the Dodgers tomorrow as I think the lineup gets back in the swing of things and hopefully being at home brings them some more runs like Saturday.

buffettgambler · Aug 31, 2009

gynecologist said:
Dodgers ACE Randy Wolf is pitching, the only thing that bothers me is the fact that Dodger stadium is the perfect place for the fly ball pitcher like Davis.. He has fared well against the Dodgers..

I think the D'Backs mini run they're on is a fraud, they've been beating up on bad pitching.

Probably not the most accurate statement labeling Davis a flyball pitcher. In fact, Davis is more of a groundball pitcher. One thing that the conventional GB/FB ratio does not distinguish is between linedrives, pop ups and flyballs. This ratio counts all of them as equal, and does not really allow a handicapper to quanitify any potential worth added or subtracted by a pitcher pitching in a pitchers park (like you mention Dodger Stadium being) or a bandbox. Breaking down the FB into 3 catergories (FB, LD, and POP) is a much more effective predictor from a handicapping perspective.

That said, under those guidelines, Davis has the 15th highest GB% out of all NL starters this year. This is also Davis lowest GB% in five years. This is in large part due to Davis having a high POP and LD% per FB. Wolf on the other hand, has the second highest FB% in the NL, and surely a pitcher the benefits from pitching in Dodger stadium.

buffettgambler · Aug 31, 2009

fugazi said:
I'm liking Oswalt and Houston against the Cubs, +140 for a pitcher like Oswalt against teh CUbs? I'll take it. Houston just got swept by the Dbacks so it's a good time to play them IMO.

With the way Harden has pitched since the break and the recent valuation the marketplace has put on the Cubs during his starts, I am a bit suprised to see them bid down the open and want to close this price at the same price Oswalt was priced on the road in his last start against Pienero.

flight_629 · Aug 31, 2009

like detroit, small price at home

fugazi · Aug 31, 2009

I was looking at Detroit too but SHields has solid fucking numbers against Detroit.
Tough one here, either Tampa is going to be bitter about giving away the game today on that 3 run homer to Polanco or they are going to be broken by it and coming in all sorrow and shit.
That's a game I want to bet on cuz the juice will be low but a coinflip of a game.

fugazi · Aug 31, 2009

Parlays aren't my thing, but I just threw a unit on a 3 teamer with the Dodgers, Rangers, and Yankees.

I'm throwing a couple of units on Minny tonight and Houston. THen will likely also throw some units on the Tampa/Detroit game (just have to decide on a side, haha), Angels, FLorida.