(1-0) +.5 units
Lucky with the first win but I'll gladly take it. Got one play for now and may have another one later on. The juice is high which is to be expected in these types of bets so always bet responsibly, if there is such a thing.
Play 1. "No score" KC/Clev 1st Inning Risking 2.90 to win 2 units
This play fits all 4 of the rules I use for these type of prop bets.
Rule 1 - Good pitching
If there is one thing to worry about in this match up it would be with Cleveland's offense ( 6th Best in AL). I am not worried for two main reasons. Sizemore is out for the season and Greinke is in. For those who don't follow the Royals at all ( 99% of everyone) Greinke has been on fire. He has given up 1 run since his monster outing of 15Ks over 8 innings against these same Indians. Since then he has given up 1 run over the last 3 games and is 2-0 with a 2.39 ERA against the Indians this season.
On the other side Masterson is not as bad as his 4-7 record indicates. Since he has been aquired by the Indians he has pitched very well in Cleveland giving up 1 earned run since he has been there ( 3 starts at home). He is not a good road pitcher but has been very comfortable in his new home. I think he carries that on tonight and holds the Royals for at least 1 inning.
Rule 2 - Play with struggling offenses
If it wasn't for the Indians being ranked 6th in the AL in total offense and Kansas's recent winning streak this would be a 3 or 4 unit play. With Sizemore out I feel a lot better about this bet and KC is still KC which I also expect to return to form tonight. Cleveland's mighty offense has also struggled recently putting up only 5 runs total in the past 3 games ( all losses). It is very important to note that KC has found a little mojo in recent games coming into this matchup with a 4 game winning streak and scoring 7, 5, 7, 6 runs respectively in those games. Once again the reason this is a 2 unit play and not 3 or 4. Please note the last 3 games KC played was at Detroit which is much more of a hitter's park than in Cleveland. I hope Masterson cools some of those bats at least for the first inning.
Rule 3 - Play in pitcher's parks
Game is in Cleveland which is ranked 29/30 on my list of batter's parks. Nothing more to elaborate with here so I'll move on.
Rule 4 - Trends of the week and the baseball Gods
As I stated earlier I feel these next few days have a lot less scoring in the first inning. Once again I cannot prove this with any facts but I do honestly believe the baseball Gods will make this so. Bash all you want at me but the early game confirmed my pagan superstitions. How else does a team get 3 walks and 3 stolen bases in an inning and not score a single run???? Anyway most will think this is complete BS which is cool with me but this bet fits my rules so I'm playing.
One last thing that does scare me is that the books have on another prop bet ( 1st team to score 1st ) for KC at -175. This is because of 3 reasons. 1.) KC bats first 2.) Past 4 games KC offense has been en fuego, well, at least by KC standards 3.) Most importantly Greinke is on the mound. I am hoping reason 3 is for this extremely high juice but just for a perspective the Dodgers, who also bat first, are -135 for this same bet. Anyway good luck with your bet and once again this is a 2 unit bet instead of a normally 4 unit bet for the above reasons
Best of luck with all of your bets tonight
Lucky with the first win but I'll gladly take it. Got one play for now and may have another one later on. The juice is high which is to be expected in these types of bets so always bet responsibly, if there is such a thing.
Play 1. "No score" KC/Clev 1st Inning Risking 2.90 to win 2 units
This play fits all 4 of the rules I use for these type of prop bets.
Rule 1 - Good pitching
If there is one thing to worry about in this match up it would be with Cleveland's offense ( 6th Best in AL). I am not worried for two main reasons. Sizemore is out for the season and Greinke is in. For those who don't follow the Royals at all ( 99% of everyone) Greinke has been on fire. He has given up 1 run since his monster outing of 15Ks over 8 innings against these same Indians. Since then he has given up 1 run over the last 3 games and is 2-0 with a 2.39 ERA against the Indians this season.
On the other side Masterson is not as bad as his 4-7 record indicates. Since he has been aquired by the Indians he has pitched very well in Cleveland giving up 1 earned run since he has been there ( 3 starts at home). He is not a good road pitcher but has been very comfortable in his new home. I think he carries that on tonight and holds the Royals for at least 1 inning.
Rule 2 - Play with struggling offenses
If it wasn't for the Indians being ranked 6th in the AL in total offense and Kansas's recent winning streak this would be a 3 or 4 unit play. With Sizemore out I feel a lot better about this bet and KC is still KC which I also expect to return to form tonight. Cleveland's mighty offense has also struggled recently putting up only 5 runs total in the past 3 games ( all losses). It is very important to note that KC has found a little mojo in recent games coming into this matchup with a 4 game winning streak and scoring 7, 5, 7, 6 runs respectively in those games. Once again the reason this is a 2 unit play and not 3 or 4. Please note the last 3 games KC played was at Detroit which is much more of a hitter's park than in Cleveland. I hope Masterson cools some of those bats at least for the first inning.
Rule 3 - Play in pitcher's parks
Game is in Cleveland which is ranked 29/30 on my list of batter's parks. Nothing more to elaborate with here so I'll move on.
Rule 4 - Trends of the week and the baseball Gods
As I stated earlier I feel these next few days have a lot less scoring in the first inning. Once again I cannot prove this with any facts but I do honestly believe the baseball Gods will make this so. Bash all you want at me but the early game confirmed my pagan superstitions. How else does a team get 3 walks and 3 stolen bases in an inning and not score a single run???? Anyway most will think this is complete BS which is cool with me but this bet fits my rules so I'm playing.
One last thing that does scare me is that the books have on another prop bet ( 1st team to score 1st ) for KC at -175. This is because of 3 reasons. 1.) KC bats first 2.) Past 4 games KC offense has been en fuego, well, at least by KC standards 3.) Most importantly Greinke is on the mound. I am hoping reason 3 is for this extremely high juice but just for a perspective the Dodgers, who also bat first, are -135 for this same bet. Anyway good luck with your bet and once again this is a 2 unit bet instead of a normally 4 unit bet for the above reasons
Best of luck with all of your bets tonight
