As the years and years go by the more I realize this is the truth. Most every game that you bet on can come down to a play here a play there. Don't get me wrong - it's fun and I will most likely do it forever at a break even pace. But bet sports for 25-30 years and it's a pretty damn good bet that your total wagers will be 50-50 wins/losses which means rake=you lose. Good luck!
Poker king Jim
<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> I think its more lucky not to get rivered at stars with the one outter
OR in live play for that matter ... last night LIVE game river that fucked me I was up about 460 at live 1-2 NL after playing the bigblind special with my 2/4 off and hitting 4 4 8 on flop about a 200 pot because the guy was fishing for his Flush on the river an called my 100 Bet on the turn
I get american Airlines and I raise to 11 4 callers flop A 6 10 OFF I bet 30 2 callers turn comes 4 I make it 80 the idiot calls with a one outer straight he has JK and hits a Q .... HEEE HAHHH donkey but I was pissed still cashed out up 315 for the session and that idiot goes on to lose his stack
<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> I think its more lucky not to get rivered at stars with the one outter
OR in live play for that matter ... last night LIVE game river that fucked me I was up about 460 at live 1-2 NL after playing the bigblind special with my 2/4 off and hitting 4 4 8 on flop about a 200 pot because the guy was fishing for his Flush on the river an called my 100 Bet on the turn
I get american Airlines and I raise to 11 4 callers flop A 6 10 OFF I bet 30 2 callers turn comes 4 I make it 80 the idiot calls with a one outer straight he has JK and hits a Q .... HEEE HAHHH donkey but I was pissed still cashed out up 315 for the session and that idiot goes on to lose his stack
When I think back over some 30 years of wagering, it is clear to me that luck means nothing as it evens out over the long run. What seperates a winner from a loser is that a winner will do everything possible to put himself on the side that has the best Mathematical chance of cashing whether it be Video Poker or sports wagering. Getting the best number and avoiding getting caught up in all the media hoopla is very important.
It's kinda like Deer hunting..... It took me years to figure out why the same hunters were always the ones getting their deer. Luck had very little to do with their success either !
Not disagreeing completely kermit because I know what you're saying.
Getting the best line is, of course, important at times.
But honestly......How many games does beating a 1/2 to 1 pt move really make a difference?
Take today's games for example.
How many teams just barely covered the spread on either side?
In the NBA, I can beat line moves on a consistent basis, but it rarely makes a difference as I am either on the right side and win by a good margin, or vice-versa. What's crazy is I have had success in the NBA the last several years, but like I just said, the wins, which are primarily totals, usually come by enough margin the line moves made no difference.
I believe if you handicap each game and take your time, than you increase your chances on picking the correct side. Sure the lines are set to get supposed equal betting on both sides, but there will always be some games, or some half times, or some team totals, etc that if chosen correctly, can be a decidedly easy win for you the capper.
Over the years I kind of changed my way of thinking and sum it up like this......If you spend quality time capping.......than you will automatically pick about 55% correct due to your handicapping. Another 30% you will be wrong with your quality handicapping and you will lose( I had one of those when I bet the Over on Mississippi-Alabama game). Than there is that 15% of games that you handicapped correctly and lost and/or handicapped wrong but pulled out a win. If you are a true handicapper and spend time handicapping, than it is this 15% that makes for a good to great season depending on what percentage of this 15% turns into wins vs losses!!!
If someone truly does pick at a 60% or 65% rate, it is because those certain games that fit into the 15% range fell your way.
Personally I don't believe in luck. Sure some strange things or things we didn't count on happen during a game to affect our wagers but it happened on the field.......that is why they play the game! Its that 15% of stuff happens......
With all this said, as I know some will agree, some will throw rocks at me in disagreement, and some will really not care...........I think LUCK comes into play if you don't really spend time handicapping and just pick away......
Just my thoughts.................good luck everyone.........it was kind of nice today....No handicapping......I took the day off and didn't even watch 1 minute of any NFL games........I guess that was dumb since I'm paying to be able watch all of them.......but I needed a day away
Over the years I kind of changed my way of thinking and sum it up like this......If you spend quality time capping.......than you will automatically pick about 55% correct due to your handicapping. Another 30% you will be wrong with your quality handicapping and you will lose( I had one of those when I bet the Over on Mississippi-Alabama game). Than there is that 15% of games that you handicapped correctly and lost and/or handicapped wrong but pulled out a win. If you are a true handicapper and spend time handicapping, than it is this 15% that makes for a good to great season depending on what percentage of this 15% turns into wins vs losses!!!
If someone truly does pick at a 60% or 65% rate, it is because those certain games that fit into the 15% range fell your way.
Personally I don't believe in luck. Sure some strange things or things we didn't count on happen during a game to affect our wagers but it happened on the field.......that is why they play the game! Its that 15% of stuff happens......
With all this said, as I know some will agree, some will throw rocks at me in disagreement, and some will really not care...........I think LUCK comes into play if you don't really spend time handicapping and just pick away......
Just my thoughts.................good luck everyone.........it was kind of nice today....No handicapping......I took the day off and didn't even watch 1 minute of any NFL games........I guess that was dumb since I'm paying to be able watch all of them.......but I needed a day away
Actually I kind of think he just means more of a 50-50 shot, rather than luck.
Nice analogy above SharpNSteady......:toast:
