May add later.
Twins/Yankees Over 9.5 -101
Medium
This is not a good match up for Blackburn, a pitcher whose derivative numbers are worse than his surface numbers. His FIP is over a third higher than his ERA, while his well hit ratio and BABIP also suggest he is not as good as he appears on the surface. Blackburn also seriously regressed during the second half of the season, and despite being able to put forth a decent ERA in September, still had one of the worst ERA’s in all of baseball since the all star break. He average a home run ever fifth inning and an OBA over .320 since the break, while predominately struggling against left handed hitters. You can not draw up a worse matchup facing dangerous hitters from the left side, power hitters throughout, and pitching in a home run friendly ball park. His past struggles against the Yankees are to no surprise. Although the Twins bullpen got a needed day off yesterday, they still have been overworked of late.
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Burnett ended the season strong, but still is not pitching at top form. This is also a good match up for the less potent Twins lineup whose lack of extra base hits make it hard for them to put runs on the board. The reason is Burnetts high walk propensity (combined with the Twins patient at the plate) should materially increase the chances of the Twins putting on baserunners in order for them to manufacture runs. Burnett has also been more prone to the long ball this year, not ideal for this park. Despite not allowing a lot of runs against the Twins this year, his high WHIP against them suggests a lack of sustainability.
Twins/Yankees Over 9.5 -101
Medium
This is not a good match up for Blackburn, a pitcher whose derivative numbers are worse than his surface numbers. His FIP is over a third higher than his ERA, while his well hit ratio and BABIP also suggest he is not as good as he appears on the surface. Blackburn also seriously regressed during the second half of the season, and despite being able to put forth a decent ERA in September, still had one of the worst ERA’s in all of baseball since the all star break. He average a home run ever fifth inning and an OBA over .320 since the break, while predominately struggling against left handed hitters. You can not draw up a worse matchup facing dangerous hitters from the left side, power hitters throughout, and pitching in a home run friendly ball park. His past struggles against the Yankees are to no surprise. Although the Twins bullpen got a needed day off yesterday, they still have been overworked of late.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>Burnett ended the season strong, but still is not pitching at top form. This is also a good match up for the less potent Twins lineup whose lack of extra base hits make it hard for them to put runs on the board. The reason is Burnetts high walk propensity (combined with the Twins patient at the plate) should materially increase the chances of the Twins putting on baserunners in order for them to manufacture runs. Burnett has also been more prone to the long ball this year, not ideal for this park. Despite not allowing a lot of runs against the Twins this year, his high WHIP against them suggests a lack of sustainability.
