What do you think of this NFL Strategy?

SundayTiger · Sep 6, 2009

I got an email from a friend this morning asking me what I thought of his strategy for the upcoming NFL season. Figured I'd post it here to get some honest answers to his "Strategy".

"If you've got some big money I plan on winning about 15 grand this season betting the money lines of the sure fire winners and parlaying them together. Just waiting for the moneylines to go up on betus but i'm thinking that the games in week 1 are gonna be New Orleans, San Diego and New England. A grand should pay somewhere in the 700's. I think this is the best way to go. Let me know what you think"

Alright guys, let him know what you think.

mplastered · Sep 6, 2009

If it was that easy, everyone would do it.

KidKash · Sep 6, 2009

Not good :>(

TomGshotput · Sep 6, 2009

If it's such a good plan, why is he betting so small?

Haystacks · Sep 6, 2009

with parity in the NFL, laying 10 to win 7 in 3 teams that must win is suicide in the long run....I'd rather take 10 shots at 2 team ML underdog parlays that pay the same.

ProPokerPlayer · Sep 6, 2009

The fact he wants to do it at BetUS tells you he hasnt got a clue.

Other than that ck the math. 1000 pays 700. 1st that seems a lil high to me but 2nd If u win week1 u have 1700..If u lose week 2 u have 700 and lose week 3 ur 300 in the hole needing 2 straight winning weeks just to get even again.
And in Week 1 alone none of those 3 games are locks....
Systems dont work, picking winners does.

MikeB · Sep 6, 2009

Can you put him in touch with me so that I can be his book? @)

SundayTiger · Sep 6, 2009

Great responses. I can not wait to email him this thread.

SundayTiger · Sep 6, 2009

MikeB said:
Can you put him in touch with me so that I can be his book? @)

Oh it's a lock he would pay your mortgage a couple times over the course of the season.

Iceman · Sep 6, 2009

Not to be an ass but that strategy would be absolutely horribile.

Moneyline bets of games lined over 4 or so in the NFL is so bad. Look at the spread in juice you pay on them. For example Baltimore -10 against KC at Pinny currently is line -600/+470, good luck beating that.

If you are looking for someone to book them, get ahold of me.

I guess the best way to find out how you would have done is to backtest and you will have your answer.

You ever play in one of those survivor pools and notice how many people get knocked out of them early on?

Best advice in the NFL is to take the team that gets beat the worst in the whole league the week before in the pointspread and bet them this week in the pointspread. It will suck and feel like you rae taking an awful team but you will win more then you lose every year.

5teamparlay · Sep 6, 2009

ACTUALLY it can be a great stategy if done RIGHT and just picking games straight off the fact they are high ML is not good. Avoid divisional rivalries, single game situations and road teams...

THERE IS A REASON WHY MANY BOOKS HERE, and LOCAL wont take high money lines.. its part in due to this.

************** check green dobermans ML parlay thread from way back were he made few grand...

djmatt · Sep 6, 2009

Had someone do this with New England and they made money most of the season.. Then I believe it was good ole Tony Romo as 21 pt favorites get the shit beat out of them
then there was the superbowl!!!

2005-2006 people mopped up on ML and spreads.. fucking cleaned me out

hno:

Coaster · Sep 7, 2009

Maybe a system but not from a smart person.

WHY people parlay games at different times is CRAZY.

Play the Saints game straight up followed by the Pats and THEN Chargers.
Rolling profits forward less the juice.
Your return will be significantly larger.

Your friend is an IDIOT!!, but most likely a nice guy.

bad-golfer · Sep 7, 2009

I do this every week but i like to find one game i like a lot then throw 2 big favs on the ml

helps cut down on the juice sure i get burned before but i like betting this way

WorldNumberOne · Sep 7, 2009

Coaster said:
Maybe a system but not from a smart person.

WHY people parlay games at different times is CRAZY.

Play the Saints game straight up followed by the Pats and THEN Chargers.
Rolling profits forward less the juice.
Your return will be significantly larger.

Your friend is an IDIOT!!, but most likely a nice guy.

using 5dimes money lines of
-880
-700
-485

the return is the same playing one at a time or parlaying them.

if my math is correct ( its early and i'm hungover ) it would be

1000/113
1113 / 159
1272 / 262

+ 534

a parlay for 1000 would pay right around 535 using those lines.

Birdman · Sep 7, 2009

How do you think Vegas got so big?

As the math done earlier, the return closer to .55 than "Friend's" projection of .7

I admit I do this wager type in college baskets on a Sat with monster slate with 5-6 teams returning .7 to .8. I'll hit about 2 out of three to scratch out a little profit with a lot of sweating. So many games I can find some so called edges (injuries,travel, good team coming of couple losses because better player out now returning against conf bottom feeder, etc... However most games are conf games thus teams familiar with one another so there will be upsets)

harrington · Sep 7, 2009

I want all his action. Please send him my way.

Akillies · Sep 7, 2009

fortunately you got some good advice in here.
there is a reason, so many people want this kind of action.
by playing large fav's you are increasing your risk and limiting your returns.
if its action he wants? much better to go the opposite and take large dogs. smaller risk and bigger return.

ICAUITUA · Sep 7, 2009

World Number One said:
using 5dimes money lines of
-880
-700
-485

the return is the same playing one at a time or parlaying them.

if my math is correct ( its early and i'm hungover ) it would be

1000/113
1113 / 159
1272 / 262

+ 534

a parlay for 1000 would pay right around 535 using those lines.

World Number One you are correct.

-The Associative Law of Multiplication
No matter how terms are grouped in carrying out multiplications, the product will always be the same: (ab)c = a (bc).

-The Commutative Law of Multiplication
No matter in what order multiplication is carried out, the product will always be the same: ab = ba.

In fact the parlay might very often pay a minuscule amount more due to rounding which would be done after each game individually vs. only the end of a parlay.

-ICAUITUA's Law of Internet Forums Section 3.1

art D
When a person calls someone an idiot in bold and italics, without proof that they are correct themselves, the product will always be the same; they themselves are the one who looks like an idiot.

hoopsct · Sep 7, 2009

tiger i think a great idea in college not pros

What do you think of this NFL Strategy?

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