Results with Accuscore system.. 156% ROI, Statistically significant??

ljump12 · Sep 16, 2009

Recently I created a script that automatically compares Accuscore's predictions to the lines offered at Matchbook at a certain time in the morning.

If it finds value in one side or another it automatically places a bet on that side. and then emails me which games it bet. Takes approximately 0 minutes each day...

I started off small with ~$200 for this season $10-15/game, but am considering significantly upping the capitol next season (~2000 / 100 per game).

My question is do you believe these results are significant enough to warrant the increase in capital, or is it possible they were just (luck/fluke).

I have attached an excel file in which one sheet contains results of games, and the other contains a chart..

Any/all input appreciated.

ljump12 · Sep 17, 2009

No thoughts?

BadCo · Sep 17, 2009

You probably should of posted the plays from the get go to attract interest.

Actually this room is dead since football started.

Can you post the remainder of the season as it sounds great.

No human element involved,all computer generated.

buffettgambler · Sep 17, 2009

Looks like your ROI is 4.6%. It appears you were calculating return on initial capitial.

ljump12 · Sep 17, 2009

buffettgambler said:
Looks like your ROI is 4.6%. It appears you were calculating return on initial capitial.

If i invested $200, and had profiit of $355 (Total Account = $555) would that not be 155% ROI?

As for posting the plays every day, I don't really have time to. Part of this system is that it automatically bets for me, kind of a set it and forget it thing.

If you would like, leave your email here, and I will set it up to forward you the picks at 9AM every Morning.

buffettgambler · Sep 17, 2009

ljump12 said:
If i invested $200, and had profiit of $355 (Total Account = $555) would that not be 155% ROI?

As for posting the plays every day, I don't really have time to. Part of this system is that it automatically bets for me, kind of a set it and forget it thing.

If you would like, leave your email here, and I will set it up to forward you the picks at 9AM every Morning.

No, your ROI is the return on the aggregate amount risked on all bets.

ljump12 · Sep 17, 2009

buffettgambler said:
No, your ROI is the return on the aggregate amount risked on all bets.

From Wikipedia (Obviously the most credible source):

In finance, rate of return (ROR), also known as return on investment (ROI), rate of profit or sometimes just return, is the ratio of money gained or lost (whether realized or unrealized) on an investment relative to the amount of money invested.

Amount invested.. = $200 ... Money gained = $355...

355/200 = 1.55 or 155%...

I guess we have different definitions of the word.

ljump12 · Sep 21, 2009

bump...

bsinger · Sep 21, 2009

i would b interested to see it. Bartcjsinger@aol.com.
Much appreciated!

Profit01 · Sep 21, 2009

you could be on to somthing

Doug · Sep 21, 2009

ljump12 said:
Recently I created a script that automatically compares Accuscore's predictions to the lines offered at Matchbook at a certain time in the morning.

If it finds value in one side or another it automatically places a bet on that side. and then emails me which games it bet. Takes approximately 0 minutes each day...

I started off small with ~$200 for this season $10-15/game, but am considering significantly upping the capitol next season (~2000 / 100 per game).

My question is do you believe these results are significant enough to warrant the increase in capital, or is it possible they were just (luck/fluke).

I have attached an excel file in which one sheet contains results of games, and the other contains a chart..

Any/all input appreciated.

How do you set up a computer to autobet at MB ?

ljump12 · Sep 22, 2009

Doug said:
How do you set up a computer to autobet at MB ?

Matchbook has a developers API that they don't really talk about -- I have access to it, and so I can write programs that interface with matchbook.

halekulani · Sep 23, 2009

ljump12 said:
From Wikipedia (Obviously the most credible source):

In finance, rate of return (ROR), also known as return on investment (ROI), rate of profit or sometimes just return, is the ratio of money gained or lost (whether realized or unrealized) on an investment relative to the amount of money invested.

Amount invested.. = $200 ... Money gained = $355...

355/200 = 1.55 or 155%...

I guess we have different definitions of the word.

there was no point in citing wikipedia because that clearly isn't the issue

the problem lies in what you defined to be your "investment"
investment != bankroll
your bet is your investment because that's the only amount that can return anything. the bankroll that is not bet is not part of your investment.

ds123 · Sep 23, 2009

halekulani said:
there was no point in citing wikipedia because that clearly isn't the issue

the problem lies in what you defined to be your "investment"
investment != bankroll
your bet is your investment because that's the only amount that can return anything. the bankroll that is not bet is not part of your investment.

Ya, you can't really use your starting bankroll size to gauge profit here.

Someone betting $10/game with a $100K roll will barely show any return at all. Whereas someone with a $100 roll betting $10/game may show huge #'s of he's up. How much you have sitting in your account doesn't mean diddly squat.

ljump12 · Sep 23, 2009

I see your point --

However, I would say someone betting $10/ game with $1000 bankroll that made say $500 would have a 50%ROI... However, they can withstand the variance much better than someone that is fully invested for $200 betting $10/game. (250% ROI).

The key is to maximize ROI, while making sure you are protected against the inherent variance of gambling.

For example: If someone were to give me $1000 and say -- I want a 200% ROI in one year. It wouldn't matter what I did with it, as long as in one year I gave them back $3000.

This is how I view my system - Over the baseball season I had a 150% ROI. When it started I invested $200, and when it ended I recieved back $500. So my ROI over the season was 150%.

Don't mean to argue -- just trying to explain my POV.

ljump12 · Sep 23, 2009

halekulani said:
there was no point in citing wikipedia because that clearly isn't the issue

the problem lies in what you defined to be your "investment"
investment != bankroll
your bet is your investment because that's the only amount that can return anything. the bankroll that is not bet is not part of your investment.

If you invest in a Hedge Fund. The hedge fund may do anything with your money (depending on the fund), they may Short stocks, buy real-estate, Buy gold, or even -- keep part of it in cash if they feel the timing is not right. Just because part of your investment is in cash and is making no money, does not mean that you did not invest it.

CTP · Sep 23, 2009

Looks like you reached your peak at all star break. I find the same thing every year. Care to share what accuscore has to offer or where to look?

halekulani · Sep 23, 2009

ljump12 said:
If you invest in a Hedge Fund. The hedge fund may do anything with your money (depending on the fund), they may Short stocks, buy real-estate, Buy gold, or even -- keep part of it in cash if they feel the timing is not right. Just because part of your investment is in cash and is making no money, does not mean that you did not invest it.

yeah but what does a hedge fund have to do with the topic at hand?

you're basing what you consider to be ROI entirely off of bankroll size and have made profit pretty much irrelevant.

go ahead and use what you think is "ROI" but to everyone else your numbers mean nothing.

http://www.pocketfives.com/poker-forums/7/sng-roi-bankroll-question-17553/p/724238
a basic example of how you calculate ROI in another field of gambling
it's the same reasoning
what you bet vs. what you profit
once you throw bankroll into the equation you make it a useless number.

nuckers · Sep 23, 2009

i'd like to see what it does too.

mikeymike@fastmail.fm

ljump12 · Sep 23, 2009

halekulani said:
yeah but what does a hedge fund have to do with the topic at hand?

you're basing what you consider to be ROI entirely off of bankroll size and have made profit pretty much irrelevant.

go ahead and use what you think is "ROI" but to everyone else your numbers mean nothing.

http://www.pocketfives.com/poker-forums/7/sng-roi-bankroll-question-17553/p/724238
a basic example of how you calculate ROI in another field of gambling
it's the same reasoning
what you bet vs. what you profit
once you throw bankroll into the equation you make it a useless number.

yea, but what does poker have to do with the topic at hand. I would argue that a hedge fund is much more closely related to what we are doing here than poker. I've played a lot of poker and understand that they calculate it differently there.

I work at a trading firm, day-trading in equities - so I guess i'm biased by that way of thinking.