This myth of the "tout jinx" is one of the stupidest things I've ever seen on the forums

HinesWard86 · Sep 27, 2009

Cannot believe how many post and seem to believe in this garbage. Does the fact that a person is now picking as a tout rather than a poster change the quality or outcome of that person's plays? Absolutely not. Is there a causational link between going tout and losing? No.

This "tout jinx" or "tout curse" is really regression to the mean more than anything and I never see anyone post that. It's simple. When do people go tout? When they are in high demand, after a killer season where they hit 70%+ over a statistically insignificant number of games. Can anyone hit 70%+ long-term on sides or totals in a heavily bet sport? No, not at all. The fact that they suck afterwards is just statistical bounceback after their anomalous streak.

Santo · Sep 27, 2009

I agree with your first point, but your second is thus on shaky ground. How do you account for regression to the mean when every event is independent? Statistically, if they're a 50% capper then even if they go 70% over the course of the season, they should expect to go ~50% the next.

bellyputter · Sep 27, 2009

I disagree. I was in the tout business from 1976-86, and it can take a toll on you mentally. I hated being the constant scapegoat for people who had unrealistic wagering goals. I NEVER once failed to answer the phone(800 #) after a losing weekend. My stock answer. "Trust me, I lost more than you did." I was one of the few in this nasty business that actually had a conscience.

HacheMan · Sep 27, 2009

Hines, I believe they're meaning when the majority or large percentage of touts/services are on the same side...........

HinesWard86 · Sep 27, 2009

Even though every event is statistically independent, over a long enough period of time things do move towards a mean.

I can understand the fatigue aspect of it like BP mentioned and that is certainly a variable but I think for the majority of guys this isn't a problem.

Hache, what I am talking about is when posters on these sites go tout after a good year and then start losing, people call it "The Curse of the Tout" or some other vague, nonsensical rubbish.

patswin · Sep 27, 2009

agree

trytrytry · Sep 27, 2009

there is no regression to a mean using data from past events Hines..they are all independent...only a predicted regression to a mean going forward...

HacheMan · Sep 27, 2009

HinesWard86 said:
Hache, what I am talking about is when posters on these sites go tout after a good year and then start losing, people call it "The Curse of the Tout" or some other vague, nonsensical rubbish.

Ahhhh.......Ok Hines

In that case, I would have to agree.
Kind of ridiculous.......

wilheim · Sep 27, 2009

Turning tout places a different kind of pressure on a handicapper. Once you have any kind of customer base you are responsible for the financial fate (gambling wise) of a substantial amount of players than just yourself. Making wagers for yourself and releasing a play that 20 persons are going to wager on because of your say, not to mention they paid for the play, are two very different kinds of pressure.

wil.

Sugarbear · Sep 27, 2009

Two of my favorite posters in the same thread. Both MIA in my book.

Hines Ward whats up? I have not come across you in a while.

Santo! Where have you been? We need some advantage bettor post out of you. Your the best in the buisness at revealing that mind set.

Wil nailed it. It would have taken me a lot longer to say the same thing.

Its not a curse. Its a relization that you cant win enough for anyone and that no one wants to give you credit for anything no matter how much you win. It will forever be from your customer base that I bet 500 on the loser and 200 on the winner.

If there is a curse its trying to live up to a past reputation and not adjusting to the times. Most touts stay with the same old formula and never switch. When things go bad thats it.

Once you learn what the real truths of the buisness are. Its not so bad.

TomGshotput · Sep 27, 2009

Once people start paying you money for your picks, there is much less incentive to actually pick winners. Whether it wins or loses, you've already been paid. The effort that would go into actually studying the games must go into sales

HinesWard86 · Sep 27, 2009

Hope you are doing well Sugarbear.

Maybe I am not putting enough importance into the fatigue/exasperation factor as I should.

Santo · Sep 27, 2009

Thanks Sugarbear -- I'm less involved offshore these days, still playing a bit but pursuing other career opportunities, but I still drop by when I get a chance.

Hope you are doing well also.

Mr.Smith · Sep 27, 2009

almost all touts are losing handicappers who either market hype or in the case of forums had a short term hot streak, developed followers, then started charging, but were completely untalented handicappers.

predictable results follow if you pay a coin flipper who got hot on a forum for a while

Sugarbear · Sep 27, 2009

TomGshotput said:
Once people start paying you money for your picks, there is much less incentive to actually pick winners. Whether it wins or loses, you've already been paid. The effort that would go into actually studying the games must go into sales

Incorrect statement. Its just as hard to pick a loser of a game as it is to pick the winner. If anything there is less incentive to bet your own games.
Your clients bet is your bet and you live and die with it all the same.

Hard to address the sales side since I work in true servicedom and this thread is more pointed toward internet servicedom and the more ego driven than handicapper/tout driven.

I will continue to say this. Think the opposite of how you think things actually work and you will then know how it works.

Start with winners dont pay. Losers do.

Sugarbear · Sep 27, 2009

Santo said:
Thanks Sugarbear -- I'm less involved offshore these days, still playing a bit but pursuing other career opportunities, but I still drop by when I get a chance.

Hope you are doing well also.

No complaints Santo and HW. Things are picking up very well in fact I think. Believe it or not, I am in the process of trying to get sportsbook stories from the 90's made into a book. Will be awhile yet, if at all, so keep your fingers crossed for me.

This myth of the "tout jinx" is one of the stupidest things I've ever seen on the forums

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