something to consider i would like as many replies to this as possible

chuckfranklin · Sep 21, 2009

You know guys with these forums and all now you hear so much about the "general public" well tonight there is no question who the general public is on as i would say 8 out of every 10 gamblers in the world are betting colts and over.

However I strongly feel those 2 that are betting miami and under are your wiseguys and from what i see in the service plays most touts have miami and under. when i say wiseguys i mean guys from all the different forums i visit daily. Most of the cappers i respect are on miami 16 out of 19 to be exact.

I also feel that these 2 of every 10 gamblers taking miami tonight are much BIGGER gamblers meaning bet more $ on game then the said 8 of 10 betting colts. With this being said is this still a trap game? I feel like most sportsbooks tonight will have many more indy bettors however i feel there will be more money bet on miami.

I just look at it this way if i am a book and have 20 bettors and 19 call in and bet $100 on indy however that one guy bets $2500 on miami who am i gonna pull for?

Just something to think about to those of you who love betting against the public just something else to think about. both dogs covered last monday night.

FairWarning · Sep 21, 2009

I really don't pay attention to the general public % on gameday. The only moves I really follow are the first moves and the last 20 minutes. I don't follow much of the service plays, since many services just copy another and spin it as their own.

RobFunk · Sep 21, 2009

I have always believed that the one sport the public tends to be right is the NFL. Not trying to state a fact, just what I think.

NBA is one sport the public is almost always WRONG.

Enfuego · Sep 21, 2009

RobFunk said:
I have always believed that the one sport the public tends to be right is the NFL. Not trying to state a fact, just what I think.

NBA is one sport the public is almost always WRONG.

The books make more money during the NFL season then any other sport. How does the public win if this is the case?

FairWarning · Sep 21, 2009

RobFunk said:
I have always believed that the one sport the public tends to be right is the NFL. Not trying to state a fact, just what I think.

NBA is one sport the public is almost always WRONG.

Agree on the NBA. I would say non-tv college foots and hoops, the public is right on those too.

RobFunk · Sep 21, 2009

Enfuego said:
The books make more money during the NFL season then any other sport. How does the public win if this is the case?

A lot of bettors don't use their head. Teasers, parlays, panic and chase plays etc. Lot of CRAZY money being thrown around.

But as far as just actually picking the right side before the weekend madness begins, I will stand by what I said.
The majority usually have that game picked CORRECT.

CujoLatte · Sep 21, 2009

Go on wagerline.com ...I think it may be covers or something now, but I know www.wagerline.com still works. They have a consensus on each game and dammed if when the public is real heavy on one team 7 out of 10 times they do NOT cover. Doesn't matter what sport. Check it out!
Sometimes I just bet against the public for that reason only without even researching the game.

:shaking:

CapNCash · Sep 21, 2009

public wins 50% of the time, might as well flip a coin

5teamparlay · Sep 21, 2009

public wins 50% of the time

not so fast...

Check single game prime time situations, lines are inflated...
Check the last 10 superbowls and national BCS game and see who covered......

this is a single game prime time situation..

CujoLatte · Sep 21, 2009

5teamparlay said:
not so fast...

Check single game prime time situations, lines are inflated...
Check the last 10 superbowls and national BCS game and see who covered......

this is a single game prime time situation..

Good Point 5team!

Akillies · Sep 21, 2009

FairWarning said:
I really don't pay attention to the general public % on gameday. The only moves I really follow are the first moves and the last 20 minutes. I don't follow much of the service plays, since many services just copy another and spin it as their own.

nailed it.
i agree with the op's play, but disagree with his reasoning. i have a fairly reliable source that gives 60% on indy, just because someone bets large dont make them any more likely to be on the correct side, and how do you even know which side they are on? maybe they bet even more on the other side at a bettor #

chuckfranklin · Sep 21, 2009

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had that feeling here i am pretty much knowing all the MONEY is on miami and under and i still fall in the under trap.

joe public wins. wiseguys and sharps lose back most of what they won yesterday.

how about that miami play call 20-20 on 3rd and 6 from the indy 29 run up the middle and then on the last drive like they had all night taking there time.

miami dominated this game in almost every aspect but your final score. best of luck to you all in the future.

all i was saying is if the touts and smart forum posters are on same side watch out and maybe consider betting with joe public. If touts and smart forum posters are opposite i like the smart forum guys opinion. And ofcourse if touts and joe public are on same side go the other way.

Thats just my 2 cents. I fuccked myself by betting with touts and wiseguys alike on the under.

Enfuego · Sep 21, 2009

chuck franklin said:
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had that feeling here i am pretty much knowing all the MONEY is on miami and under and i still fall in the under trap.

joe public wins. wiseguys and sharps lose back most of what they won yesterday.

how about that miami play call 20-20 on 3rd and 6 from the indy 29 run up the middle and then on the last drive like they had all night taking there time.

miami dominated this game in almost every aspect but your final score. best of luck to you all in the future.

all i was saying is if the touts and smart forum posters are on same side watch out and maybe consider betting with joe public. If touts and smart forum posters are opposite i like the smart forum guys opinion. And ofcourse if touts and joe public are on same side go the other way.

Thats just my 2 cents. I fuccked myself by betting with touts and wiseguys alike on the under.

Public was on Miami? Uh, no.

CapNCash · Sep 21, 2009

5teamparlay said:
not so fast...

Check single game prime time situations, lines are inflated...
Check the last 10 superbowls and national BCS game and see who covered......

this is a single game prime time situation..

so super bowls and bcs championship game are same as MNF?

VIEJODINOSAUR · Sep 22, 2009

CapNCash said:
so super bowls and bcs championship game are same as MNF?

Sort of....except most players don't play the MNF game until the day of the game...:toast:

sumday · Sep 22, 2009

As I said in a different thread, ignore who the public is or isn't on or which capper is on what side. I had made up my mind about the Colts along with my other picks this Sunday and I didn't give a crap where the public was. Don't let it influence you.

jordan17 · Sep 22, 2009

I call Bullshit!
Nfl is where u fade the public!
public just got lucky today...

hno:

sumday · Sep 22, 2009

Public money never been an influence on me. Never will be.

jordan17 · Sep 22, 2009

Just keep playing like a Sqaure n the Nfl...trust me it'll bite u n the ass...why am I even responding, this is a square site anyway...

sumday · Sep 22, 2009

jordan17 said:
Just keep playing like a Sqaure n the Nfl...trust me it'll bite u n the ass...why am I even responding, this is a square site anyway...

I'm a square? Hmm..Don't know about that...Anyways, didn't you see my season long thread last season? Kicked ass.

Guess what? The new squares are the wannabe sharps...make sense?

Anyways, good luck.

I was just stating my opinion that the public money doesn't influence my bets. Some people look at it some don't. You don't have to get all snide about it. Relax.