This is common knowledge to many - but done for novices.
The home dog is the best bet you can make in baseball.
Matchbook is the best book to bet at in Baseball.
Let me illustrate.
Below are the results if you were to bet every single home dog of every game each year since 2004:
<!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr><td>SU:</td> <td>2027-2435 (-0.7 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: +125 / -136</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: +$5,460 / -$27,465</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: +1.2% / -4.5%</td></tr></tbody></table>
By year (2004-2009):
<table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr><td>SU:</td> <td>347-458 (-1.0 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: +132 / -144</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: -$660 / -$3,460</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: -0.8% / -3.0%</td></tr></tbody></table><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr><td>SU:</td> <td>331-410 (-0.7 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: +128 / -139</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: +$825 / -$4,445</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: +1.1% / -4.3%</td></tr></tbody></table><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr><td>SU:</td> <td>388-429 (-0.4 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: +124 / -135</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: +$4,375 / -$8,670</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: +5.4% / -7.9%</td></tr></tbody></table><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr><td>SU:</td> <td>360-430 (-0.9 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: +123 / -134</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: +$475 / -$4,220</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: +0.6% / -4.0%</td></tr></tbody></table><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr><td>SU:</td> <td>325-369 (-0.7 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: +121 / -132</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: +$1,600 / -$4,985</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: +2.3% / -5.4%</td></tr></tbody></table><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr><td>SU:</td> <td>276-339 (-0.7 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: +122 / -132</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: -$1,155 / -$1,685</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: -1.9% / -2.1%</td></tr></tbody></table>
Every year except for the first year and the last year, you see a profit. However, this can be improved drastically. For the novice bettors, allow me to introduce Matchbook - home of the .01 line.
The average line is around .11 or 11% on any dog. This means that any game you bet on, you're giving the books 5.5% when you lose. However in Matchbook, you give .01, or 1%. Matchbook nets .5% when you lose.
Being an exchange, they also have commission. This is 1%. However this can easily be avoided, even used to your advantage when you use the OFFER side of the exchange. When you offer, not only do you avoid paying the 1%, but Matchbook pays you .2%! You're not even playing a .01 line, rather a .008 line.
Now, how how does this benefit us? Lets take the results from the home dogs the past 6 years, use math and calculate the "Matchbook line" (.008), and how it would change the bottom line on home dogs.
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="236" width="658"><col style="width: 29pt;" width="38"> <col style="width: 21pt;" span="2" width="28"> <col style="width: 37pt;" width="49"> <col style="width: 40pt;" width="53"> <col style="width: 42pt;" width="56"> <col style="width: 56pt;" span="2" width="74"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 29pt;" align="left" height="20" width="38">YEAR</td> <td style="width: 21pt;" align="left" width="28">W</td> <td style="width: 21pt;" align="left" width="28">L</td> <td style="width: 37pt;" align="left" width="49">oldLAY</td> <td style="width: 40pt;" align="left" width="53">oldOPP</td> <td style="width: 42pt;" align="left" width="56">newLAY</td> <td style="width: 56pt;" align="left" width="74">oldNET</td> <td style="width: 56pt;" align="left" width="74">newNET</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">2004</td> <td align="left">347</td> <td align="left">458</td> <td align="left">132</td> <td align="left">-144</td> <td align="left">138.4</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 4.00 </td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 2,224.80 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">2005</td> <td align="left">331</td> <td align="left">410</td> <td align="left">128</td> <td align="left">-139</td> <td align="left">133.9</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 1,368.00 </td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 3,320.90 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">2006</td> <td align="left">338</td> <td align="left">429</td> <td align="left">124</td> <td align="left">-135</td> <td align="left">129.9</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ (988.00)</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 1,006.20 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">2007</td> <td align="left">360</td> <td align="left">430</td> <td align="left">123</td> <td align="left">-134</td> <td align="left">128.9</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 1,280.00 </td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 3,404.00 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">2008</td> <td align="left">325</td> <td align="left">369</td> <td align="left">121</td> <td align="left">-132</td> <td align="left">126.9</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 2,425.00 </td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 4,342.50 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">2009</td> <td align="left">276</td> <td align="left">339</td> <td align="left">122</td> <td align="left">-132</td> <td align="left">127.4</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ (228.00)</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 1,262.40 </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
On average, there is nearly a $2000 increase in the NET when playing a .008 line instead of a .11 line over the course of the season. Per play you're saving $2.65 in money that would normally go to a book.
People ask the question on the forum "I just want to make 10-20%, what is the best way to do this with low risk"? This is it. You're not hitting bad lines at books that will ban you calling you a "steam bettor", rather you're at an exchange. Every single year doing this at Matchbook would net you at least 10 units. On average, you net 26 units in Baseball, using a simple strategy.
The home dog is the best bet you can make in baseball.
Matchbook is the best book to bet at in Baseball.
Let me illustrate.
Below are the results if you were to bet every single home dog of every game each year since 2004:
<!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr><td>SU:</td> <td>2027-2435 (-0.7 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: +125 / -136</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: +$5,460 / -$27,465</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: +1.2% / -4.5%</td></tr></tbody></table>
By year (2004-2009):
<table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr><td>SU:</td> <td>347-458 (-1.0 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: +132 / -144</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: -$660 / -$3,460</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: -0.8% / -3.0%</td></tr></tbody></table><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr><td>SU:</td> <td>331-410 (-0.7 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: +128 / -139</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: +$825 / -$4,445</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: +1.1% / -4.3%</td></tr></tbody></table><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr><td>SU:</td> <td>388-429 (-0.4 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: +124 / -135</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: +$4,375 / -$8,670</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: +5.4% / -7.9%</td></tr></tbody></table><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr><td>SU:</td> <td>360-430 (-0.9 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: +123 / -134</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: +$475 / -$4,220</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: +0.6% / -4.0%</td></tr></tbody></table><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr><td>SU:</td> <td>325-369 (-0.7 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: +121 / -132</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: +$1,600 / -$4,985</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: +2.3% / -5.4%</td></tr></tbody></table><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr><td>SU:</td> <td>276-339 (-0.7 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: +122 / -132</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: -$1,155 / -$1,685</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: -1.9% / -2.1%</td></tr></tbody></table>
Every year except for the first year and the last year, you see a profit. However, this can be improved drastically. For the novice bettors, allow me to introduce Matchbook - home of the .01 line.
The average line is around .11 or 11% on any dog. This means that any game you bet on, you're giving the books 5.5% when you lose. However in Matchbook, you give .01, or 1%. Matchbook nets .5% when you lose.
Being an exchange, they also have commission. This is 1%. However this can easily be avoided, even used to your advantage when you use the OFFER side of the exchange. When you offer, not only do you avoid paying the 1%, but Matchbook pays you .2%! You're not even playing a .01 line, rather a .008 line.
Now, how how does this benefit us? Lets take the results from the home dogs the past 6 years, use math and calculate the "Matchbook line" (.008), and how it would change the bottom line on home dogs.
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="236" width="658"><col style="width: 29pt;" width="38"> <col style="width: 21pt;" span="2" width="28"> <col style="width: 37pt;" width="49"> <col style="width: 40pt;" width="53"> <col style="width: 42pt;" width="56"> <col style="width: 56pt;" span="2" width="74"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 29pt;" align="left" height="20" width="38">YEAR</td> <td style="width: 21pt;" align="left" width="28">W</td> <td style="width: 21pt;" align="left" width="28">L</td> <td style="width: 37pt;" align="left" width="49">oldLAY</td> <td style="width: 40pt;" align="left" width="53">oldOPP</td> <td style="width: 42pt;" align="left" width="56">newLAY</td> <td style="width: 56pt;" align="left" width="74">oldNET</td> <td style="width: 56pt;" align="left" width="74">newNET</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">2004</td> <td align="left">347</td> <td align="left">458</td> <td align="left">132</td> <td align="left">-144</td> <td align="left">138.4</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 4.00 </td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 2,224.80 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">2005</td> <td align="left">331</td> <td align="left">410</td> <td align="left">128</td> <td align="left">-139</td> <td align="left">133.9</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 1,368.00 </td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 3,320.90 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">2006</td> <td align="left">338</td> <td align="left">429</td> <td align="left">124</td> <td align="left">-135</td> <td align="left">129.9</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ (988.00)</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 1,006.20 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">2007</td> <td align="left">360</td> <td align="left">430</td> <td align="left">123</td> <td align="left">-134</td> <td align="left">128.9</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 1,280.00 </td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 3,404.00 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">2008</td> <td align="left">325</td> <td align="left">369</td> <td align="left">121</td> <td align="left">-132</td> <td align="left">126.9</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 2,425.00 </td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 4,342.50 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">2009</td> <td align="left">276</td> <td align="left">339</td> <td align="left">122</td> <td align="left">-132</td> <td align="left">127.4</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ (228.00)</td> <td class="xl63" align="left"> $ 1,262.40 </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
On average, there is nearly a $2000 increase in the NET when playing a .008 line instead of a .11 line over the course of the season. Per play you're saving $2.65 in money that would normally go to a book.
People ask the question on the forum "I just want to make 10-20%, what is the best way to do this with low risk"? This is it. You're not hitting bad lines at books that will ban you calling you a "steam bettor", rather you're at an exchange. Every single year doing this at Matchbook would net you at least 10 units. On average, you net 26 units in Baseball, using a simple strategy.
