Liking predominantly underdogs today. It also looks like I wil be backing the teams that I have deemed undervalued all series long.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
> </o>
Large
Nationals +118
I am not going to let two games sway my opinion. The Padres are an undervalued home team and the Nationals have an undervalued lineup. Corriea is a streaky pitcher who is coming off two outings in which he was consistently hit pretty hard. His WHIP since the break leaves a lot to be desired and his ERA since the break is not commensurate to his derivative numbers and suggests a potential downturn. Despite being in the league since 2003, Corriea has surpassed his career high innings pitched in a season (minors/majors combined by over 25%, making him a question mark down the stretch.
<o> </o>
I like backing Lannan on the road, as bearish sentiment due to road struggles this year may be overdone, as in my opinion, it is nothing more than randomness as past years road productivity would suggest. His last start was also comforting as starts prior was suggesting he was not himself. He has dominated the Padres in the past, dominated them in his only start this year, and his style against the Padres lineup suggests past domination is sustainable. His ability to eat up innings also avoids the Nats bad bullpen.
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
Upper Medium
Angels +121
No surprise that the Angels are once again coming with some value. Despite the Mariners key players coming back and eating up a portion of their overvaluation (based on the markets perceived VORP relative to mine), the Mariners lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Kazmir continues to be devalued by oddsmakers. However, he continues to improved and should benefit from the change of scenery. His home run allowed propensity should also benefit from the Mariners lack of power and spacious park. He is backed by a well rested bullpen.
<o> </o>
Hernandez has quietly regressed as the season progressed, but the market appears to have ignored this notion. They also appear not to be fully discounting the fact that Hernandez has never been an effective pitcher against the Angels, a team who knows him really well. Hernandez’s walk rate had materially increased in August, not something you want against an Angels team who takes a patient approach with him.
<o> </o>
Indians +144
I think the market is playing with fire giving Porcello this price tag. Much like Washburn, Verlander, and Jackson, we have seen the best of Porcello this season. The team knew he wasn’t going to be effective after a certain accumulation of innings, and has shown a decrease of production and increase in variance of late. He has also faced the same lineup 3 times twice this season, the Mariners, and A’s. His third start against both lineups was a bad one, allowing five runs in five innings. This will be the third time that the Indians get to see this rookie. Backed by a sub par bullpen should allow the Indians to face sub par pitching throughout.
<o> </o>
I don’t think that Laffey’s current ERA is sustainable and am not terribly bullish on him, but the market place apparently is not either. He still is the Indians best pitcher and a pitcher who has done a great job getting out of jams, something that hopefully can offset the Tigers clutch hitting.
<o> </o>
Medium
Red Sox +114
This line has taken me by a huge surprise as it lacks commensurability of the Rays/ Red Sox first game as well as past market valuations of Becket and Garza alike. Garza has been consistently undervalued, and Becket overvalued. I am well aware of Beckets recent struggles, but that usually results in a convergence in fair value, not an undervaluation. Lets also not forget that Garza has been nothing more than an average pitcher since the break, and not as an effective pitcher compared to when he accumulated those impressive numbers against the Red Sox earlier this season.
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>Large
Nationals +118
I am not going to let two games sway my opinion. The Padres are an undervalued home team and the Nationals have an undervalued lineup. Corriea is a streaky pitcher who is coming off two outings in which he was consistently hit pretty hard. His WHIP since the break leaves a lot to be desired and his ERA since the break is not commensurate to his derivative numbers and suggests a potential downturn. Despite being in the league since 2003, Corriea has surpassed his career high innings pitched in a season (minors/majors combined by over 25%, making him a question mark down the stretch.
<o
> </o>I like backing Lannan on the road, as bearish sentiment due to road struggles this year may be overdone, as in my opinion, it is nothing more than randomness as past years road productivity would suggest. His last start was also comforting as starts prior was suggesting he was not himself. He has dominated the Padres in the past, dominated them in his only start this year, and his style against the Padres lineup suggests past domination is sustainable. His ability to eat up innings also avoids the Nats bad bullpen.
<o
> </o><o
> </o>Upper Medium
Angels +121
No surprise that the Angels are once again coming with some value. Despite the Mariners key players coming back and eating up a portion of their overvaluation (based on the markets perceived VORP relative to mine), the Mariners lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Kazmir continues to be devalued by oddsmakers. However, he continues to improved and should benefit from the change of scenery. His home run allowed propensity should also benefit from the Mariners lack of power and spacious park. He is backed by a well rested bullpen.
<o
> </o>Hernandez has quietly regressed as the season progressed, but the market appears to have ignored this notion. They also appear not to be fully discounting the fact that Hernandez has never been an effective pitcher against the Angels, a team who knows him really well. Hernandez’s walk rate had materially increased in August, not something you want against an Angels team who takes a patient approach with him.
<o
> </o>Indians +144
I think the market is playing with fire giving Porcello this price tag. Much like Washburn, Verlander, and Jackson, we have seen the best of Porcello this season. The team knew he wasn’t going to be effective after a certain accumulation of innings, and has shown a decrease of production and increase in variance of late. He has also faced the same lineup 3 times twice this season, the Mariners, and A’s. His third start against both lineups was a bad one, allowing five runs in five innings. This will be the third time that the Indians get to see this rookie. Backed by a sub par bullpen should allow the Indians to face sub par pitching throughout.
<o
> </o>I don’t think that Laffey’s current ERA is sustainable and am not terribly bullish on him, but the market place apparently is not either. He still is the Indians best pitcher and a pitcher who has done a great job getting out of jams, something that hopefully can offset the Tigers clutch hitting.
<o
> </o>Medium
Red Sox +114
This line has taken me by a huge surprise as it lacks commensurability of the Rays/ Red Sox first game as well as past market valuations of Becket and Garza alike. Garza has been consistently undervalued, and Becket overvalued. I am well aware of Beckets recent struggles, but that usually results in a convergence in fair value, not an undervaluation. Lets also not forget that Garza has been nothing more than an average pitcher since the break, and not as an effective pitcher compared to when he accumulated those impressive numbers against the Red Sox earlier this season.
<o
> </o><o
> </o>
