Extremely rare 5 unit wager for me.. Long explanation...

gynecologist · Oct 14, 2009

Usually do not wager this amount of one play but I feel this is a wager that has a huge possibility of cashing..

5* DODGERS -120 to win Series...

Reasoning:

Dodgers fared very good against LHP all season, 2nd best OBP in the majors. Phillies 1-2 pitchers are lefties.

Home field advantage

Dodgers have power on the road, away from Dodger stadium.

Phillies best hitters are lefties and will be going against LHP Wolf and Kershaw in at least 4 of these games.. GL

Dodgers have the superior bullpen, they lock it down with Weaver in long relief, Kuo or Troncoso middle relief and lockdown Sherill and Broxton in the 8th and 9th.. Phillies BP is not even closely reliable.

Dodgers hitting is underrated and there isn't a weakness in the lineup

SS - R. Furcal (extremely dangerous veteran, is hot as anyone right now)

CF - M. Kemp (Future superstar hitting over .300, steals bases and has a ton of power)

RF - A. Ethier (30 HRS 100+ RBIs and is very hot right now)

LF - M. Ramirez (Manny is starting to heat up, has more postseason HRs than anyone and is always dangerous)

1B - J. Loney (13 HRs on the season, all on road.. Dangerous hitter who hardly ever strikeouts or hits into DPs)

3B - C. Blake (.280+ hitter, who has an OBP of .363 and has power)

2B - R. Belliard or Hudson (Both .280 hitters)

C - R. Martin (Definitely the weakest hitter, but he can get on base .352 OBP and has hit before so he is capable)

Dodgers infield defense is superb

Furcal Blake Beliard/Hudson and Loney(GREAT 1B)

SUPERB!!

Do the Phillies really have the better starting rotation? I'll agree Cliff Lee is a lockdown Ace but how about the other guys?

Hamels? 4.3 ERA .272 BA?
Pedro? How old is he? Hasn't played much
Blanton?

After Lee this rotation is far from intimdating..

Dodgers lost to the Phillies last season, I believe they learned from that game. They have a lot of young players who were experiencing their first playoff game.. They will be better prepared for this one.

Also last but not least, I simply think its Destiny that the dodgers make it to the World Series.. Its been too long and they have had so many comeback victories this season so many crazy comebacks too, things just coming together.. I think its a sign for something special..

I love the dodgers chances.. 5 units please.

sumday · Oct 14, 2009

Hey, like it a lot. Good luck! I might get in on that.

Troc22 · Oct 14, 2009

I think the difference in the series could be Cole Hamels. He has owned the Dodgers in his career. 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA & 26 K's. I think with his kid finally being born he can focus on pitching. He pitches better on the road and especially in LA. It's gonna be a great series!

bigtendominator · Oct 14, 2009

Troc22 said:
I think the difference in the series could be Cole Hamels. He has owned the Dodgers in his career. 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA & 26 K's. I think with his kid finally being born he can focus on pitching. He pitches better on the road and especially in LA. It's gonna be a great series!

I agree this series hinges on Hamels. If he pitches like last year. Lee/Hamels win their stars. Overall the lineups, i will give a slight edge to PHI. Bully- LA.

I think Philly finds a way to win in 6 and its unfortunately going to be NYY vs PHIL.

I hope LAA can pull it out.

SOUTHPHILLYBUDDA6 · Oct 14, 2009

toooo bad ur gonna lose money on this bet

phillies/yankees
world series

jwblue · Oct 14, 2009

I like the play.

I was hoping for the Rockies to take the Phillies to five games.

If they did, the Phillies starting rotation would have been screwed. They would have to start their #3 and #4 starters in games #1 and #2. Also, Hammels is not the same pitcher he was last year

Regardless, I think the Dodgers win this series.

DChosta · Oct 14, 2009

Haha alright gyno, i've been lookin' at this one since it came out too and finally decided to jump on the series play as well. Dodgers WILL go to the World Series and I will gladly lay down a couple units to put my money where my mouth is. Imagine it though, a freeway World Series vs. the Angles... a man can dream.

SOUTHPHILLYBUDDA6 · Oct 14, 2009

thats it even more jumping on board i love it.....
Same thing last year
dodgers
redsox
drays
all were favred over the phillies
nooone gave them a shot

vegas isnt dumb

the public is

let's go phillies!!!!!!!!!

DChosta · Oct 14, 2009

If you believe Brad Lidge is going to perform for Philly like he did last year, you should probably just start mailing me your money now. A bit contradictory with your avatar and name no?

SOUTHPHILLYBUDDA6 · Oct 14, 2009

dchosta said:
if you believe brad lidge is going to perform for philly like he did last year, you should probably just start mailing me your money now. A bit contradictory with your avatar and name no?

eagles blow lifelong cowboys fan....

buffettgambler · Oct 14, 2009

Solid post.

Have you ran individual game win probablities through a binomial distribution model to accurately gauge what your fair value is?

Agree with the huge bullpen disparity. Whether or not it is being reflected in the market price is questionable. An interesting topic would be whether going to a 3 man adds or subtracts value to the Phillies bullpen worth.

Best of luck.

$haggy · Oct 14, 2009

I'm with you on the Dodgers for the series, but I think the Dodgers will drop one of the first two games, so I'm gonna wait to see if I can get more value on a series bet at that time.

Hamels does own the Dodgers, but he hasn't been the same pitcher this season. He's struggled against other teams (not the Dodgers, lol)..

Wolf vs. Hamels is a mismatch, imo. I think the Dodgers might lose that game. I love our chances with Kershaw in game 2. Lee is an ace, but this Kershaw kid is unflappable.

If the Dodgers lose game 1 where do you think the series line will move to? +140? something along those lines? even +160??

The bullpen is where the Dodgers have a huge advantage. IF they can take the lead into the 7th inning, the game is over. Kuo and Sherrill MURDER left handed hitters (the Phillies lineup is full of them).

One variable will be Jayson Werth. He kills the Dodgers (being a former dodger, Im sure he plays with a chip on his shoulder against them), he's that right handed bat that can break up the string of lefties the Phillies send up. If he has a big series, things dont look good for the Dodgers.

What's good for the Dodgers is that they found a 3rd starter in Padilla. I wonder if they'll have Billingsley start game 4? Or do they go to a 3 pitcher rotation to get Wolf and Kershaw extra turns? I imagine it depends on what the series is at going into that 4th game.

Should be a good series either way.

jordan17 · Oct 14, 2009

Dont listen to these phi :homer:'s
Hamel's not the same, Lad takes the 1st game!
Bol :toast:

jtc1984 · Oct 14, 2009

Totatally agree gyno

Troc22 · Oct 14, 2009

i agree with you Shag. hamels hasnt benn the same but pitched much better in Aug n early sept. He was very shaky in his game against the rockies. I feel good about game one and think dodgers have a big edge with bullpen. Hoping for a long series. Should be fun here in philly!

gynecologist · Oct 14, 2009

I like the dodgers a lot in game one guys. Wolf is a solid pitcher and he is a better fit against the phils then the cards. I think the dodgers win the first two.

Doug · Oct 14, 2009

sounds good to me

$haggy · Oct 14, 2009

Kershaw was named game 1 starter:

http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/news/probable_pitchers.jsp?c_id=la

Akillies · Oct 14, 2009

kershaw to start game one, line on series moves up to -130 most places now

gynecologist · Oct 15, 2009

Love the Dodgers chances in game one.. Kershaw is a great pitcher, only weakness is that he walks a little too many batters but he still gets it done.. With Utley,Howard and Ibanez as lefties I love Kershaw's chances to get through their lineup..