ok

OnWisconsin · Sep 8, 2009

some smart sons a guns here.

let's say you got 3 months of living expenses in the bank. boom. ok. your only source of income is what you make of it, because you got no job and the prospects suck. let's say you decide sports betting is going to be a part of your plan.

what does your plan look like? do you make small wagers every day, or do you wait till you get a good play and lay some serious cash on that play? i mean, what the fuck? it's easy for me to lay off a couple days after a large loss, but once i get back into it i got no clue. i went 3-1 today and lost money. not a lot, but how the fuck does that happen? 6-3 betting football since thursday, but i am in the red. sure, it would be nice to count some cash after going 6-3, but going 5-5 next week would leave me about even. fuck.

some advice from the vets would be appreciated.

valueman · Sep 8, 2009

If you've got 3 months living expenses as bankroll to bet with. I don't know what that is for you but min $10k I presume then realistically in year of disciplined betting with bets in the 1 - 3% range and a decent level of ability/knowledge in a sport(s) then you're likely to make $7k max profit in the YEAR!

Betting higher percentages than that you're likely to go broke quick time. You could get lucky I suppose but that's all it will be ...LUCK.

OnWisconsin · Sep 8, 2009

valueman said:
If you've got 3 months living expenses as bankroll to bet with. I don't know what that is for you but min $10k I presume then realistically in year of disciplined betting with bets in the 1 - 3% range and a decent level of ability/knowledge in a sport(s) then you're likely to make $7k max profit in the YEAR!

Betting higher percentages than that you're likely to go broke quick time. You could get lucky I suppose but that's all it will be ...LUCK.

i'm not a fan of flat betting because of the long term percentages. however, if i had flat bet this past weekend, i would have shown a decent profit. the reason i don't like it is because next weekend i could very well give it all back by going 4-6. i guess that's the fucking conundrum.

so now it's like, most bills come due within 1 week of each month. the other 3weeks, the pressure's not really there. the bank account doesn't really drop except during that one week. every bill gets paid as soon as i get it, so theres always a month and a half to two month leeway.

so i guess right now the pressure is starting to weigh on me a bit. assuming a bad run in the next week or two, instead of 3 months expenses i could be looking at just two. where do i make a stand and make a play? flat betting won't do me much good in the short term unless i go on a hell of a run.

fuck. i should've been asking this shit 6 months ago, but fuck it. there's options out there, so this ain't some desperate bullshit question -- worse case scenario i'll be working in the glue factory and wishing i had the opportunity to do this again.

valueman · Sep 8, 2009

It's not a question of flat betting or not, it's more a question of what you can make with a given bank. I don't flat bet and my staking plan is dependant on my current bank not the starting bank so gets more aggressive if I'm winning but even given this you'd do amazingly well to double your initial betting bank in a year given bets are in the range 1%-4%.

OnWisconsin · Sep 8, 2009

between 1 and 4% is basically what i'm trying to establish now. but that's assuming daily bets, regardless of the sport. first thing i've gotta do is avoid the degenerate action junkie plays. i am good at staying away from them after i've taken a loss, but after i've won $100 i have a tendency to bet 10 and 20 here and there. i gotta stop that shit, cause it eats into whatever profits i might be showing. this shit ain't easy. a big play loses, grind out a play or two, then the next play loses. fuck....

there ain't no magic bean around here. right now, i'm thinking the way to go for me is to identify a spot to make a large play -- maybe 5 or 6%. and leave the other shit alone.

djmatt · Sep 8, 2009

my lousy advice... get a lousy job. your three months of living expenses bank roll is going to go quick because you're going to press on your bets 9 out of 10 times.

gynecologist · Sep 8, 2009

Start off small and periodically increase your bet size every week. Once you start winning and feel you are sharp with things increase it more..

bigbet1234 · Sep 8, 2009

Get the bonuses, for that matter get the lowest juice shops to start.

3 months living expenses isn't that much. If you overbet your bank you will go bust it's just a matter of time.

You may be able to do it for a little bit, but to think it will be long term, you're just kidding yourself.

GL

ProPokerPlayer · Sep 8, 2009

Honestly i dont think you have enough behind to do what u want to do. Ive tried it more than once but the pressure of working off that small a roll is just to much. You'll worry urself to death. Your going to have to find some reliable income just to be able to sleep at night...

bellyputter · Sep 8, 2009

The reason most people don't have a fighting chance at sports wagering, is because they are undercapitalized. It will cloud your mind. Trust me, I have been there and done that dance.

valueman · Sep 8, 2009

Having read more of your posts it is clear you don't have the discipline to win long term. I'm sorry if it offends but better someone tell you now than you do your last 3 months of living expenses.

Get a job would be my advice and give up the betting. It really isn't much fun long term losing. Fantasy betting is a cheaper alternative if you need to have some sort of involvement.

OnWisconsin · Sep 8, 2009

valueman said:
Having read more of your posts it is clear you don't have the discipline to win long term. I'm sorry if it offends but better someone tell you now than you do your last 3 months of living expenses.

Get a job would be my advice and give up the betting. It really isn't much fun long term losing. Fantasy betting is a cheaper alternative if you need to have some sort of involvement.

anything i post after midnight is more likely written in a state of inebriation as my dinner cooks.

that being said, i have gotten better discipline wise as far as not betting just to have action. right now i'm trying to find a balance of risk and roi. i have given up on capping sports -- there is nothing worse than spending a lot of time studying and thinking you have a solid play and then watching it go up in smoke. as far as capping, some people have it and some don't.

i'm not going to fall off the face of the earth if i'm not successful in this endeavour, although i will be disappointed. i'm thinking the best way to go for me right now is just to bet 5 games a week at maybe 5 to 7%. gambling is certainly easier when you know for sure you have a paycheck coming every two weeks. finding it difficult to take a big stand when you know you have no reliable source of income except for your own decisions.

thanks for the tips so far. seems like it always comes down to the same advice.

ok

Search

OnWisconsin

Banned

valueman

New member

OnWisconsin

Banned

valueman

New member

OnWisconsin

Banned

djmatt

New member

gynecologist

Banned

bigbet1234

Home of the Cincinnati Criminals.

ProPokerPlayer

I'll be in the Bar..With my head on the Bar

bellyputter

Member

valueman

New member

OnWisconsin

Banned

Forum statistics

Share this page