Playing parlays from a sheet at the bar

randyrohm · Sep 26, 2009

These parlays are printed on Tue and the line moves a lot. They pay terible odds and a push is a loss. Still I can find value because the line has moved a lot on a few games. Anybody else check the numbers on these parlays each week just to see if the stars align and you get a good card. This week was a good one. :dancefool

quantumleap · Sep 27, 2009

Ah yes. Reminds me of 1984 when I first started betting off these things. I didn't know they still existed.

It's good to know they are still around to take advantage of line movement even with the bad odds.

bellyputter · Sep 27, 2009

Cards(ties lose) that pay 6 for 1(3-teamer) 10 for 1(4-teamer) aren't worth it no matter how stale the lines are.

romecloneout · Sep 27, 2009

i play these every week and i would have went 6-6 in cfb if not for the houston/tech game whick i had houston -1 and guess what tie=L....always like playin the cards though lines are always off a few pts

D2bets · Sep 27, 2009

bellyputter said:
Cards(ties lose) that pay 6 for 1(3-teamer) 10 for 1(4-teamer) aren't worth it no matter how stale the lines are.

Why? If you find 3 games that moved enough then why not? Tie might not even be an issue if it's a .5 line anyway. If you can find 3 games where the line has moved 2-3 points then it looks strong to me.

bellyputter · Sep 27, 2009

D2bets said:
Why? If you find 3 games that moved enough then why not? Tie might not even be an issue if it's a .5 line anyway. If you can find 3 games where the line has moved 2-3 points then it looks strong to me.

Even if you are paying around 25% vig on a 3-teamer? True odds-- 8 FOR 1-- parlay card-- 6 FOR 1. If you didn't have to post up, it would be a different story.

BAGIANT · Sep 27, 2009

If 83% of the time the line means absolutely NOTHING, what difference does it make how stale they are. I guess stale lines never lose.

D2bets · Sep 27, 2009

bellyputter said:
Even if you are paying around 25% vig on a 3-teamer? True odds-- 8 FOR 1-- parlay card-- 6 FOR 1. If you didn't have to post up, it would be a different story.

True odds are 7-1 not 8-1. I don't see how posting up or not makes a bit of a difference to whether a bet is +EV or not.

D2bets · Sep 27, 2009

BAGIANT said:
If 83% of the time the line means absolutely NOTHING, what difference does it make how stale they are. I guess stale lines never lose.

The line always means something. 17% is not a lot to you? Just a few percent can be the difference between a long-term winner and a loser.

Doug · Sep 27, 2009

D2bets said:
True odds are 7-1 not 8-1. I don't see how posting up or not makes a bit of a difference to whether a bet is +EV or not.

8 FOR 1, and 7-1 are the same thing.

D2bets · Sep 27, 2009

Doug said:
8 FOR 1, and 7-1 are the same thing.

We were comparing to 6-1. If we're quoting 6-1 then we are talking about true odds being 7-1, not 8-1. That's what I'm saying. 6-1 is basically a -110 parlay. It's not as terrible as it sounds. If each play is better than 52.4% then you are in good shape. Stale lines can easily give you this.

Doug · Sep 27, 2009

D2bets said:
Why? If you find 3 games that moved enough then why not? Tie might not even be an issue if it's a .5 line anyway. If you can find 3 games where the line has moved 2-3 points then it looks strong to me.

sure it can be +EV, judge by Pinny lines.

It is sort of like a mini-teaser of a few points...if it crosses 3, it's probably decent.

bellyputter · Sep 27, 2009

D2bets said:
True odds are 7-1 not 8-1. I don't see how posting up or not makes a bit of a difference to whether a bet is +EV or not.

I said 8 FOR 1, not 8 TO 1. Posting up means around 12.5% off your bottom. A "bar card" pays 5 TO 1 on a 3-teamer, 9 TO 1 on a 4-teamer.

FairWarning · Sep 27, 2009

Still pretty tough to beat when the cards are -2 each side on Pk'-ems and totals of under 37/over 39.

SHARPNSTEADY · Sep 27, 2009

WOW.......I didn't even know those paper versions were still around! I remember passing them around in High School and that was 35 years ago. I also remember I was the only one picking the minimum 3 games while every one else was trying their hand at 8, 9, 10 ............going for the big score. Ha!

badbeat1015 · Sep 27, 2009

Play these every week.

Doug · Sep 27, 2009

bellyputter said:
I said 8 FOR 1, not 8 TO 1. Posting up means around 12.5% off your bottom. A "bar card" pays 5 TO 1 on a 3-teamer, 9 TO 1 on a 4-teamer.

Why, withdrawal fees ?

randyrohm · Sep 27, 2009

Make your last game (always a 4 teamer with me) one with a legit shot at a middle. Buy back half your projected winngs. It works.

Doug · Sep 27, 2009

all college, Randy ?

bellyputter · Sep 27, 2009

Doug said:
Why, withdrawal fees ?

Because your wager is pre-paid, if you win, it's part of the pay out. A $5 3-teamer gets back $30, or 6 for 1(25% vig). Trust me, it's a license to steal.