think come this time next year we'll be wondering if the march lows are gonna hold
think this top will continue to be somewhat rounded and try to drag as many people back in that "missed the boat" before the next plundge comes...who knows when or how high it goes before we top...but i'm very convinced 12 months from now we'll be lower.....
printing presses not working joe...at least not yet....explain to me how we can inflate with M2 going flat
think this top will continue to be somewhat rounded and try to drag as many people back in that "missed the boat" before the next plundge comes...who knows when or how high it goes before we top...but i'm very convinced 12 months from now we'll be lower.....
printing presses not working joe...at least not yet....explain to me how we can inflate with M2 going flat
i don't think they know...they kinda just like us here trying to figure it out the whole inflation/deflation issue
as the two conflicting statements (one in the worried about inflation camp, and the other in the worried about deflation camp) by two fed governors today show you
but i agree at this point what they've done won't work to stop the deflation from returning here soon most likely
and seeing the flattening of M2 is key to this thinking
as the two conflicting statements (one in the worried about inflation camp, and the other in the worried about deflation camp) by two fed governors today show you
but i agree at this point what they've done won't work to stop the deflation from returning here soon most likely
and seeing the flattening of M2 is key to this thinking
Oh they know! You know how they know?? They did this shit on purpose that's why! All in the name of finally carrying out their NWO agenda. The inflation / deflation debate is just for the people to kick around just like the Dem / GOP debates are. It's all a mirage. MSM says look over here to the left while we are really getting fucked over to the right. I just don't buy for one second that the smartest people in the world never saw this coming. They will never be able to solve this quagmire. The system has to be rebuilt in the name of world peace...LOL.^<<^
Looking at a 20-year chart isnt going to give you a very good prediction of where the market is going. No one can predict the future, but look at this 2-year chart and you'll see the reverse head & shoulders I'm talking about. I'm not a huge chart person though, but the only way we go below 900 on the S&P is if we have a double-dip recession, and that wont be known until 1st or 2nd Q of 2010. That's a nice long-term chart, but I believe it's inaccurate. We'll see in December I guess. Here's the chart I've been using lately:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
U.S. Money Supply
Annualized Rates of Growth in Percentage Terms
<TABLE border=1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=154>
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=154>3 Month
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=154>6 Month
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=154>12 Month
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=154>MZM
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=154>-3.1
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=154>2.9
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=154>9.2
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=154>M-1
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=154>17.0
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=154>9.4
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=154>18.2
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=154>M-2
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=154>0.8
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=154>2.9
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=154>8.3
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Interpretation
On a year-over-year basis the money supply is still rising strongly. The Fed's effort to inflate its way out of this crisis is in full swing. Conventional and unconventional monetary measures - i.e. inflating like there is no tomorrow - are showing up in the statistics. And in my view, the Fed is laying the groundwork for inflation in the future.
The huge differences between M-1 and the other two aggregates in the last 3 months is probably due to shifts connected to the phase-out of some government guarantee programs.
Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E) and Dividend Yields
<TABLE border=1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=614><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=205>
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=205>P/E
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=205>Dividend Yield
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=205>S & P 500
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=205>154
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=205>2.4
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=205>NASDAQ 100
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=205>48
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=205>0.9
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=205>DAX
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=205>49
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=205>3.6
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=205>Eurostoxx
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=205>33
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=205>4.1
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=205>Nikkei 225
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=205>negative
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=205>1.8
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Interpretation
No matter how you look at it, the fundamental valuations of all major stock markets are very expensive. Valuation is not a short- or medium-term timing tool. But it is worth remembering that the long-term risk is still very high. It follows that we do need an exit strategy for our stock holdings. This is still not a time for buy and hold, but a time to hit and run.
200-Day-Moving Averages
<TABLE border=1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=307>S & P 500
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=307>up trend
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=307>NASDAQ
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=307>up trend
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=307>DAX
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=307>up trend
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=307>Eurostoxx
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=307>up trend
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=307>Nikkei
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=307>up trend
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Interpretation
The 200-day moving average is a slow technical analysis tool, and that's exactly its merit. It filters out the short-term noise and focuses on the larger picture. As long as the 200-day moving average is falling I am looking to sell rallies in its vicinity. When it is rising I am trying to buy the dips.
The 200-day moving averages of all major stock markets are clearly rising, thus confirming medium-term uptrends. The message of this simple and time-tested technical tool is unequivocally bullish right now.
NYSE Market Breadth New York Stock Exchange
<TABLE border=1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=307>Advance Decline Line
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=307>up trend, new highs confirmed
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=307>Advance Decline Volume Line
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=307>up trend, new highs confirmed
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Interpretation
Market breadth is an important tool that allows you to peek under the surface of the indices. The Advance Decline Volume Line did not confirm the June highs of the stock market. This negative divergence is just another sign of internal market weakness. However, both advance decline indicators are confirming the new highs in the NYSE index.
looking in the rear view window joe
yes you saw a big spike in money supply growth when fed was cutting rates and throwing tons of shit at it
but since march money supply has been flat or even falling
as it shows above mzm is minus for the previous 3 months
same thing happened in japan in 1990.....had a big growth rate at the beginning...as their central bank attempted to fight deflatoin......but eventually M2 growth rate fell down to 2% or so on annual average and has been there ever since....even though government continuously attempted to "stimulate" the economy and what not
anyway we'll have to keep our eyes on this.....maybe M2 and MZM/M3 growth rates will pick back up....but they've been flat basically since march
yes you saw a big spike in money supply growth when fed was cutting rates and throwing tons of shit at it
but since march money supply has been flat or even falling
as it shows above mzm is minus for the previous 3 months
same thing happened in japan in 1990.....had a big growth rate at the beginning...as their central bank attempted to fight deflatoin......but eventually M2 growth rate fell down to 2% or so on annual average and has been there ever since....even though government continuously attempted to "stimulate" the economy and what not
anyway we'll have to keep our eyes on this.....maybe M2 and MZM/M3 growth rates will pick back up....but they've been flat basically since march
Who Owns Congress?
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Well Mr. Destroyer, I'll give your theory this much:
S&P, DOW, & NASDAQ will have a 3-4% pull-back starting on Thursday 10/1, likely continuing through 10/9, we get a small positive bounce (1-2%), then continue further down until we bounce off of support at 1010-1015. I think October will likely be a semi-ugly and sideways trading month. Bull-market will have had it's rest and will resume towards the end of October, taking us higher for the remainder of the year.
However, I stand by my predictions that the S&P closes the year at least at 1100, but probably closer to 1200. I dont have predictions for the DOW / NASDAQ since I dont follow them as much ... though, I'm guessing DOW 10,500 and Nasdaq probably 2200.
S&P, DOW, & NASDAQ will have a 3-4% pull-back starting on Thursday 10/1, likely continuing through 10/9, we get a small positive bounce (1-2%), then continue further down until we bounce off of support at 1010-1015. I think October will likely be a semi-ugly and sideways trading month. Bull-market will have had it's rest and will resume towards the end of October, taking us higher for the remainder of the year.
However, I stand by my predictions that the S&P closes the year at least at 1100, but probably closer to 1200. I dont have predictions for the DOW / NASDAQ since I dont follow them as much ... though, I'm guessing DOW 10,500 and Nasdaq probably 2200.
My friend speaks to managers at Bessemer every week - here is his latest text
March lows are off the table. Slow grow, jobless recovery, 2-3:/: GDP, high consumer savings rate hampering spending and stifling economic rebound. Consumer bruised, economy doing ok but will take 1-2 years to get back to 3:/:+ GDP. GOOD TIMES coming, just not here yet. March test of lows unlikely. Waiting for retest is likely blindly playing dogs; sounds good until you realize ur account is zero. Being slightly contrarian is helpful; believing in the tooth fairy is fruitless. These perenial bears are right 1 out of 20 times and then they say I told you so. Where is the accountability for all the wrong forecasts
March lows are off the table. Slow grow, jobless recovery, 2-3:/: GDP, high consumer savings rate hampering spending and stifling economic rebound. Consumer bruised, economy doing ok but will take 1-2 years to get back to 3:/:+ GDP. GOOD TIMES coming, just not here yet. March test of lows unlikely. Waiting for retest is likely blindly playing dogs; sounds good until you realize ur account is zero. Being slightly contrarian is helpful; believing in the tooth fairy is fruitless. These perenial bears are right 1 out of 20 times and then they say I told you so. Where is the accountability for all the wrong forecasts
where it at now probably around the median ground for a while still as has been the case for a decade or so now
but me thinks good chance of another pretty sizable deflationary flush coming soon through 2010
cycle wise based on history valuations didn't get low enough in march.....so maybe we'll get there like we did in the 70s and early 80s....with a very long sideways type market with moderate earnings growth till we reach pretty damn undervalued levels
GL
but me thinks good chance of another pretty sizable deflationary flush coming soon through 2010
cycle wise based on history valuations didn't get low enough in march.....so maybe we'll get there like we did in the 70s and early 80s....with a very long sideways type market with moderate earnings growth till we reach pretty damn undervalued levels
GL
also the past decade should be showing the general public how big a ripoff buy and hold mutual fund type stuff is
if you want to go with a buy and hold strategy you much better off just buying a variety of necessity type multinational stocks that pay a decent divy....the expense fees on mutual funds really add up over the long haul
if you want to go with a buy and hold strategy you much better off just buying a variety of necessity type multinational stocks that pay a decent divy....the expense fees on mutual funds really add up over the long haul
